F&M Poll - Specter leads Toomey 33-31; Sestak Trails Toomey 20-28

[PADEMJES12]

Today, Franklin & Marshall College released its polling for the Oct 20-25th period showing Senator Arlen Specter with a double digit lead, despite Rep. Joe Sestak's previous email gloating that he was only down 4 points in a Rasmussen Poll. Specter, Casey, and Obama had their favorability ratings drop. The F&M poll release shows "wishful thinking" on the part of Rep. Sestak. Recently, Sestak made the accusation that Senator Specter is a "general election loser."

http://blogs.mcall.com/capitol_ideas/2009/10/sestak-specter-is-a-general-election-loser.html

However, flying directly in the face of Rep. Sestak's faulty polling and "make believe wishes"... by way of the Franklin & Marshall poll released today is also a dose of bad news for the little known Democratic challenger in addition to his fundraising base drying up. F&M polling, in a general election match up found Rep. Sestak trailing Republican Pat Toomey 28-20 in a general election matchup. On the contrary, Senator Specter, as the Democratic nominee leads Pat Toomey 33-31.

Specter for his part (unlike Sestak), has been busy working hard for our 2009 Democratic judicial candidates. Just recently he sent an email endorsing the candidates, which by the way, I am sure we all agree is an excellent slate... http://www.pa2010.com/2009/10/specter-on-a-democratic-endorsing-spree

In all fairness, the pollsters also need to include Rep. Bill Kortz in the polling mix. This is something we've pointed out before, but they fail to do. Needless to all contentions of poll analysis... is one point that Rep. Sestak cannot shake, that being... having an unknown candidate on the top of our ticket during a gubernatorial election year appears to be a foolish proposition. Needless to say we'll likely find out more about this race after the Holiday season.

[JPZenger]

1. "Undecideds Abound in PA. Supreme Court, Governor, Senate Races"

Here's an excellent unbiased analysis of those poll results from the Pittsburgh paper, which is entitled "Undecideds Abound"

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_650216.html

Sestak is still unknown by many, but Specter's negatives are still high.

[PADEMJES12]

2. thanks JP...

for all of Sestaks effort and such... he seems to be a flat out loser in a general. Hes not gaining much
traction despite his effort and fake progressivism.

Why vote for an unheard of, who is trailing Pat Toomey by almost double digits? His words arent adding
up into any results. Perhaps that explains his large fundraising drop off. Of course, his stringing out his
announcement and such has likely added a "Sestak fatigue factor".

Nonetheless, either way... we'll learn alot more about this and the guvs race after the Holidays in Jan and Feb.

[Born Free]

3. Sestak

I will vote for Sestak in the primary and hope he wins...

[JPZenger]

4. From Today's Email from Sestak's Campaign

"Franklin & Marshall's poll that found only 23% of PA voters believe Arlen should be re-elected; and 66% think it's time for a change -- causing its pollster to state "Specter ... is in a world of trouble."

It's pollster has since said: "what should be alarming for Senator Specter is that of the people who say it's time for a change, we get about the same percentages of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who indicate that."

This means 66% of Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters -- not just Republicans and Independents - now believe it's time for someone, other than Arlen, to be their Senator."

[PADEMJES12]

5. Yeah and we'd be stuck with Joe Sestak... "robo-Joe"

as an option? I dont think so. Kortz is far better. Replacing someone with clout (Specter)... with someone as incoherent and
low on the shelf such as a fake progressive like Sestak would be the dumbest thing anyone could do. I'll never support
anyone that takes 4800 from Richard Scaife Mellon. Specter will crush him in a debate. Sestak is a
pawn of sorts on Toomeys chess board. Sestak also failed to mention in his email... he's a much worser option
polling 20-28 against Toomey. He cant win. Hes a general election loser and a waste of time. I suggest folks
donate their money to the 2010 general election fund on act blue as opposed to wasting it on a primary loser
like Joe Sestak. Make those dollars count for the Dems, when it counts in November 2010:

Donate today: http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/22469

[AlinPA]

6. Specter appears too frail physically to endure a tough primary and general election.

Further, I don't see any polls yet (I admit it's early) that show him as a big leader over Toomey or that large numbers think he should be re-elected. A good primary fight would help both Specter and Sestak because the public could see them both in action on discussing issues and show Toomey as a right-wing radical.

[AlinPA]

7. Also note Jason Altmire in ActBlue? He voted to kill the Health Care Bill.

[PADEMJES12]

8. Altmire has zero relevancy....

to this post. Both Specter and sestak are for a public option. U should start
a new post. I recommend that donors be smart and save their dollars for Pat Toomey
in November. Good to hear that Sestak donors will be willing to donate to Specter
after he wins the primary though. Again, i suggest donations not to be wasted
away in the primary, but used for the general candidate fund against toomey.

b/t will be good to see Specter whip up on roboJoe.

[PADEMJES12]

9. Here is the link for donating on Actblue today to defeat Toomey!

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/22469

[AlinPA]

10. Agree, it doesn't belong here. I slipped up there.

[SgtCedar]

11. Undecided

I have meet the three candidates for Senator. I have still not decided who I will support. I will decide early next year based on how Specter and Sestak vote on several major bills now in Congress. However, I have decided that I will circulate petitions for Sestak in February. I want to make sure there is a primary contest in the Democratic party.

I have also met Bill Kortz. He did not impress me. His only message seems to be, "I am the only life-long Democrat." While I am uneasy about Specter's party switches Sestak not registering as a Democrat until after he retired from the navy does not. There is a long tradition of military and naval officers staying out of politics while on active duty.

I have seen things to like and dislike about both Specter and Sestak. I want to see actual votes on health care reform and labor rights reform.

[JPZenger]

12. Be a little careful with voting records

I know someone will jump on me about this, but be a little careful about voting records.

A couple months ago, kos of www.dailykos.com did an analysis of Specter's voting record. The only consistency it showed was concern about his re-election. He regularly voted with the Bush Administration for many years, but was not a flaming conservative. Then, when Specter realized he would have a conservative primary challenger, he started voting more conservative. Only after the polls came out saying he had no chance of winning the GOP nomination, did Specter change to become a Democrat. But it wasn't until Specter realized he would have a primary challenge from the left that he began to vote more progressive.

He is a chameleon.

At the very least, a Sestak challenge will pressure Specter to continue to vote with the Dems for the next several months. After that, we don't know what to expect from him.

[PADEMJES12]

13. Sestak or Specter

Im supporting specter. I dont support carpetbaggers and im not supporting anyone who's anti-labor
(sestak) and talks out both sides of his mouth on Afghanistan. I think Afghanistan, and the
decision t send additional troops there, should be dictated by public policy. Congress members
arent generals, but generals shouldnt dictate public policy. In this economic environment, the
decision to send 40000 more soldiers without a plan and end game in place is downright foolish.

This will be a mere drop in the bucket with nothing but more debt to show for it. Good to see
Specter realize this.