Why doesn't Robin Carnahan just take on Jim Talent in '06?

[election_2004]

If Claire McCaskill runs against Jim Talent and loses in 2006, she's done in Missouri politics. She won't be State Auditor anymore, and she won't be able to challenge Babyface to a rematch in '08.

On the other hand, if Robin Carnahan challenges Talent and loses, she'll still have her office as Sos (and can run for reelection to it in 2008).

I'm not a Missourian, but from what I've been told, Jay Nixon is fairly unpopular among even Democrats.

So why can't someone talk Robin Carnahan into running in 2006? This may be the last chance that ANY Democrat will have to get Talent out of there. If Jim Talent wins again in 2006, I'm afraid he'll become so entrenched that he'll be a "senator for life."

And unless Babyface Blunt pulls a rabbit out of a hat between now and 2008, Claire McCaskill should be able to beat him in a gubernatorial rematch.

I'm sorry, but I REALLY despise Jim Talent. He's the Eddie Haskell of the U.S. Senate. Out of all the Republicans who were elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002, the only one who I hate more than Talent is John Cornyn.

[Rowdyboy]

1. Because she's been in office less than 6 months and people would

think she'd lost her mind if she ran for another office so soon after her first victory. I'm not from Missouri either but, from what I've been told, Jay Nixon is pretty popular with Missouri Democrats. I'll leave it to Missouri DUers to set the record straight cause I really have no way to know but I expect he'll be the gubenatorial nominee in 2008.

Why are you upset that Claire McCaskill is going to be the nominee to oppose Talent? She's the most popular Democrat in the state and lost the governor's office by only a few thousand votes.

As I understand it, Nixon is only bowing out for 2006. He probably will run for governor in 2008. If not, why can't Carnahan get a full term's experience and then run against Blunt?

[election_2004]

6. I'm not upset about McCaskill....

I like Claire McCaskill, and I'd LOVE to see her knock off Talent. I just wouldn't want to see her end up losing that race and becoming an asterisk in Missouri state political history. I think Claire deserves to advance to higher office, and she'd have an easier time becoming Governor.

Has Claire announced she's running against Talent? Because you sound confident that she will be the senatorial nominee next year.

[nickinSTL]

10. I can't speak for all of Missouri

but I do NOT like Jay Nixon.

From what I've heard, he does not represent my interests much better than Blunt.

[proud2BlibKansan]

12. Nixon was state AG during the deseg trial for KC

and argued against the school district. He made quite a few enemies in KC then. The teacher's union was a party in that lawsuit and I was a member. When Nixon ran for re-election, the leadership of the union said that for the first time in its history, they were advising members to vote AGAINST a dem in a state election. It was a pretty nasty trial. It has been nearly 15 years now but Nixon still has a lack of support in KC.

[proud2BlibKansan]

14. Nixon is not popular in KC

and I believe I have heard the same about St. Louis.

But the way Baby Blunt is doing so far, it could be that any Dem can beat him in 08.

I am not sure about the US Senate though. What's wrong with Jean Carnahan? I thought she was great.

[cornermouse]

15. I was very disappointed with Jean Carnahan.

No spunk. No spine.

[proud2BlibKansan]

16. She stood up to the chimp

on No Child Left a Dime. That won me over.

[Darkhawk32]

2. I spoke personally with former Governor Roger Wilson a couple of weeks ago

He said he really doesn't WANT to run for Senator because of the headache of trying to raise money for the campaign. Plus, he'd have to endure all the lies that would come from the Republicans with little or no chance to refute them in the media. I'd say Roger Wilson is a longshot to run.

The national Democratic party has been trying to push Claire into running against Talent in '06, but I'd still say it's a 50/50 proposition.

Chuck Graham, State Senator from Columbia, has stated to me and to the media that he will NOT be running for the U.S. Senate slot, because he is the new campaign lead for the Missouri Democratic party.

Right now, there's a real void in top-end Democratic leadership.

[election_2004]

7. So does that mean Talent gets a free pass?

If Democrats cede this race to Talent early-on, that just allows the RNC to redirect more financial resources to the Montana, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota U.S. Senate races.

Plus I think Talent would be angling for a leadership position in the GOP Caucus, if he's reelected in '06.

[Darkhawk32]

9. I certainly hope it's not a free pass. Talent is one of the most...

vulnerable Senate seats there is in '06. We need SOMEBODY to step up to the plate.

[usregimechange]

3. Nancy Farmer?

If Claire doesn't run. She is sharp and has more name rec now.

[scratchtasia]

4. Yes, but...

I really like Nancy Farmer, but she'd have to run a much better campaign this time. In 2004 she was nearly invisible.

[usregimechange]

8. Talent has that same problem. Clearly McCaskill is our best shot

[xmas74]

5. She hasn't been in office long enough.

IMHO, she has a long career ahead of her in politics. She's not even going to consider '06. She'll wait until '08 and then make a decision on where to go. Her and Nixon's names have both been thrown around for gov. Her name has also been thrown around for Senate against Bond (and it has to be someone high profile against Bond. She has the family name so it might become a possibility).
Let her have time to adjust to her office and build a reputation. That is all she needs to focus on at this moment.

[GumboYaYa]

11. One simple answer: Money.

It's the problem that faces every Democrat. It will take a good bit of money to run this race. Claire is still in debt from her gubenatorial run. She can't use federal election money to pay that debt so she has a disincentive to seek any federal position until that debt is paid. The Carnahans, have been tapping their donors heavly the past two years. Russ is still carrying debt from his Congresional run (although he probably paid that this quarter). Jean has been making lots of calls to raise money for Russ. They will have to keep that up through 06 just for his Congressional seat. Throw a Senatorial campaign on top of that and the Carnahan donors are going to start getting election fatigue.

[Terran]

13. I think the Dems need to keep Robin in Reserve

She's a very likeable and natural person with incredibly good name recognition; she should definitely finish her term, not run in '06, and I think run for a second term as SOS in '08, to really establish her creds. From there I bet she could go on easily to be Governor, and after that, who knows?

[rwheeler31]

17. What about the House members ?

Ike Skelton is very good on military needs. Emanual Cleaver has good name recognition.

[Terran]

18. True, but--

my take on Missouri electoral politics after 11 years here is that the parties almost never will run someone from the Legislature for statewide office, unless he or she is a prominent figure like Peter Kinder was. I mean if you look at who's been run for governor the poast ten years, it's almost always someone trying to move up from a "lower" statewide office. I've heard that the parties will never run anyone from the big cities for Governor, ever, because they don't believe they can win in the rural areas; so Legislators have the handicap of being from just one place, without a statewide 'base'. I'm from California originally, and I don't think this was nearly as important there, but maybe I'm wrong.

[election_2004]

20. Or...

Maybe Robin could challenge Kit Bond in 2010 (or run for his open seat, if Bond retires)?

[AllegroRondo]

19. What about Gephardt?

is he at all interested?

[election_2004]

21. I thought....

Didn't Gephardt indicate that his career is politics is basically over?

[AllegroRondo]

22. True, but so did Walter Mondale