If you had to pick, which factor do you think most influenced the HRC win in Ohio?

[geiger]

Comments welcome, too! Thanks.

[Maeve]

1. Obama won the cities, Clinton won the rural areas

Just tossing that in for consideration...

[Kukesa]

2. Race had a great deal to do with it.

I hear racial slurs about Obama every day and they disgust me. I hear them in the Dayton area, where I live, in Cincinnati, and from friends and relatives who live in the Youngstown area.

I could never repeat some of the things I've heard and am surprised that people I formerly respected would say such things.

At lunch the other day (with five people who do not follow politics as closely as you and I) my lunch mates ASSUMED I wasn't an Obama supporter. They assumed because I'm Caucasian. When I'd heard enough and announced my support, they were flabbergasted and tried to change my mind. Their arguments were pure racism and I will decline having lunch with them again.

Hell, they probably won't invite me to eat with them again. I'm better off.


(BTW, I posted this in another thread but feel it needs repeating.)

[geiger]

3. It took courage to do what you did; unfortunately, even if one would say nothing, they would be a

collaborator.

I work in academia and when I go back to the "real world" sometimes, I am shocked by things that people think and say out loud.

That being said, I've worked on race relations committees and been accused by blacks of being racist when I didn't agree with every single thing they said. So, it goes both ways, albeit the point of what we are discussing here.

Sigh.

[MeDeMax]

17. Ignoring or avoiding racism

typically doesn't improve the situation in my experience.

I don't advocate going to blows about it, but you can open their eyes nicely.

Most of the time, people are racist because they were taught/raised that way. People aren't inherently hateful, but if mom or dad or grandpa or grandma or uncle or aunt always spoke of x people in a certain way, most of us wouldn't question it growing up.

When we reach adulthood, depending on where we live/work we either revisit our beliefs or carry on believing what we always believed. In Ohio, unless you live in a population center you don't often run into minorities.

Given a chance, or a need to do so, most people start questioning their racist beliefs, which more often than not leads to opening their minds.

I would have a lunch with them again and tell them nicely that he is a Harvard Grad and so is Michelle and that he was one of the brightest lawyers coming out of Harvard, who walked out of the limelight and went straight to the streets in Chicago to better the lives of the despairing youth.

Thanks for the post K.

[Kolesar]

4. Hard work by Team Hillary

Heretofore, it had been that when Obama started to campaign in a state, his "numbers" started going up rapidly. He has been improving at campaigning and in recent weeks his speeches were even better. So, his recent campaigns were dazzling.

The Clinton team realized that they better get their act together. Their campaign literature was good. I recall the commercials did not insult my intelligence. Her friend Governor Strickland was definitely an asset.

I saw Bill Clinton speak in my home town and he wasn't a dick. All that adds up to an effective campaign. I think I learned something.

[geiger]

5. she IS a hard worker, can't EVER take that away from her. eom

[Maeve]

6. I would add one other thing--why Hubby voted Clinton

He wants to see the two continue to fight it out, to bring out a better sense of how each works under pressure--the "character" issue.

And about that race thing--#2 Son overheard someone (young, southern Ohio female) insist that "we're supposed to be killing Arabs, not electing them" and "as a white person, how could you THINK of voting for a black?" :eyes: Needless to say, #2 Son was furious and made sure the bigot's supervisor heard of the incident.

[OhioBlue]

7. I think it was the negative campaign

combined with bringing out the worst in people's prejudices about race and religion.

When they looked at the ballot and saw the funny name - all the rumors and things they heard registered.
Hillary Clinton's name is known and feels safe.

All of the things leading up to election day reinforced the negatives in the backs of peoples minds. Hillary controlled the airwaves. She got all the free press and her sound bites and commercials were played over and over.

Be afraid. (Children asleep - phone ringing)
Hillary was attacked by Obama (Shame on you Barack Obama)
Barack is a Muslim - chain mail and repeated over and over in the Public, in right wing media and even hinted at or not denied by the Clinton campaign. Farrakhan. Not as far as I know
Barack won't say the Pledge or wear a lapel pin - repeated over and over in the Public, by right wing.
I saw many posters on DU saying things like they fear Obama. I'm sure that was a talking point from HRC campaign.

