Time to place our bets and have some fun

[becxx]

OK, let's all place our bets on the outcomes of Tuesday primary. Here in Ramsey County, the interesting races are governor and Ramsey County District attorney. Here's my bet:

Dayton will win the governor's nod because seniors will show up to vote for him.
Kelliher will come in second.
Entenza will take a bath.

For Ramsey County District attorney:

John Choi will win because he has DFL endorsement but he has few qualifications and seems to blab and blab about law and order. I think he will win just because he is on the sample ballot and no one really pays much attention to these little races.
David Schultz should win because he is most qualified. Also he has a record of supporting human rights.
Tammy Pust doesn't have a chance and has little experience.

That's my two cents. I am interested in what others have to say. If anyone knows much about David Schultz, I would love the inside scoop.

[CatholicEdHead]

1. Here is my order of what I think will happen

1. Anderson Kelihier
2. Entenza
3. Dayton

I just think that Dayton's ads will end up hurting him in out-state areas with many crossover GOP voters. They go over good in the Metro (and I agree with them) but probably not outstate.

[DFLforever]

2. Recent Survey USA poll had Dayton

carrying out-state (Western) MN 3-1, seniors 2-1. He and Entenza tied with Indies and he and Kelliher tied in the greater TC area.

A few people I've talked to were extremely disappointed with Margaret K's debate performance. Thought she was unwilling to commit herself to any solutions.

But she's a very well-organized woman who up until now has been able to turn out her supporters far better than any of her opponents.


Right now Mark's ahead in the polls. So we'll see who votes.

My guess:

1 Dayton
2 Kelliher
3 Entenza.

edit: typo

[Morning Dew]

4. I think the GOP crossover voters will vote for Dayton.

My thinking is that Emmer and the Republicans wants to face Dayton because they think they have more ammo against Dayton.


I think they misunderestimate Dayton by a mile.

[trotsky]

5. I think you're right.

And what I like about Dayton is that he's not polished, you don't think "politician" when he's talking. He gives the impression that he's above the fray, honest, and willing to work with others. In other words, all the things that Tom Emmer most definitely is NOT.

[dflprincess]

6. Turnout will be bad and the only ones who will show up on either side are the "true believers"

so hopefully Republican cross over won't have too much effect.

I agree with you that Dayton is underestimated. I was visiting some relatives in western Minnesota this weekend and, when the election came up, everyone of them (me included) is going with Dayton on Tuesday. All because they think he is a decent person and won't sell us out.

[Mnpaul]

7. misunderestimate?

That is saying it lightly. I read the wingnut comments over at the Trib and they think they can beat Dayton easily.

I think we will have to put them on a suicide watch come November. Reality is going to be painful.

[DFLforever]

3. I'm not eager to vote for Choi either.

I formed a poor impression of him at the SD64 convention. But it's more personal than professional. I just don't like him.

But I really know little about Schultz.

[ComoParker]

8. I can share a little more on David

I've known David and worked with him for a few years and I can say that he's a great attorney and an even better person. I am admittedly biased, but I think David is the most competent candidate in the race. I also know the high regard his colleagues have for his ability in the courtroom and managing attorneys. It has been my experience that he's interested in doing it the right way, even if the right way is not the easy way. He's not going to take the politically expedient path and I appreciate that he's willing to do that.

I've volunteered with the campaign and in all my years of campaigning, I've never seen a more grassroots effort (full disclosure, I wasn't in town for Wellstone - sadly) and I'm hoping it pulls him through on Tuesday (and in November).

[DFLforever]

15. Thanks for your reply.

I appreciate having your opinion of him.

[ComoParker]

9. Prognosticating (Poorly)

Kelliher - 33%
Dayton - 33%
Entenza - 29%

Story of the night is a too close to call race for Governor (recount???). Post-election analysis reveals a better than expected result for Entenza.

Ramsey County Attorney:

Choi and Schultz advance.

Ramsey County Judge:

Who knows. I'd like to see Ireland get through, particularly because I think he's handled the most complex cases of anyone in the field (Worked in the AG's office on Mortgage Fraud). I just have no idea.

[rmsyco]

10. Pust has plenty of experience

Full disclosure, I got a call from one of Pust's volunteers a few weeks ago and have decided I'll be supporting her (although I'm interested to learn more about Schultz as well - two will come through the primary, after all).

First off, I agree with your Choi analysis. Seems like a fine guy personally, but he has almost no trial experience and was a lobbyist before being appointed to his job in St. Paul.

