Prediction: DeMint wins

[SCantiGOP]

DeMint will beat Tennenbaum in November for two reasons. One, he will have the active backing of the White House, and that may be more important in SC than almost any other state. Two, the only way currently for a Democrat to win a statewide race is to face a flawed Republican candidate. Beasely was that flawed candidate; thus, his loss in 1998 to Jim Hodges.
I think the race is close, and Inez could pull it out if she gets a huge "women vote" (women are a large majority of the swing voters in SC), and, of course, if Bush totally self-destructs by November and Kerry is on his way to a landslide. I of course hope this is the scenario that plays out, but I'd have to put my money on the radical republican.

[wyethwire]

1. I disagree

If the support of the Bush administration was decisive, we wouldn't have Senators Landrieu and Johnson still in the Senate.

The key to winning a red state is to hammer home a local issue where Bush is bad for local Republicans. In South Carolina, that issue is trade.

Inez has already won over half of the textile establishment before Demint won the runoff. The other half was backing Beasley.

The reason Beasley was a flawed candidate is because he antagonized a group of voters (video poker operators) who normally vote Republican but ALWAYS vote their pocketbook.

Demint has done the same thing with the textile industry.

[SCantiGOP]

2. I hope you're right

I'll be working for Inez this year, but if forced to bet my money right now, I'd pick it about 52-48 for DeMint. Inez is a good campaigner, but Iraq/Bush is going to be a huge factor in this race. I hear that Bush has promised DeMint that he will make a trip into SC to support him. Given the fact that this has to be one of the safest states in the nation for the GOP, that shows how much importance the White House and national party are placing on picking up this seat.