Hasn't PA always gone to the Dems? At least since 1992?

[ailsagirl]

I was just looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com/, moused over PA, and saw that
since 1992, it has always gone Dem. So why are Dems worrying and why are repugs even
bothering in that state? :shrug:

West Coast Dem

[JPZenger]

1. Been Competitive Most Elections

1992 was a weird year because it was a 3 way race. Perot had a meltdown and still got a huge 19% of the PA.vote. Clinton received less than 50% of the total vote, and won by 5.5% in PA.

1996, Clinton won PA by 9 points, with Perot getting 10% in PA.

2000 was skewed by Nader, who received 2 percentage points in PA. Gore won by 4.2%.

2004 was close - Kerry won by only 2.5%, after much work. Kerry's poll numbers went down right after the attack on the Russian school. I think security moms caused him to lose.

The most important thing is turnout, turnout, turnout. I love it when Republicans publicize outlying polls showing the race is very close. I hate it when a Dem acts like PA is sewn up.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

2. To quote Carville: "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between."

It's the rural voters in the center of the state that make Repubs think they have a shot. For them, they want to turn out every redneck while suppressing the population centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

This year, the McCain camp is hoping to tap into racism, particularly in the more ethnic (eastern European, Italian, Irish) older voters in the collar counties of southwest PA.

Unfortunately we do not have early voting in PA. The key for the Dems is voter turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia next Tuesday.

I am cautiously optimistic for Obama but continue to phone bank leading up to election day.

[ailsagirl]

3. I'll keep my fingers crossed, PA Dems! Thanks for the responses

:hi:

[tigereye]

6. lots of GOTV activities around here near Pgh - I will be doing some tomorrow

if the number of volunteers urging folks to vote makes any difference, we should be ok.

[durablend]

4. Any ideas what the 3rd parties are polling at?

I'm assuming Barr and Nader are on the ballot here (anyone else?)...any ideas what kind of support they're pulling?

[tigereye]

7. I heard Nader 1 percent- but that might be the national figure

try fivethirtyeight.com - great site with every poll known to man on one site!

[Number9Dream]

5. The Dems are worrying because it's usually very close...

Don't forget, PA also elected Santorum and Specter and Tom Ridge. The state tends to vote in pockets of Dems and repukes.