The Obama campaign needs to take back the message so that Obama is change, fresh and new is what registers in people's minds. I'm sure since she already threw everything at them and they held the line, it will be much different in the following weeks.

[Deep13]

8. HC visited Ohio much more often than O.

Gov. Strickland was actively stumping for her.

She is much more appealing in a personal setting than at rallies and she had a chance to do that.

The more folks get to know Obama, the less they like him. They know an empty promise when they hear it.

[Riley133]

14. Absolutely agree 110%. Obama fatigue is setting in. nt

[Kukesa]

15. No Obama fatigue here. n/t

[VolcanoJen]

19. What I learned as that people in Ohio are different.

And that it's a very big state.

In Cincinnati, you wouldn't have even known Hillary was running. There was a smattering of signs on street corners, but I never saw any real activity. I wrote about it a lot over at GD:P. And of course, Hamilton County was the site of Obama's best performance. He did so well in the cities compared to the rural areas that you really have to acknowledge how different we are, regardless of the media's lazy lumping of all of us, together.

We're most definitely not together.

But I reject your sweeping generalization on its face, based on what I saw, and based on the way the vote shook down.

[MeDeMax]

20. I don't understand the empty promise part

I agree that Ted was actively campaigning for her, the entire Ohio dems operation probably worked for her too.

I don't get the empty promise part.

[Riley133]

22. The Iraq War

A SC campaign manager called into talk radio (left) and said that Senator Obama 'hoped' to get the troops out of Iraq by his FOURTH year in office. Senator Obama himself has admitted that once he is privy to the highest intelligence, things could change. (A Republican pointed that out to me - I had to find the transcript of 60 Minutes to read it myself.) Add to that the desire to increase troops and funding for Afghanistan - and a possible invasion of Pakistan based on intelligence received and suddenly one realizes that there's a distinction between being anti-war and anti-IRAQ war.

While his desire to end the war in Iraq may be honorable and perhaps strategically smart, if it doesn't happen quickly the resulting effect could be devastating and seen as, indeed, an empty campaign promise.

[AngryOldDem]

9. I'm the lone Other vote.

I looked at all your choices and I can't decide among negative campaigning, race, or the fact that people think they were better off with Bill.

All are equally contributory, IMO.

[geiger]

10. ya gotta luv Ohio....

we are paradoxical, schizophrenic, wise, stupid, diverse, over-achievers, poor, rich....

[Kukesa]

11. Grannies, stupid, RWers, hicks, etc. is what we were called

over in GD-P.

I like your description much better.

[AngryOldDem]

12. Or, there's this, which is oh-so elegant:

We are enigmas wrapped in mysteries.

(I knew my English degree would come in handy someday!)

:D

[geiger]

13. oh, thank you so much, as me myself a double-degreed "cross-over " history major

priceless..

[Vet31203]

16. Hopefully, either way we have

a unified party in November

[geiger]

18. It truly makes me sad that "racial prejudices" are obviously still a factor.....

Sigh.

[MeDeMax]

21. I think it's worse with first generation immigrants

if you recall the controversial words of Vicente Fox - "we are doing jobs in America that not even the black people want".

If you were following MSNBC & CNN interviews with Hispanic immigrants over the past few weeks and interviews with Asians in California & Washington state, they overwhelmingly said they couldn't vote for Barack over Hillary because he is black.

I pray we will see the last of this nonsense this election cycle.

I was happy to see that race wasn't a factor in the Potomac states and Agricultural states out west.

[fliesincircles]

23. Voted other...

People like Hillary. And they voted for her. Nothing sinister.

[Kukesa]

24. Welcome to our Ohio forum! I checked your profile

and it'll be good to have someone from your neck of the Ohio woods contributing.

Don't be a stranger.

Although I disagree with your premise about people liking Hillary . . .

:hi:

[fliesincircles]

27. Thanks for the welcome

Nothin wrong with disagreement.

