Riley poll - KGW has warned on R oversample in this, but it's interesting

[swag]

to look at:

http://www.kgw.com/news/pdf/rileypoll.pdf

Things are looking very good so far for our Congessional incumbents, though I'm still suspicious of a heinous smear by Goli Ameri against David Wu. That's just how the people Ameri surrounds herself with like to play. Maybe she does too.

Doesn't look like Francesconi stands a fucking chance in the PDX mayor's race.

Bad news: Amendment 36 enjoys support, at least according to this poll which, it should be repeated, oversamples Republicans.

from KGW:

KGW political analyst Len Bergstein cautions reading too much into the Riley poll, which he says oversampled Republicans and took in data during the GOP convention.

Looking at the 50,000-person turnout for the Kerry campaign rally at Portland’s Waterfront Park as well as the latest Zogby poll results, Bergstein said “that the passion in Oregon is on the side of the Kerry-Edwards ticket on a broader basis.”

[utopian]

1. I can't wait to vote for Tom Potter

Francesconi blew it big time with his sleazy smear campaign, and I haven't fogiven him for blocking the resolution against the war.

[Clown_King]

2. Amendment 36

Bad news: Amendment 36 enjoys support, at least according to this poll which, it should be repeated, oversamples Republicans.

I remember a couple of months ago when the petition table for Amend 36 was setup in the lobby of the church I attend in Milwaukie. My wife elbowed me in the ribs after I kept rolling my eyes and shaking my head with disgust at how stupid I thought it was. In the last couple of weeks, the church has free bumper stickers that read "One Man One Woman - Yes on 36". As God as my witness, you won't see one of those on my car.

I like to consider myself a good Catholic, but crap like this just embarrassing. I guess the only saving grace, is at least its not being preached in the sermons.


I'm also a little skeptical of Bush's poll numbers in Oregon. I live in Milwaukie and drive to Portland for work, I see dozens of Kerry/Edwards signs... but not one for bush. If some Oregonians are for Bush, they are certainly being quiet about it.

[0rganism]

3. You can find a few bush signs and stickers in Portland

By and large, the republicans are very stealthy in their support of bush/Cheney, much as I gather Kerry supporters are in some parts of the deep south. There's no question that Kerry will win big in Multnomah county and probably do quite well in Washington and Clackamas counties.

Go a little bit east of the Portland area, and things even out pretty quick -- although I expect windsurfer-friendly Hood River is a lock for Kerry.

M36 will pass. It appeals to the "common sense" Christian values of the republicans and some Democrats. I only hope it doesn't bump up the reactionary turnout in rural Oregon too much. Unfortunately, it will probably take a constitutional ammendment at the federal level to reverse the damage many states are doing to G/L/T rights at this time.

[tmooses]

4. BS-Cheney signs

weren't "allowed" to be put out until after the GOP convention-or so I was told. Here in Corvallis I count about 8,9 maybe 10 to 1 Kerry to Bush signs. It's also a great time to be house-hunting-you get to know a bit about the neighborhood.