Redistricting will not go well. But re-redistricting is on the table.

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

Tom Delay and his cronies set that precedent. Changing demographics will continue, and the angry teabag movement will rot away into history. Whenever it happens that Dems take control of the lege -- and it will happen -- they need to redraw the lines mid-decade.

[sonias]

1. It's a ground-hog decade

Rewind to 1990 decade and the whole thing is going to play out again. Only this time it gets worse. The Rs fully control the process and all we have is the courts who are siding less and less with the people against gerrymandering. Oh and corporations can now spend billions buying their politicians.

Plus the Rs get to pick up an extra 4 Congressional seats on the strength of Texas population growth and gerrymander those too.

We just got pitched back in the same ditch we were in about a decade ago in Texas.

Just when we thought we were gaining ground and getting close, everything gets wiped out by that Fucked News channel that drives fear way up.

2011 in the Texas Legislature is going to be down right depressing. I wish I had the remote to fast forward and get pass this train wreck.

[kjackson227]

2. Mornin', sonias! I don't understand how redistricting...

works. I understand why it's done, but how it's actually done is a mystery to me. Take Dallas, for instance- we have a Democratic representative (Eddie Bernice Johnson), so could the R's still come to our district and change the lines???

[sonias]

3. It's a complicated process

And in essence it has already started. Basically the state Legislature takes the first crack at drawing the maps. Since they have control of both houses, the maps and plan will favor the Rs keeping control. We Dems, have absolutely no way of stopping them. The only small power we have is the 2/3rds rule in the Senate, but the Rs threw that out last session, so they will probably do that the first time out of this session gate too. This time they will pass their plans through both houses and not punt like they did last time to the Legislative Redistricting Board. They control all the positions on that board too.

Other than that, all we have is the courts. And the courts are slow to respond and have been leaning more and more on supporting gerrymandered districts. Look how long it took to "fix" a few districts from the last re-redistricing. It was 2006 before SCOTUS ruled for MALDEF and LuLAC that the Latino vote had been diluted and we got a small fix to our districts.

Here is the state web site explaining the process:

www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/process_summary.html
Summary of the Redistricting Process

Note: This summary does not address judicial redistricting.

Every decade presents different challenges and reflects the wills of the various players involved during that period. The history of the redistricting process during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s illustrates some of the different courses decennial redistricting can take. The timing and legal requirements, however, dictate that the basic process will likely take the following course, which is described in more detail in the associated sections.

During 2010, the legislative committees with redistricting jurisdiction may hold public hearings around the state. The April 1, 2010, census population data will be delivered to the legislature no later than April 1, 2011, and perhaps as much as six weeks earlier. As soon as the data is loaded in the computer systems, the members of the legislature, their designees, and other interested parties will begin drawing plans. Bills to enact new redistricting plans will follow the same path through the legislature as other legislation.

If the Texas senate or house districts are not enacted during the 82nd Legislature, Regular Session, the Texas Constitution requires that the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB) meet and adopt its own plan. Any legislative or LRB plan must be submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice or the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia for preclearance under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

If the congressional or State Board of Education districts are not enacted during the regular session, the governor may call a special session to consider the matter. If the governor does not call a special session, then a state or federal district court likely will draw the plan.

A suit against an adopted redistricting plan may be brought at any time under the federal or state constitution or federal law. Note that plans drawn by a federal court do not need to obtain Section 5 preclearance, while plans drawn by a state court do require preclearance.

The filing deadline for the 2012 primary elections allows approximately seven months from the end of the regular legislative session for the governor to act on any redistricting legislation passed, for the LRB to meet if necessary, for any special session called to consider redistricting if necessary, for obtaining preclearance under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, for court action, and for counties to make necessary changes in county election precincts.

There just isn't much good news on that front. Eddie Bernice will probably keep her district because they try to pack the minority districts so that they can pick up other seats around the state. The lines for her district might change but they will draw a district that a minority candidate can win because they have to.

The only thing that saves some of our Congressmen/women is that the state has to abide by the Voting Rights Act and not dilute minority votes without DOJ pre-clearance. Obama's DOJ is going to be very, very busy trying to hold Texas together in some fashion.

If it were up to the Rs they would redistrict this state so that the only Ds that could win would be in S. Texas.

I wish I could be more positive, but honestly we have hit the bottom again. Our best hope is the election of 2012. We need the same kind of voter anger to turn the tide back.

:hug:

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

4. One ray of hope

I don't know what the new census figures show, but with the way the Texas population is changing, one of the new four districts may have to be minority. But I'm sure the repukes will pack 'em in as much as they can.

[sonias]

5. Do any of the new districts have to be minority districts?

I'm fully on board with what you're saying that they should be, because it was the minority population growth that drove it.

I have no idea what the requirements are for assigning new congressional seats to a state. If there is no explicit rule that any of those seats go to minority districts you can bet that the Texas Rs aren't going to give any of them up, out of fairness.

:shrug:

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

7. I don't know the rules either (if there are any)

But even without DOJ and legislative Dem pressures, the demographic gerrymandering may simply not work out. They may not be able to draw four new safe (lily white) districts in light of the minority population growth. But again, I haven't seen any figures or read any expert analysis on this. Pure speculation on my part.

[CoolOnion]

6. And there's a new Justice Department in town

The Republicans can't just railroad any old map into being now, like they did under Bush/DeLay.

[sonias]

8. That is true

We have the Obama DOJ that we didn't have when bushie let the Texas Rs go redistricting wild.

[boot@9]

10. absolutely correct

this is a disaster of major proportions. We in Texas will suffer the consequences for the next 10 years. the haves and the have-nots will become much more pronounced. Texas is in danger of becoming some third world country. There will be cuts in education, social services,and teacher retirement health care. Corporations influence will grow expotentially. You are correct...we are so screwed. (maybe some of the Texas bashing is deserved)

[sonias]

11. Yes and the bashing starts right here at home

Because we are the problem. Our own voters in Texas threw poop in the fan and now we're all going to get covered in it.

Hell yes I'm mad at stupid Texans. Those that voted for fear and those that didn't even bother to vote. All of us are going to pay, no matter what! Oh except for the mega millionaires who financed the republican party. They get to keep ripping Texan consumers off! :mad:

[w8liftinglady]

9. we already got f'ed in district 6..barton's cash cow