Why is Tim Kaine having such a hard time in the GOV race?

[AX10]

I thought that Warner was very popular and this would help put Kaine into Richmond? Why would VA want Kilgore who will undo Warner's good work?

[bluestateguy]

1. He's not using Warner's coattails

Not enough anyway. If he doesn't, people will just vote their party--which in Virginia is Republican. Kaine is within striking distance, but he needs to play up the Warner connection more.

[onenote]

6. he'd be hard pressed to play it up more imo

Every ad I've seen, every speech I've heard mentions Warner.

onenote

[rogue emissary]

2. It's weird but Kilgore is painting himself as a successor . . .

of Warner style governance. At the same time he blames Kaine for problems like the bad traffic situations across the state. So a lot of people are under the illusion he won't be * type Republican. Kaine will need to hang * lax style.

The problem could also be Warner. He doesn't seem to care if he politically hurts VA Democrats. I'm sure he'll campaign with Kaine as Clark and Edwards are doing. Warner has his eye on the White House. If Kaine doesn't win, I feel Warner will bear a little of the blame.

[ernstbass]

3. Kilgore has some negative ads

in Southwest VA which will probably play very well to conservative christians (gun opposition, gay adoption,etc) - I think the ads are definately harming Kaine in this part of the state. I'd like to see Warner in an ad for Kaine.

[underpants]

12. Too liberal on gas taxes. Too liberal to be governor.

the weird part of that ad is that the word "liberal" is never used before that. I know and the focus audience knows what they mean by "liberal" but it is odd that the word just takes over the ad in the last 5 seconds.

[BlackVelvet04]

4. Warner has an ad

on supporting Kaine. I saw it this morning on WSLS channel 10 out of Roanoke.

[ernstbass]

8. I haven't seen it yet

That will definately help Kaine. this is going to be a squeaker. Kilgore's attack ads certainly play to the fears of all of the rednecks (tax hikes, gay adoption, anti -guns)

[abluelady]

5. Why Did VA vote for Bush???

[onenote]

7. virginia hasn't gone Democratic in a Pres election since LBJ

Even though it occasionally elects Democratic governors (such as Warner) or Democratic Senators (such as Chuck Robb).

onenote

[abluelady]

9. Then Perhaps the Question should be

Why isn't Kilgore doing better? I know we're a red state here. The dems who get in are the exception not the rule--we have to remember that.

[onenote]

10. lack of interest -- which makes voter turnout crucial

Because Virginia holds its elections for governor in "off-years" there is less interest and considerably smaller turn out than in national election years.
For example:
1997: around 1.2 million votes cast in Gilmore (R) v. Beyer (D) race
2000: 2.7 million votes cast in Presidential election
2001: around 1.8 million votes cast in Warner (D) v. Early (R) race
2004: 3.2 million votes cast in Presidential election

Its all about turnout....

For example, in Arlington County,VA Beyer and Warner picked up between 30 and 35 thousand votes in 1997/2001. Gore and Kerry picked up 50 and 60 thousand in the county. In Fairfax, it was 114 thousand and 146 thousand for Beyer and Warner, but 196 thousand and 211 thousand for Gore and Kerry.

The key is to persuade Democrats who vote in Presidential elections to get out and vote in the governor's race. If we do a better job than the repubs, we win. Its that simple.

onenote

[underpants]

11. That is the question-Kilgore is running like a W clone

see onenote's post below. It is about the turnout.