They like her way more than I do. She comes across as a fighter, and folks like it. She really campaigned here also. If Obama had done the same, he might have done better. Honestly, there was NO visible Obama campaign.

Bill came and talked at a local high school. He never mentioned Obama. Just here's Hillary's plan, here's how were gonna do it and here's the results we expect. And he didn't dumb the information down.
Man was that refreshing.

Alot of folks I speak to think of a vote for Hillary as a twofer. Bill comes with the package.

Just my two cents.

[Kukesa]

28. No Obama campaigning in most rural areas. Mistake?

I think so. He drew 12,000 here in Dayton and more than that in Cinci, Cleveland, and Columbus.

I don't understand why he focused on the metropolitan areas only. Guess his ground game wasn't as good as I had hoped. Or maybe they wrote-off Ohio. Who knows?

[fliesincircles]

30. See post #29

Hillary got him his rural votes in the GE. The only way he loses them is if he ignores them like he did last week, or like Kerry and Gore did.

[OhioBlue]

35. I live in rural Ohio

I worked with an Obama staffer - he had 2 counties, total of about 150k population. He held record canvasses, we did phone banking and wrote letters to the editor. Gov. Sebilius and Rich Cordray visited the area. But, so did Bill and you can imagine who got better coverage. I'm not complaining - obviously the former President visiting is a much bigger story.

They could've had a better ground game, but in all fairness, they didn't have any local party infrastructure to depend on and Hillary did.

[OhioBlue]

25. she has name recognition and people want a Dem

that was it - it wasn't that they all "like" her.

She went big time negative and those were the clips shown over and over on the TV. She did or said something outrageous daily so that was played on all the news programs. She got her free press. She controlled the message. It might have been a good strategy for 2 weeks in Ohio, but it was a poor overall strategy. It isn't sustainable and it doesn't help the Dem party. It was divisive.

[Riley133]

26. Obama was promising no taxes for seniors making under $50K among other things..

(from my little corner of Ohio based on many conversations)

Obama just wasn't believed - he really was seen as someone who would say anything to get elected.

Not saying that Hillary is any better, but people relied on what they know and the fact that Hillary's constituents feel she does a good job. Remember that Nightline did a story on his Illinois experience just before the primary and it wasn't exactly good - and worse, Obama refused to comment. Add to that the feeling of empty promises and there you go.

[OhioBlue]

32. Well, sometimes perception is everything

and that just makes the point that I was trying to make - Hillary's negative campaign and the Clinton strategy of blocking Obama's message and free media was effective in Ohio.

Edit to add:
I would say that Obama's constituents feel that he does a good job considering how big he won his State. That's why I said perception is everything... I don't doubt what you heard, it was a product of the negative campaign tactics and Clinton playing the media better.

[fliesincircles]

29. Yes she does and yes they do.

I have to disagree with the "2 weeks in Ohio." My impression was that she was running for President and not the nomination. Which makes sense if you see how she blew off the early red state caucuses. Looks like that strategy might be her undoing.

I see alot of absolute trashing of Hillary, and how she is tearing the party apart. I don't buy it.
Her campaign worked real hard in more moderate areas, with Bill and Strickland, not only talking about her, but about the importance of the down ticket candidates.

The candidates in November are going to reap this work tenfold. Obama supporters may cry about negative advertising or whatnot, but she worked hard for the Dem ideas and the locals. If Obama wins OHIO in November you can bet your ass its because of Hillary.

[OhioBlue]

31. I think Obama will win Ohio for the GE, but I think that is in spite

of what Hillary did in Ohio. She went negative and not only gave the right wing talking points, but created division in many local parties. Before she went negative all the talk I heard with party regulars was how we have two great candidates and everyone would be happy to support either. (That is among party regulars - Many people that identify themselves as Dems or Indies that vote Dem but are not really involved in the local parties have high negatives of her and IMO she didn't make much ground there)

After her negative strategy, we have people involved in the local party saying they will never vote for Hillary, we have Hillary supporters parroting her talking points and much animosity in the local parties at a time that we need to be working together to fund raise for the November election.

