Nevada you might get to pick the next President

[Lefty48197]

Here's a link to an analysis I did of the electoral votes for the upcoming Presidential election.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1341436

I think it's pretty clear that Nevada will have a big say in November. What's the mood of the voters? Is Yucca Mountain going to swing things our way?

[T Roosevelt]

1. Any thoughts on Reid as the VP?

[Lefty48197]

2. I think it's a great idea!

I hadn't heard his name mentioned before, but he's a natural fit. With Nevada having the power to put us over the top, Reid would be a natural. His environmental record would probably go over well in the 'green' states where we're having trouble like Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, and Washington.

[Hornito]

3. Harry's a great guy, but his soft-spoken personality is not

"national campaign" ready. He's also a Mormon, which could also be a problem. And besides, Nevadan's like Harry right where he is. He has a lot of power in D.C., and for Nevada, a small population state, seniority of their Congressional members is very important.

[Will Bison]

9. Harry as VP?

Not while I'm still punchin' the chad outa my ballot. We uns is hagin on to that Boy.

[Hornito]

4. As far as the upcoming election goes, I think Kerry will take the

state. Bush won by the slimmest of margins last time, and Las Vegas has added another several hundred thousand people, the majority of whom are Democrats. Las Vegas, the state's largest city, and where 85% of the population lives, is a Democratic city, and a union stronghold. Reno, is mostly Republican, but they are less a factor every year.

And yes, Yucca Mountain will be a factor. Pray that Kerry doesn't pick Edwards for Veep though, because he fully supported Yucca Mountain, much to consternation of most Nevadans. Edwards made a lot of enemies, including me, over that vote. Wes Clark for Veep would guarantee the state, ...by 15 points.

Of concern though, is the lousy (sorry, I call it like it is) organizing the Dems are doing. Kerry's group is pretty weak, and better get moving. Harry Reid almost lost his last election, and we lost the governorship, in part, because of the big casino (read: Republican) influence, but more because the state Party organization was really, really, lame. You couldn't get signs, bumper stickers, or any support, unless you lived in Vegas, and even then it was iffy. Someone needs to kick the state Party honchos in the butt, and tell them to get busy. Are you listening Kerry headquarters people?????

[Punkingal]

5. I agree about our state party....

they are a bunch of incompetents! I met someone at the Move-On voter registration event last night who said she called the party headquarters 2 months ago and offered to volunteer, and has heard nothing back from them.

[TankLV]

7. I had exactly the same experience when Herrera was running last time.

Asked for yard signs this time around months ago - so far - nothing.

If it wasn't for Shelley's PERSONALLY better run campaign and staffing, we wouldn't even have her.

It as solely due to HER efforts, and the staff SHE selected, that she's doing so great.

The democratic organization here is pretty bad, IMO.

But, the good news is, its'a a small state, and a concerted effort by a small group of energitic individuals CAN make a BIG difference.

All the democratic clubs are either primarily "social" coffee clubs, like the Paradise Dem club, or too one-issue, like the Stonewall Dems, who are having in-house personallity clashes currently.

I burned out the last election cycle - and would do it again, but work is taking all my time - and I wouldn't be dependable.

I volunteered to just work on a campaign and went home as precinct captain here in Henderson.

We were very organized.

Wanted to continue the meetings and stuff from right after the last election, but no-one wanted to do it - we a disbanded.

Got to make it easy, take little bites, do it all year round, all the time, instead of just crankging up every 3 1/2 years for a big push. That way, all the great amount of necessary tasks are spread out over a long period, and more can be done with less effort.

NEED YOUNG PEOPLE - last meetings I attended were 99% retirees.

[Nevernose]

6. We have a state party?

I've been here (LV) since '89, and the state machine has been winding slowly down ever since.

Yucca Mountain won't be much of a factor -- it sure as hell didn't stop Nevada from electing Bush (who, rather than claiming to be against it, said that he'd let "sound science" make the decision) or Ensign (who is all for Yucca Mountain).

[Bombtrack]

8. My take is that Nevada won't decide it unless we also win West Virginia

as you know every Gore state (not including Florida of course) gives us 260 EV's. We need another 10 to win. Nevada has 5 and West Virginia has 5, but the next biggest of the clear tossup states that Bush won last time is Missouri, with eleven.

[caldem]

10. Request for information

I want to get some background on a former Nevada Senate GOP candidate. Hal Furman, ran for Senate in 1994. Can anyone give me the rundown on him, any dirt, etc?

Thanks