I do like Schultz, but I'd like to hear a little more about what he's done in our area. Every time I see him talk he seems to focus on his work in Kosovo writing a judges manual and for a murder victim in Kenya (great stuff, but not exactly related to a Minnesota County Attorney's job...). I do like his prosecution experience and that he promises to continue to try cases.

Pust, conversely, seems very qualified both legally and as a civil servant. She spent four years as a criminal prosecutor where she was actually IN the courtroom (unlike Choi who it seems mainly served as an administrator). She was an Assistant Attorney General under Skip Humphrey where she was also Director of Children and Family Policy, working on juvenile crime initiatives and legislation to improve child support enforcement. She then went to the Department of Children, Families and Learning (now Education) where she was an Assistant Commissioner managing public employees (about 80 people) and public money (about $28 million). That was through two budget cuts and a state strike, and it was one of the employees who had been striking who was the volunteer who called me and she thought Pust was great. Pust is also on the Roseville City Council and is on community boards. This is all on her website/volunteer calls.

What really got me is that even though she's a DFLer with plenty of credentials (SD54 Director, Precinct Chair, worked on Skip's '98 campaign) she decided she was going to respect the fact that this is a nonpartisan race. She didn't seek endorsement for that reason. Now I'm hearing people lie about her being a Republican, which just seems ridiculous. Side point - if you saw Schultz in the cable debate, he did give a great answer about why he sought endorsement - he's not an established politician and it was a great learning experience.

Seems to me ideal situation would be Pust and Schultz making it through so we have a chance to learn a little more about both of them, but I think you're right. Choi's endorsement will get him through.

[DFLforever]

11. Absentee ballot total surpasses last 20 years

of Minn. primaries



http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/08/09/absentee-voting/


Looks like the Dayton campaign at work here with the senior vote.

[glinda]

12. Dayton, Kelliher then Entenza.

[ISUGRADIA]

13. Dayton Wins Tomorrow

Dayton 45%
MAK 35%
Entenza 20%

Sharon Anderson could win for AG on the GOP side which would be great for us. She'll get at least 40% of the vote.

[dflprincess]

14. Is that the same Sharon Anderson who beat the GOP endorsed candidate for AG several years ago?

At the time Steve Edelman and Sharon Anderson still had their afternoon TV show and it was generally assumed that too many low information voters turned up on the GOP side and thought they were voting for Sharon of "Steve & Sharon". That along with the voters who will pick anyone who has a last name ending in "-son".

:rofl:

[trotsky]

17. I'm with you - Sharon Anderson would be a formidable candidate purely on name alone.

For the two reasons you give. Minnesota voters are an odd bunch, going more with their feeling about a person rather than their party or positions. It's why my dad, a fairly staunch Republican, voted for Wellstone.

[Minnesota Raindog]

16. Have they thrown the first shovel of dirt on the Entenza campaign yet? n/t

[Lydia Leftcoast]

18. Yes, the Strib's website has him conceding

No surprise there.

[glinda]

19. I just sent imaginary flowers.

[glinda]

20. Dayton is loosing. I am bummed. I think Dems stayed home.

I also think Repubs voted against Dayton since Emmer was unopposed basically. They could afford to throw away votes. Stupid Dems.

[dflprincess]

21. The Strib's website is showing 53% reporting

and Kelliher and Dayton are only about 10,000 votes apart (41% to 39%). There is a long way to go though I'm wondering if the hot, muggy weather kept seniors home - that's where Mark's strength is.

[glinda]

22. I think Seniors tend to vote no matter what. I think if he looses it is on the hands of the younger

ones who said "oh I like them all or I don't car, etc....". And some possibly forgot.
I really really wanted mark to win. His heart is BIG and he is smart.

[Bjorn Against]

24. Don't give up hope yet

With 77% reporting only 4,000 votes separate Dayton and Kelliher, this is going to be a real nail-biter but Dayton has been slowly gaining ground for a long time now so I think he might just squeak by.

[mascarax]

25. Welcome back, Bjorn!

I miss your protest updates...you do such a good job.

[Bjorn Against]

26. Thanks...

It has been a crazy few months and haven't had much time to be posting online, I still make time for activism but I have had to take a break from writing because things have been hectic. I hope to be posting more often soon.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

23. However, the more precincts report, the more Dayton catches up

As for the seniors, my mother is voting for him in her nursing home.