From a private letter to DUer but thought you guys might be interested

[featherman]

"I was a little tired and angry so probably should have used my usual 3-4 also. Heck 2-3 is ok with me. I haven't had the impression that most DUer's expect a landslide in Oregon. I have noticed posts where people are hand wringing about Bush taking Oregon. I disagree but realize it isn't a slam dunk for Kerry either. And many, many national articles have put Oregon in play for Bush. I know the margin numbers and I see the trend v. the national margins but I just don't see the region moving toward the GOP culturally in any meaningful way.

I think you will see a smaller GOP margin this year in Jefferson and Jackson counties, for example, as demographics change there. I also expect Tillamook to return to DEM without the Nader vote. Portland metro area, Eugene (Lane), Benton county, and the north coast counties will carry the state for the DEMS.

A big disappointment to me in 2000 was Coos county, a traditional DEM stronghold that voted +9 and +5 for Clinton and has basically voted DEM since 1960 except for the two Reagan elections. Coos went +14 for Bush in 2000! A turnaround of about 10,000 votes! Flip that single, small county back (return to 1996 pattern) and Gore wins the two-party by about 1.1 % instead of .5%. Sure could use some inside, local info about THAT dramatic 2000 flip. In fact that is really strange now that I think about it. Hmmmm. Wonder what kind of ballots were used there? Tin hat time?

[sandnsea]

1. Logging, environment

Very simple. They want jobs, they want to log, fish and expand their shipping. So they voted Republican. Also note the poll in here somewhere, 50% of thirty-somethings are going Republican in DeFazio's district. You don't find it in any other category. That group right behind me has always been weird. I've never thought they were right in the head since the slam dance! (Kidding there, mostly)

[featherman]

2. that's an awfully big shift and not really matched in other counties

which have the same concerns. There are gradual trends and then there are flips. This is a very big flip in four years considering the size of the county. I have to think something was going on here locally that wasn't in Curry, Douglas, Lincoln, etc. which likewise should be showing a 20% movement to the GOP.

[sandnsea]

3. Coos didn't shift economies

Lincoln did ALOT, Curry did a little. To tourism and retirement. Coos didn't. The economy is very depressed in Reedsport and Coos Bay. I think alot of people blamed environmentalism for the problems. Also, I know that Florence north went heavy on the internet very quickly. Try to sell a lodging web site in Reedsport. Most of them STILL don't have them. Other towns on the coast just flew right by them because of it.