Hump vs Coburn

[OKNancy]

This is a sort of test....I can't seem to post in the thread about the Oklahoman poll.

Don't we want Humphreys to win? He seems to be much easier to beat than Coburn.

[RoyGBiv]

1. I think so...

I can't find the poll I base this on, so take it for what it's worth.

From my understanding, Humphreys polls worse among OKC moderate Republicans because of his (lack of) performance as mayor of OKC. Running him against Carson, who is himself a moderate to right-leaning Democrat, would likely be more favorable to a Democratic victory if the voting comes down to OKC voters.

Coburn is more of a nut, but he has broader popular appeal and not the same level of negatives in OKC, in part because they don't know him. Or, if they do, his nuttiness is something they can deal with since it is based on religious fundamentalism. And, you know how that plays to an OK audience.

Right now, I don't know that it matters a great deal which Republican is selected. They've both polled against Carson within the margin of error, so both are essentially even races. My concern is the large number of undecided voters and who captures their attention. If Democrats can rally around Carson, despite what many of us might think of him personally, we may be able to capitalize on a hard-fought Republican primary.

[OKNancy]

2. My thinking

was also that Coburn could pull votes away from Carson in the east and little dixie. If Carson can get big numbers there it might be enough to overcome the Oklahoma City/Lawton vote.

As a side note. I was thinking it would be great if Clark was on the Presidential ticket with Kerry because Clark was very strong down in southwestern Oklahoma. I could see Carson wanting Clark to campaign with him..( Edwards too I suppose, but Edwards was strong in the same place that Carson is strong) I know he won't want Kerry to step foot here.

[RoyGBiv]

3. Clark...

I agree. I am hoping that as a part of the decision making for VP Kerry's people are considering this. Despite what gets said a lot, statistics show that VP choices don't have a significant impact on the Presidential race itself, but those same statistics show that they can influence Congressional races. Seems odd, but there it is. It's very important that the Democrats make a concerted effort with the Senate races, and a Clark VP would, I believe, significantly help the Democrat's chances in the Senate race here. There's no chance of Kerry taking OK in the Presidential race, but a good VP choice might bring more Democrats to the polls who vote the straight ticket.

I also know there are other important Senate races, but Oklahoma is one of the big ones -- taking a Senate seat from a Republican who has held the seat for so long would be a major victory.

Gotta go...tornados coming. :scared: