Rasmussen confirms Sun Poll

[nickshepDEM]

O'Malley leads by 1% 49-48

Cardin leads Steele by 5% 50-45

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/2/83556/7992

We really need to http://www.martinomalley.com/page/s/GOTV">GOTV, so please signup and help.

[DaveinMD]

1. let me tell you a story

in 2000 Al Gore was trailing in all national polls, but won the popular vote. Why? Because all the polls underpredicted african american turnout. The Sun poll is predicting the AA share of the electorate at 19 percent. In 2004, it was 24 percent. In 2002, it was 22 percent. We are going to be OK.

[qanda]

2. And on top of that

They think blacks are fooled by the Republican trick to hide their stinkin' elephant behind a black face. A couple of the black callers on CSPAN this morning had it exactly right, if Steele gets more than 1% of the black vote then you'll know it's rigged. Perhaps that was a bit of an exaggeration, but we (black folks) know this race has a national impact and we're not fooled in the least.

[DaveinMD]

3. he'll get 15 percent

instead of 10 to 12, but that won't be enough.

[nickshepDEM]

4. Im worried about O'M.

It seems like he peaked at the wrong time while Ehrlich is peaking at a perfect time. I also read on a liberal Baltimore blog today that Democratic operatives are preparing for an Ehrlich/Harmon corruption rumor that is suppose to sink O'Malley.

On top of that Im worried about our GOTV vs. their GOTV.

Im freaking out here! :crazy: :woohoo: :crazy:

[CBHagman]

5. But I'm still going out there this weekend!

:hi:

Over my dead and decaying corpse these (insert very bad word here) will get in this time.

We know the right thing to do. Let's do it!

[DaveinMD]

6. yes

no doubt. We need to work hard. This race is still in our hands to win.

[yellowcanine]

7. O Malley figures to get more black votes than Cardin so this puzzles me.

I guess it is the imcumbent advantage. However, the recent stories about the Republicans planning to vigorously challenge voters has not figured in yet. That will likely boost black turnout and they won't be voting Republican.

[DaveinMD]

8. Cardin

is doing better with white voters and poll undersamples black voters.