New poll puts DeWine in lead

[johnnie]

"U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine is closing the gap and even pulling ahead in the race to keep his seat, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.

Republican DeWine is in a fight for survival against Democratic U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown of Avon.

The Bliss poll has DeWine ahead by 1.3 percent -- well within the three-point margin of error -- among all voters.

Among likely voters, the race is even closer, with Brown behind by 0.2 percent."

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/politics/15729737.htm?source=yahoodist&content=ohi_news



Anyone see that new DeWhine ad that has a woman who had a brother killed in Iraq? :eyes:

[geiger]

1. Bliss Institute is run by a bunch of conservatives

What do you mean only 1.3 percent within a three point margin of error. If the results were statistically significant he would be ahead by at least four points.

I saw the tail end of the ad you asked about this morning. She's mad about something! or mad at Sherrod for something. It was weird.

[Deep13]

2. Is their polling data flawed?

"Bliss Institute"? Sounds like Fundy stuff.

[geiger]

3. Bliss is somebody's name. I havent looked at the poll; but

sometimes these polls are useless when you do examine them closely.

My question here was to interpretation not the basis of the poll itself.

And, I guess I do find it hard to believe that DeWine could be ahead in any poll anywhere, however slight. We're looking at runaway races here; I don't even see how Betty Montgomery can win while so much shit went down on her watch. She needs to be our target now, and she deserves to go down in flames, too, I dont care if people think "she's a nice person."

BTW, who out there DOES have the anti-Montgomery talking points. That will give me something new to do, work on putting them "out there."

[geiger]

20. interesting analysis of Bliss survey by Steve Hoffman @ Beacon Journal

Economics over social issues
http://blogs.ohio.com/governor/

[adeshell]

4. Before Foley Scandal?

Looks like the poll was taken before the Foley scandal by the looks of the dates. I think that will put Dewine down by a couple of points at least.

[Deep13]

5. 8/20-9/29

That's more than a month with the most recent being almost two weeks ago. Other polls put Sherrod ahead during that time.

[Kukesa]

6. DeWine's New Ad May be in Trouble

From the "Dayton Daily News" -- DeWine's use of soldier in ad may violate Defense Department rule. Soldiers barred from being in uniform in partisan political activities, spokesman says.

snip

In July, the DeWine campaign pulled an image of a burning World Trade Center from a campaign ad because the image was a fake. The ad continued to air without the doctored image.


Link here:

http://tinyurl.com/ye6k7g

[mtnester]

7. DeWine and his people are such TOOLS

I firmly believe come decision day, DeWine will be OUT..and you want to know why?

It is stupid I know, and the Other Paper was DEAD on right...DeWine looks worse than Brown. DeWine does not sell himself well on TV, and people tend to grimace or become uncomfortable when watching him...whereas Sherrod Brown has that gravelly trustable voice, wearing the "blue collar shirt" with no tie in most of his commercials.

DeWine cannot sell himself as good as Brown can, and he is overdoing his own appearances in his commercials, and it hurts him.

As I said before, stupid reason, but it is a valid one at this point as one of the reasons why DeWine will fail to get re-elected.

[Kolesar]

8. Dewine was never Mayor of Cleveland or Governor of Ohio

He has never earned name recognition or achieved much to give him headlines, so he is still an unknown. It is now less than four weeks from the election and he is still trying to define himself. I don't know who would find that gap-toothed grin of his to be appealing, either.

[femrap]

9. Dewhine is one short, ugly human...

he resembles a variety of species of the rodent family...don't you think?

Ferrets are cute compared to Dewhine....so are opossums.

[Deep13]

10. Yes, but is he leading or not?

[Kolesar]

11. The Bliss poll was analyzed at www.dailykos.com

Sorry I don't have the link now.
IIRC:
1. It was an old poll from a few weeks ago
2. This is "the only" poll w/ DeWine even close.
3. I don't recall if the DKos people felt the polling technique was inappropriate (sample size, questions asked, ratio of Dems/Gops, etc.)
www.dailykos.com

[WCGreen]

16. Isn't the Bliss poll conducted in conjunction with Akron U

[MGD]

17. This site is great for answering questions like that:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Deep13]

12. Not so fast!

SurveyUSA 10/12/06

Sherrod Brown, on our side (D) 54%
Mike I'm an Evil Elf DeWine (R) 40%

http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=OH&race=senate_race

[Kukesa]

13. Whew! That's better! nt

[Deep13]

14. Better still:

For governor race:

same poll:

Ted reality-based preacher Strickland (D)- 60% are you fucking believing that?!
Ken token Black Klansman Blackwell (R)- 32% is that even possible?

[violetandblue]

19. LOL!

You guys are hilarious with those comments! I sure hope those governor numbers are right! Did you hear that Blackwell approached Ted in a hotel lobby and asked him if he would do a fourth debate? Ted said that he'd have to get back to him about it, and Blackwell stormed off w/o saying anything. Ha, ha, he just needs to give up - what does he think another debate will do?

[Deep13]

15. Rassmusen: Brown 48%; DeWine 42% 10/13/06.

:woohoo:

[MGD]

18. Survey USA has Brown: 54% Dewine:40% on 10/11/06

It looks like the only Republican who should be more scared than Dewine is Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

[sandrakae]

21. Only polls on this planet count.