How did we do: 2000 vs 2004 numbers

[Mr Switters]

Here are links showing Election Commission results by county from 2000 vs 2004. The results are still "unofficial" for 2004, but the change will be very minor:

2000 Results:
http://www.state.tn.us/sos/election/results/2000-11/us-president.pdf

2004 Results:
http://www.state.tn.us/sos/election/results/2004-11/pres.pdf

Run through the numbers and it will show where we lost or gained ground. I don't really have the time to give it a full statistical analysis but here are some summaries:

Shelby County 2000
Gore: 190,404 : 56.5%
Bush: 141,756 : 42.1%

Shelby County 2004
Kerry: 215,810 : 57.5%
Bush: 157,591 : 42%

Davidson County 2000
Gore: 120,508 : 57.8%
Bush: 84,117 : 40.3%

Davidson County 2004
Kerry: 132,362: 54.8%
Bush: 107,618: 44.5%

Hamilton County 2000
Gore: 51,708 : 43.0%
Bush: 66,605 : 55.3%

Hamilton County 2004
Kerry: 57,268 : 41.8%
Bush: 78,513 : 57.4%

Knox County 2000
Gore: 60,969 : 40.5%
Bush: 86,851 : 57.7%

Knox County 2004
Kerry: 65,921 : 37.0%
Bush: 110,653 : 62.1%

I'm very surprised by the swing we found in the Eastern Part of the state. We had ACTIVE campaign offices in counties that haven't seen Democratic presence in DECADES! I'm not sure if our visibility here in East Tenn worked against us, in that Republicans were more motivated to vote because they saw so many Democrats out showing their support. I do know that it was a NASTY campaign in East Tenn, with all kinds of rudeness, bitterness, and in some cases violence. We were given a Halloween present at the Knox County Headquarters in the form of a big pile of burned Kerry signs at our front door!

It seems like Memphis held strong, motivating the vote and registering new voters. The only drawback was it appears as though the Republican efforts in the suburbs of Memphis countered any gain we made there, making it only a negligible increase overall.

I'm a little surprised by the switch in Davidson County, actually loosing noticeable ground. I blame Bredesen for this! He's the leader of our party and could have made a solid gift of Davidson County for Kerry. Not only is he a popular Gov, ruling from downtown Nashville, but he was a highly popular mayor too! Even though Davidson went a majority for Kerry, the percent of votes dropped, with the Republicans motivating over 23,000 new voters there while our efforts only brought out just under 12,000 more (they beat us almost by double new votes!).

Hamilton County held some ground, only loosing a few percentage points, and motivating just over 5,500 new voters. However Republican efforts in Chattanooga had to be solid as they brought nearly 12,000 new voters to the polls, doubling our efforts there.

Being a part of the Knox County team, I'm a bit shocked by the numbers I see here. I really thought we had a solid fight here, but again, maybe our highly active campaign actually worked against us. Showing our visibility, encouraging East Tenn democrats to show support for Kerry may have actually motivated more Republicans to the polls. I'm not sure if there is anything else I can chalk this up too, unless the churches were highly active in voter registration and motivation. We were down 3.5% this year, and they were up 4.4%. We only motivated 5,000 new voters to the polls, even though we had a stellar registration and GOTV drive (we had been registering voters since February). The Republicans, on the other hand, motivated over 23,000 new voters to the polls. They beat us 4x over!

I love this part of the state, but to see that many people show up to support Bush makes me sick to call them my neighbors. I'm glad I live in a highly democratic ward (one of few inside the city), or else I'm sure I'd puke having to listen to these people gloat.

I don't have time to analyze the rest of the counties but if you are interested you can hit the PDF links above, print them out and do your own comparisons. There are very few counties where the democrats picked up votes this time around.

[Claire Beth]

1. It is the religious right wing nuts.....

who have hijacked the republican party. They campaigned really hard in rural areas and most had their members voting for Bush because of the "gay marriage" issue. Not to mention the emails that were sent out that Kerry and the democrats want to take away their bibles. It's just insane - - INSANE! We have to somehow get into these rural counties and educate people but HOW do we do that?

[Mr Switters]

2. I agree, but these are the rural areas I was highlighting

It has all got to come from education. It is the only way that we can break the hold the religious right has on their electorate. Educating their children, so then their children's children will be better educated will be the only way to make a long lasting impression. How many people in current generations all across rural Tennessee are still the "first one in their family" to go to college? This is a fight that will take generations, and hopefully it will be sped along by good policy like Bredesen's effort to normalize teacher pay in Tenn so teachers in rural counties get paid on par with teachers in urban areas (and therefore hopefully attracting better and more qualified teachers).

It's the loss in our URBAN population centers (and the evened gains we saw in Memphis for the Republicans) that bothers me. These are urban counties, not even taking into account the surrounding rural counties for these urban centers like Tipton and Fayette around Shelby, or Williamson near Davidson, or the many rural counties surrounding Knox (Anderson, Sevier, Roane, Jefferson, ect).

[Claire Beth]

3. It is very scary.....

very scary indeed.

[peacebuzzard]

4. Mr. Switters, I live 1.5 mi. from the hdqrts location....

and I am sorry about the rude welcome to this part of the world. Classless fools live here. I have had yard signs repeatedly stolen from my yard. So have my neighbors. It is a beautiful area (pictorially) but in all honestly, friends are hard to find here. I am preparing for a break myself. A winter solstice in the tropics. I am not leaving this area tho. Been here 16 years and they will just have to deal w/ me. But I am appalled none the less. Hope to meet you sometime. thanks for your posts and numbers. This whole election stinks very badly.

[Claire Beth]

5. I feel the same....

I am completely appalled at the way the radical right wingers have hijacked the republican party among other things.. We need more people like you here in this area to help educate some of these idiots. Geez - - and I had such hopes for TN in this election.

[Zorbet55]

6. Although east Tennessee is by far the most scenic,

the populace seems alien to some of us from west and middle urban areas of the state. I commend your efforts in that area. Historically, it is deep rooted in Repuke politics.

Judging from comments we have seen of the main discussion forums yesterday and today, we are seeing alot of anger and finger-pointing which I suppose can be excused by another tough loss.

Some people are second guessing strategy and some want to redefine the soul of our party. That is, whether we should continue to support free choice, gay rights, and support for organized labor. In other words, many now are inclined to lean further right to capture more mainstream votes. As a member of a labor union, then I may have to become a Naderite myself and work for the repeal of Nafta, because I cannot abandon my own core issue.

It did appear odd to choose between Church/state Corporate Gov I and More Compassionate Corporate Gov II this election. We are still a nation deeply divided and the future looks bleak. Anytime your government is the largest exporter of military armaments and believes in war as a way of life, people like myself will always be unpatriotic. Even Ike's son, John, agreed that the great military industrial complex is running us into a cesspool of trouble.