Democrats Have Shot at US Senate Seat, Poll Says

[sonias]

Texas Tribune 6/30/11

Democrats Have Shot at US Senate Seat, Poll Says

Democrats may have a shot at the seat being vacated by Republican U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning polling firm.

Republicans have the clear advantage. With little party crossover, the poll found them starting out with a 44-35 advantage. But independents favored Democrats in every match-up, indicating Democrats could eke it out if they find a strong enough candidate or draw a weak opponent.

Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who has not yet formally announced a campaign, is currently the strongest of all the candidates. On the Democratic side of the aisle, the strongest challenge would come from Tommy Lee Jones, the Oscar-winning actor. Jones has not expressed interest in the seat, but there is a movement afoot to draft him. Dewhurst currently leads Jones by four points, 43-39.

Dewhurst fares even better when paired with other possible Democratic contenders, like former general Ricardo Sanchez and former state Comptroller John Sharp. Meanwhile, Jones only trails former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, a Republican, by one point. He even beats Republican Ted Cruz, the state’s former solicitor general, by the same margin.

Oh I wish I could believe this. Pollsters for Texas races give me no real hope. I just don't believe them anymore.

:shrug:

The Draft Tommy Lee Jones website is interesting. www.tljforsenate.com

[sonias]

1. TX-Sen: Is there hope for Democrats in Texas?

Daily Kos 6/30/11
TX-Sen: Is there hope for Democrats in Texas?

This is PPP's first poll in Texas since January, and the Republican field has narrowed quite a bit. With redistricting complete, two dudes named Williams (Roger and Michael) have decided to drop down to run for the same House seat. Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz has inherited the teabagger mantle, and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst looks finally set to get in, which means he'll suck up a lot of the remaining oxygen in the GOP primary. Between the two of them and ex-Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, I wouldn't expect this field to get much bigger (though never underestimate a politician's vanity and naivety).

On the Democratic side, the only announced candidate is retired Gen. Ricardo Sanchez. Actor Tommy Lee Jones is, as Tom Jensen says, a pipe dream, though from what I understand, former Comptroller John Sharp is still considering the race. And his numbers are quite interesting, on account of the trendlines. Nothing really changed between now and January that I can see - Sharp's favorables barely budged, and the D-R-I sample composition isn't meaningfully different. Yet the gaps between Sharp and both Dewhurst and Leppert closed considerably.

(snip)
The question, of course, is whether a contest which looks close now, when everyone is in the high 30s and low 40s, can stay close when name rec improves. I'm not particularly optimistic right now, given how monstrously expensive Texas is, and how all our big statewide hopes have guttered out since... well... forever, basically. But this poll is nonetheless pretty interesting, and at the very least, TX-Sen may well be worth watching this cycle.

See this guy is on the same page as me.

:shrug:

[sonias]

2. A High Dropout Rate in U.S. Senate Race in Texas

Texas Tribune 7/1/11
A High Dropout Rate in U.S. Senate Race in Texas

Candidates are dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in Texas faster than teenagers drop out of Texas high schools. It’s been a month of un-declaration in the Republican race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Before you say it’s too early to think about this, remember that the primaries are in March — eight months from now — and that a serious candidate will have to pile up enough money for that contest by the end of the year. How much is enough? Probably a bare minimum of $5 million and preferably closer to $10 million. And donors can’t give more than $2,500 each. It’s an obstacle.

Hutchison announced early this year that she won’t seek re-election in 2012, prompting a stampede of Republican candidates. Two of those contenders jumped out this month, both opting to run for Congress in a newly drawn district in North Texas. What are they running from? Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the early favorite in polls and the certain leader in early money, is set to declare his candidacy in a couple of weeks. State Senator Dan Patrick, Republican of Houston, is looking. Ted Cruz, the former Texas solicitor general is gathering conservative endorsements and support. Elizabeth Ames Jones, a railroad commissioner, is in. And Tom Leppert, a former mayor of Dallas is, with significant self-help, leading the pack in fundraising.

Michael Williams, the former Texas Railroad Commissioner, took flight first, getting into the race for a new congressional seat and saying, frankly, that Dewhurst’s “shadow” over the race makes it a tough proposition for anyone else. Dewhurst is a brand name who has the personal wealth to finance the race, and “he’s the lieutenant governor and will still be lieutenant governor if he loses,” Williams points out. All of that gives pause to donors and other supporters, no matter who they’d like to elect next year.

:kick:

[w8liftinglady]

3. Do we know which Democrats might throw theiir hat in the ring?

Oh, that Tommy Lee Jones would run....that would blow up the little tea party brains...

[sonias]

4. Right now the only announced candidate is Ricardo Sanchez

No one else is making any noise that I know of.

:shrug: