I thought I'd post this here too. We might want to discuss the ongoing demographic development...

[JVS]

of our beloved Pennsylvania.

There is a lot of talk about PA and whether it will go Democratic in the GE or not. This is of course an area of interest to me, as a native Pennsylvanian.

The claim keeps being made that it is Western PA that decides if PA goes Democratic or Republican. I want to demonstrate that this is false. In actuality, Western PA (or more accuately the Ohio, Mon, and Allegheny river valley areas and surrounding towns) are the firmest base of Democratic support outside of the City of Philadelphia (the city proper, not the suburbs) The swing area of PA is not Western PA, it is the counties that form the Philadelphia suburban area. I brought these maps from Dave Leip's election atlas to demonstrate. http://uselectionatlas.org/

Here is PA in 1980 The state went to Reagan.

Notice that the Philadelphia proper has gone with the Democrats, but that the rest of the surrounding area has gone Republican.
In the West we have several counties (the counties through which those industrialized river valleys pass) going for the Democrats.

1984

plays out in much the same way with the stategoing to Reagan and once again the western part (Pittsburgh area) actually intensifying its opposition to Reagan. On a personal note, I'd like to add that this was the first election that I noticed as a small child and growing up in a neighborhood where Reaganomics were causing much distress (wives of men who had been Crane Operators making more than my engineer father were now becoming cleaning ladies) My friends and I were surprised with the results. Anyone who calls W PAers Reagan democrats is full of shit. We were getting fucked in the ass and we knew it.

Let's move to 1988

GHW Bush takes the state. Once again notice the couties around Philadelphia are for the GOP. SW PA, State College, Allentown, and Erie are Democratic.

1992 Clinton takes PA

Now look at the Philadelphia suburban corridor up to Allentown. It has voted with the city. The West is pretty similar to how it had been in the elections which Reagan won. Also the middle of the state has been weakened by Perot's influence.

1996 D win

2000 D Win

2004 D Win


When did Western PA ever not go for the Democrat? 1972, but even then you notice that nixon's support is paler in the West than in the East.


The West still forms a core of Democratic support. The region is getting less democratic however. I believe a lot of this is due to the fact that a lot of jobs have left and a lot of people have left with them The support of workers is not as meaningful in a deindustrialized western PA. It is not the Western part of the state that tilts PA republican. It is the sprawling suburbs of Philadelphia that have that power.

[MrMickeysMom]

1. I hate to state the obvious, but...

I live in Monroeville, the east most municipality of Allegheny county. I believe all the "white flight" and moving out or wanting to move out of Allegheny county to places such as Westmoreland county coincides with a lowest common denominator theory of ignorance.

They want to pay few taxes, but want the amenities. I think people, in addition to loosing a base of union support and industry have gotten dumber in the process. They tend to be more racist in my book, but I'm white, and maybe it's just through my eyes that I see so many dissconnected people who like to say they are republican, or, "independents" or "libratarians" because they are U N A W A R E and C L U E L E S S :-)

[JVS]

2. Howdy neighbor. I'm from nearby. The best way to write a history of the community I grew...

up in would be to trace the long trek up Frankstown Rd. from Larimer Avenue Eastward. Now my brother's friends are starting to buy houses in Plum. Their kids will be in Murraysville someday. But don't forget that our area also got a massive depopulation in the 1980's. I know from friends who left town that there are shitloads of former Pittsburghers who live in the Carolinas now. I have no clue why they are in Carolina in particular, maybe they once vacationed there.

[MrMickeysMom]

3. Hidy Ho, neighbor!

I guess a lot of people like the Carolinas due to vacation, based on what I've known. We arrive from living in the south 10 years ago, so people vacationed from Florida to the Carolinas, too. "cooler"... Anyway, NC has gotten somewhat more progressive.

I'm running for Council in the Municipality of Monroeville, Ward 3. Stay tuned... Gotta go night-night for now!
:hi:

[livetohike]

4. Monroeville is my home town - my Mom still lives there

in Ward 4. Good luck in the council race :hi:.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

5. But it was the northern Pittsburgh suburbs (PA-04) that voted out Hart

And put in Jason Altmire. I believe the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh are also swing votes trending Democratic.

However, I will grant you that this area is in no way loyal to the Democrats. It's more independent and Dem-leaning at this time.

[MrMickeysMom]

7. I noticed traveling Ward 3 in Monroeville, there are more "I's, L's and M's"

... then ever before, which is not helpful in deciding what people think in a primary. It was really tough walking out there today for signatures for the 18th Congressional Dem candidate I'm helping.

I think we'd know the story more if PA was an open primary state, but I suspect what you say about Jason Altmire's district is true for Tim Murphy's, as well.

[demodonkey]

6. Thanks for the great maps, but gee I wish the colors were reversed.

Guess we are all so used to being "blue".

;-)

[Phillycat]

8. I live in Delaware County, and I see plenty of W stickers...

But not as many as some of the more monied suburbs of Philly. I do think it's getting redder around here...

[Joe Bacon]

9. I'm part of the diaspora, too

I left Ambridge in 1982 and headed to Los Angeles to get steady employment. I still remember when my Mom called me in 1983-85 just crying because all of the steel mills shut down and the mill towns just collapsed. I remember how despondent she was on election night 1984 when many of her friends STILL insisted that they had to vote for Reagan because he opposed abortion. Mom was in tears that people whose jobs were aborted by ol' President Pruneface would STILL vote for him again!