And, if what you say is true that she was running for Pres rather than the nomination from the beginning, then in my mind that shows arrogance and poor judgment.

Edit to add:
And as far as Strickland and Bill stumping and talking about Democratic values and down ticket races, I would expect that from our Democratic Governor and our former Democratic President - not because of Hillary -but because it is what they SHOULD do no matter who the nominee is. Unfortunately since they both went negative on Obama, that may hurt us in the general.

[fliesincircles]

33. We see different things.

In my view, Hillary's campaign helped the down ticket races. Strickland and Bill would not have been as involved without her campaign.

For my district to have a chance of a Dem Congressman after 32 years makes me thrilled that Hillary campaigned here. Regardless of the candidate in November, these candidates got their names in the voter's heads in March instead of Sept. or Oct. That is not party splitting in my view.

Obama's campaign did nothing for these candidates. No effort. This is not an opinion. Obama's campaign was invisible here. Interesting tidbit here, the first piece of primary campaign lit I received in the mail was Barack's attack on Clinton's Nafta stance.

If there is a spazzing county chair somewhere that is freaking over Clinton's negative ads, I'm sorry to hear that. The local party people I've seen are OK.

People get very passionate about their candidates. I totally understand, even if I don't see what they do. When I hear people say they will never vote for their party nominee, they really shouldn't be involved with that party. Statements like that are party splitting.

Peace

[OhioBlue]

34. Sounds like you are in the 16th

me too. No county chairs spazzing over Clinton's ads. I do know local party officials that sent out hate e-mail against Obama tho. I feel that is much more serious than people that don't believe in someone and don't feel like that candidate should be given their vote.

Personally, I didn't get lit from the campaigns b/c I recently moved. But, my babysitter got 4 negative pieces of lit from Hillary and several robocalls. I saw staff from the Obama campaign at 2 local dem events, Hillary's at one. I know Gov. Sebilius visited the area - but she didn't get the coverage like Bill did. So, it wasn't that the Obama campaign wasn't here, they just didn't get the coverage or support from local parties - from my perspective.

If you are in the 16th - I really think Obama helps Boccieri more. You can see the R vote was kinda split between Miller and Schuring. I think a lot of R voters are disillusioned with McCain and not likely to vote. Unless Hillary is the nominee - I think they will be more likely to come out and vote against her. Again, just my opinion.

[Kukesa]

36. I hope you sent those Obama hate emails to his campaign.

There's a place on his site, called Watchdog, that requests those emails so they can fight 'em (I guess).

My husband received a pornographic Photoshop of Hillary and Barack (need I say more?) and I was tempted to send it to the campaign, but thought better of it; there's no way they can fight that kind of garbage.

Is it November yet?

[OhioBlue]

37. I did send them to the guy I was working with from the

Obama campaign. If nothing else, it helps prepare them for PA. I'm thinking of looking up a random county party in PA and sending letters to the central committee members - nothing negative on Hillary just positives on Obama.

[fliesincircles]

38. Howdy Neighbor

Maybe we get to work together in Nov. Wouldn't that be a hoot. I haven't confirmed the numbers, but it was mentioned to me that the totals in the Boccieri/Cirelli primary were higher than any of Regula's opponents in the general. That is really good news.

I think Dem turnout is more important than the R's staying home. Schuring did very poorly outside Stark, so there is no love for him there. The turnout in Stark approached 50% which bodes well for Boccieri.

Good to hear that Obama's people were here. There's alot of Dem votes here, it just seems the national campaigns don't seem to think they're important.

Peace

[Hilliard_Dem]

39. I voted Economy but I probably should have voted Other.

The economy is a very high priority for Ohioans right now, but I think maybe a bigger factor is just that the Clintons have been building a "relationship" with Ohio over many years. It's not that people don't like Obama; they're just happy and comfortable with Hillary and don't see Obama offering anything new. Besides that, Obama is still something of an unknown (and I don't mean in terms of name recognition). Also, I think Hillary has a more populist message that appeals to Ohioans.