I See A Lot Of Promise In Virginia

[BamaLefty]

Looking at the 2004 election results, I think we can take VA in '08 with either Clark or Warner.

Hillary can't win VA... but I know that Warner would and believe that General Clark would as well.

Thoughts?

[OldLeftieLawyer]

1. Don't bet on it

I don't believe Warner could carry Virginia in any kind of race beyond governor. I'm not certain he could get elected Senator, although I'd certainly back him.

Never underestimate the conservatism of Mr. Jefferson's Commonwealth. Look at our Senators, and think again.

[BamaLefty]

2. Well...

Election 2008

Virginia Presidential

George Allen (R) 41%
Mark Warner (D) 46%
Other 4%

Governor Warner is viewed favorably by 62% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 31%.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20President%202008.htm

[OldLeftieLawyer]

5. Please

That's fantasy.

Besides, why not pay attention to the problems we have right now. The 2008 election? Come on.

Use your energy for real and constructive things.

Rasmussen also predicted John Kerry would win, remember?

I live in Virginia.

[BamaLefty]

7. Well frick..

I had high hopes for ol Virginny.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

9. Oh, so do I

Every two years, without fail, I'm certain things will go differently.

Every two years, I am reminded that I am this close to drooling from overlooking the obvious.

[Township75]

4. I think he could...

I am not sure if he could beat Allen, but he could beat our Sen. Warner.

Gov. Warner did fairly well in the rural areas in the gov race, which is not something many Dems can do. I think the state would go to him by at least 4 pts in the election, provided he wasn't running against Allen.

On another note, if the state didn't go for Kerry, I don't see why it would go to Clark.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

6. John Warner?

Didn't he announce he's not running again? I seem to recall it.

But, if he didn't, bet everything you've got on John Warner beating anyone who would dare challenge him.

[Township75]

8. I don't think JW is running again, but

if he were, I would pick MW to beat JW.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

11. Consider this

How many naval bases has Mark Warner brought to Virginia?

How much seniority would Mark Warner have?

Do you know how powerful John Warner is?

Not a chance.

[spooky3]

33. I think M. Warner would have a better chance against Allen. John W.

is an institution here, sad to say.

[autorank]

27. Look at our governor in '89!

Look at my polling place. 30% voted by 9:30am (20% had voted absentee), thats 50% in by 9:30-9:45 at the latest. Then a final vote percent of 63% by the end of the day. That's long lines from 9:45am to the end of polling (with maybe a 2 hour semi-slow down) and only 13% more.

We were had. That's what I call voter "depression." You should have seen the poll workers just pick up a machine and move it to a table, just sat there.

We were had! I'll bet Kerry eeked out a slim vicory and I'll really bet that our party is totally clueless.

Nobody believes this can happen. It did!

[etherealtruth]

3. I'll be interested ...

... to read comments from current Virginians ... I haven't lived there since the 90's but I recall a generally conservative state. I was often convinced I was the only Democrat for miles.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

10. Here in Northern Virginia,

there's a whole different - and small, relatively speaking - population. Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax - those places are inhabited by people who belong to an entirely demographic.

Then there's Charlottesville, which is pretty blue, too. Some of it, anyway.

The rest of the Commonwealth - and people who've never lived here tend to overlook what a great big land mass Virginia is - is closely-knit and not terribly sophisticated, with simple agendae and simple views of the world. They are unrelentingly Republican voters.

That's why Doug Wilder was such a trip. Remember him?

[ernstbass]

12. I have to agree with you

Down here in Southwest Va (and I suspect central VA) people are still very repug and conservative. You're getting into the Bible belt down here which doesn't help. I fear that Va will stay red unless NOVA's population explodes rapidly. Virginians seem more likely to vote Dem in local (and sometimes) state elections than they do national elections.

[MountainLaurel]

28. One problem

NOVA's population is exploding, but many of those moving in are immigrants who won't be eligible to vote for some time, if ever. (There was an article in the Sunday Post about the role of Hispanic immigrants in changing the political situation). And then there's the influx of Repuke politios riding on the Shrub's coattails.

[etherealtruth]

13. Moved to VA during Wilder's administration

Lived in Alexandria while our house was built in Fredericksburg, oh yes Fredericksburg (actually Spotsylvania County). My "then-spouse" worked in D.C. and I raised our 3 children in a "sleepy bedroom community". The area was physically lovely, culturally "southern" and politically REACTIONARY.

There were not Democratic candidates for local office --- only republicans and independents.

The group of people we socialized with were from northern VA, MD and the District; all were extremely conservative ---- so, that is the impression from that area that I carry with me.

I am always surprised when I run into liberal Virginians ...

[OldLeftieLawyer]

15. Oh, we're here, and in greater numbers than ......

...... you might suspect.

Yes, I remember when Fredericksburg was a trek, a nice day trip to browse through the antique shops, have lunch - was it Caroline Street? Now, it's just another suburb, which scares me.

My town is "The People's Republic of Alexandria," and, coolest of cool, City Hall and its plaza - with the fountain, where the Farmers' Market takes place every Saturday morning - just became a Wi-Fi hot spot. It's such a great place, Alexandria.

[etherealtruth]

19. Sorry, we were part of the problem (sprawl) ....

... "We" were all young professionals, wanting large houses on even larger lots with good schools to send our children to ... none of us considered the havoc we would wreak on the environment or how many historical areas/sites we were disrupting ... So many of us were transplants from other areas of the country. I completely understand your sadness related to the distant sprawl.

Unrelated: your personal property tax completely unsettled me.

[magnolia]

14. Remember him????

Doug Wilder is now the Mayor of Richmond.

I'm much more optimist about Virginia. Slowly...people are coming around.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

16. He's interesting

Remember when he was elected governor? It was absolute historical: a black governor, a white lieutenant governor, and a female attorney general.

Seems like a long time ago.

Say hello to the John Marshall Hotel for me - that's where I took the Virginia Bar Exam.

:hi:

[BamaLefty]

17. Yikes,

the bar exam. My parents are lawyers and they talk all the time about how much time they spent studying for the bar. I'm already nervous. :scared:

[OldLeftieLawyer]

18. Take a good Bar Review Course

and you'll be fine.

I didn't learn any law until I took the Bar Review course. Astonishing how well those outlines made it into my head.

Don't sweat it. You'll do fine.

[BamaLefty]

20. Thanks.

I'll look into that. And the good thing is that I'm only 17. I've still got a while to go before "the day."

[abluelady]

21. I'm Optimistic Too

I believe if Kerry hadn't pulled his workers out of Virginia in September he would have had a chance to carry the State. I'm in Richmond and constantly amazed at how many Dems there are here.

Maybe Dean will focus on VA more in the future. We are more purple than red. There are a large number of transplants here who are more active than the average born-in Virginian.

[ernstbass]

22. I sure hope y'all are correct

It's hard to be optimistic in this part of the state

[magnolia]

24. Purple.....I think so too.

I was talking to someone at Tim Kaine Headquarters this week who had been canvasing the west end republican neighborhoods. She said that on any given street their would be 4 or 5 people who said to her, "I'm the only democrat in the neighborhood!" There seems to be a lot of them...they just haven't come out of the closet yet! LOL!

[magnolia]

23. Will do!

I'll wave at the John Marshall the next time I drive by...just for you! It's a beautiful hotel.

[swimboy]

25. Left in Richmond

Oddly, the City of Richmond is solidly Democratic, but it's a complicated, multi-layered, conflicted thing.

[spooky3]

34. not quite true--Richmond went blue and parts of Tidewater did too

in the last election, and I suspect that (a) without black box voting problems and (b) had the Dem. party not written off VA to concentrate in other areas, that the numbers would have been much, much closer. I can't say that Kerry would have won it, but I won't be convinced given the exit polls and other factors named above, that it is as red as some people believe.

[Virginian]

36. My precinct has BBV and still Kerry won 58% to 40% for Dubya.

I'm in Northern Virginia.

[VaYallaDawg]

26. No question, most of the state is solid GOP

but it can be quirky at times too. I live in Richmond - nearly all local/city offices go to the democrats, suburbs are stinky-solid republican. A work colleague who is repub to the bone has declared he's voting for Tim Kaine (that's the governor's race for you expats who don't live here any more) - not only that he's doing volunteer work for the Kaine campaign. So go figure.

[liberalfriend]

29. Off topic (sort off)

I'm new to the DU and this forum but I have a few questions that I was hoping my fellow Virginians could answer. First, what is going on in the 67th district with Chris Craddock? What do you all feel his chances are for winning delegate? I have a friend who is a moderate republican (she has logical tendencies such as pro-choice and pro-gay marriage) and anti-Craddock, so what are some points about Craddock that I could make to her, that aren't too left (I don't want to scare her away! Every vote counts!) and would help her see the light of day that this guy is not good for VA? And lastly who are some good potential candidates that can challenge him in two years? Thanks for any help you guys can offer me.

[swimboy]

30. Welcome to DU, liberalfriend!

I'm not familiar with the race you're talking about but I hope someone who is can help you.

[liberalfriend]

31. hi swimboy

Dude the guy is nuts! He actually got up in front of people at a polling station and declared that jesus brought the voters to him! The 67th is in chantilly so if you know anyone who is from there and has info on the guy it would be much appriciated.

[swimboy]

32. Chris Craddock

I googled his name and got to his website. Sounds pretty much like a hard-line idealogue who really wouldn't give a moment's thought to the concept of the separation of church and state. I hope he doesn't get to the General Assembly. I'm in Richmond where I grateful that we're sending Jennifer McClellan to represent us.

[livinginphotographs]

35. My thoughts:

Mark Warner would be a terrible pres candidate in 08. I think he has a much better chance of beating Allen for Senate in 06, and that's what I prefer he do anyway.

Virginia is a weird state - they frequently will elect a governor from one party, and a Lt Governor from another party. It would be like have a Bush/Edwards administration. That makes me think that the voters here are a bit more independent than just voting straight Republican or Democrat.

The Republicans had a good run in the 90s, but I think it was just luck and some really cynical campaigning. Allen showed up with his cowboy boots and fake accent and the voters swooned :eyes: and then Gilmore came in with his horribly misguided "no car tax" plan, and got voted in on that. But since this, predictably, made a complete mess of the budget, Mark Warner was able to come in and pretty much unite even Republicans behind him to fix the budget. He's got a lot of support because of that, and even my Bush-voting mother likes him.

If Allen runs for president, he's toast. He's got way too much baggage, and I think most Virginians just tolerate him as opposed to supporting him. Eric Cantor (my rep) is the one to watch (or worry about). He's one of those goose-stepping Republicans that don't believe in shit except for getting elected. I can't even respect him as a honest homophobe, because he just says and does whatever it takes to get the looney right riled up. He ran pretty much unopposed last time around, and the Dems need to make it a priority to get him out. That's just my opinion.

If Kerry had not tolerated the Swift Boat Vet attacks like he did, I think he would've done very well in Virginia, even if he didn't actually carry the state. The military presence combined with the small pockets of Democrats throughout the state would've stood firmly behind him, and maybe drawn in some moderates (they do exist here).

I'm going to withold judgment until the governor's race is over. If Kilgore wins, I'm going to be a lot less optimistic. If Kaine wins (and I think he's got a very good shot), I'll be a lot more hopeful for 08, even if Allen gets re-elected.

One thing I agree with you on: Hillary would be the best thing to happen to the Virginia GOP. Even most Dems I know here don't like her, and the right can just rile up the Clinton-haters that got Republicans in the governor's mansion back in the 90s.

/rambling off

[autorank]

37. Good thoughts

"If Kerry had not tolerated the Swift Boat Vet attacks like he did, I think he would've done very well in Virginia, even if he didn't actually carry the state."

You are so right. I think they stole a bunch of votes here in 2004 (I poll watched and comment on that above). Gore only lost by 4% in 2000 and didn't even show up. Kerry did. But the Swift Boat thing required a slam dunk, ass kicking response (he should have gone South Carolina on them). We got a bunch of political consultant crap.

Anyway, please God, make Warner run and spank Allen, pleas, I'll go to church every Sunday and say my prayers ( ;)this is not intended to offend secular humanists, those who do not believe in God, or those who go to church on another weekday;) ).

We need Wes Clark i 2008 or a Gore-Clark ticket. The country is ready for politicians that fight. That leaves someone from the South or a real "butt kicker" like Gov. Schweitzer, D, MT (oh, he's a handful when he gets going).

Warner for Senate, '06, Kaine for Governor '05

[ernstbass]

38. This secular humanist will go to church everyday

if Warner kicks Allen's ass. I think that the swift boat ads and the label of flipflopper ruined Kerry in VA last yr.

[autorank]

39. I actually think it was a lot closer than the report or that Kerry won.

I poll watched in No. VA early AM through 10:00am. By 9:30, the folks at the precinct told us that 20% had voted absentee and 30% of the district had voted that morning by 10:00am. That's 50% right, right. So I get relieved and then I'm crushed by the evenings events. The next day I forced myself to look at the VA state vote in detail. I was surprised at the spread since Gore, who never came, did better than Kerry who was here. THEN I look at my precinct, a whopping 65-66% of the precinct voted. I was shocked. The lines from 10 until 7 were constant, very long, with the exception of a mild slow down from 3-4pm. So constant lines from 7-10 produce 30% of the vote (with 20% absentee) and the same lines for the balance of the day except for 1-1.5 hours produce an additional 15-16%. That's what I cal failing the "reasonableness test" or, in my terminology, total bullshit. I have a good mind to go down and review the books to see the actual percent who voted and compare it to the report. I'll report back.

[Tracyjo]

40. Warner would probably win

just because of the name recognition here in Va. Home boy makes good and all that crap, but Clark could never beat Edwards in Va. Wes is a good guy, and I like him, but John Edwards would take the state.