If Kaine Doesn't Get These... He Loses

[BamaLefty]

Just my thoughts. Feel free to point it out if you disagree with me/I make an error.

*Must win every county won by John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential Election

*Must win Fairfax County by 12% or more

*Must win Abermarle County by 5-7% (Strong Charlottesville/UVA turnout)

*Must win Roanoke city by 5% or more

*Must turn one of the "red", south central, rural counties blue. These counties are: Henry, Halifax, Mecklenberg, and Prince Edward.

* And then, the obvious: Strong African-American turnout, motivated Democrats, growing anti-Republican/Bush sentiment, people voting with their head screwed on properly!

Good luck Virginia. Hopefully all of us Dems will be celebrating a Kaine victory on November 8th!

(Dems colored red)

A Kaine victory would most likely look like this on a county map: http://uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/img.php?year=2001&st=VA&type=map

A Kaine loss: http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/img.php?year=2004&st=VA&type=map

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

1. Thanks. I'm in Richmond. Good point about counting every

vote. Speaking of voting, we just got the electronic voting machines. This worries me...no paper trail.

[BamaLefty]

2. Uh oh

not Diebold are they?

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

4. No, but worrisome nonetheless.

[nickshepDEM]

3. Hopefully the Obama vist helped to rally the Af-American community.

[BamaLefty]

5. I Would Think That That Would Rally Everyone

I can't think of any Independents that wouldn't react well to Obama. He is a very likeable man.

[nickshepDEM]

6. Indeed.

[Squatch]

7. It would be nice to get the Hampton Roads area, too.

[spooky3]

24. yes, on the map that's shown as necessary but

I think the OP's assumption is that Kaine has a slight edge there already, so they are counting it in his "win" column and focusing attention on the areas where there is less certainty (or a need for a greater margin).

[abluelady]

8. Did I hear Doug Wilder Endorsed Kaine?

That should help.

For those in Richmond, Kaine will be at Bernies' Sub Shop on Ridge Road at 11:30 today.

[underpants]

9. Yes Wilder did endorse Kaine

Doug could have used this a chance to really play king maker but he went with the "yes he is coherent" pick.

[VaYallaDawg]

10. He also chose to take a swipe at the state's tax surplus,

blaming it on "tax increase by Warner and Kaine." If memory serves me correct the tax increase was proposed by the Gen. Assy. which is controlled lock stock and barrel by the GOP. But Doug always has to speak with a little barb. I think he's one of the most dangerous politicians to Dems in this state. Remember how he turned his back on Mary Sue Terry and virtually assured the election of George Allen.

[VADem11]

11. Not quite

I agree with your other points but it's impossible for any democrat to win fairfax by 12 points. Fairfax is only slightly democratic leaning and having a 12 point victory there would be miraculous. Kaine can win by winning Fairfax by 5% or more.

[BamaLefty]

12. Not so fast

Fairfax Co is getting more and more Democratic by the day. And is one of only 5 counties in America that was won by both Bob Dole and John Kerry. That just goes to show you how much progress Democrats have made in northern Virginia. A year and a day later from the last election... Fairfax could even be more Democratic. So yeah, I would say that a double digit win here is mandatory. Just look at how much bluer that place is that it was 8 years ago... in a nation that has edged right.


Fairfax County:

2004

Kerry 53.2% 245,671

Bush 45.9% 211,980

Other 0.8% 3,728

------------------------------
2000

Gore 47.5% 196,501

Bush 48.9% 202,181

Nader 2.9% 12,201

Other 0.7% 2,892

-------------------------------

1996

Clinton 46.6% 170,150

Dole 48.2% 176,033

Perot 4.4% 16,134

Other 0.8% 2,946
----------------------------------

http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

[VADem11]

13. Well

I live in Fairfax County and just because it has been getting more democratic doesn't mean that Kaine will have a double digit victory here. Parts of the county are still pretty conservative and Kaine doesn't need a double digit victory to win anyway.

[BamaLefty]

14. But lets get it anyway

I'd love to "run up the score." ;)

[autorank]

15. Damn, if you keep this up, I'm going to recommend you run for Gov. here!

Good analysis, especially of Fairfax County.

The real sleeper here is the under 40 crowd. If it were just them, you would have a tough time telling the difference between Fairfax County, VA and Marin County, CA...well, the difference is we work harder here.

The Kerry total was skewed by truly lousy voting machines (even the Republicans in Fairfax hate electronic voting).

Watch for a Big Big last minute blitz by Warner, who will be on the tube in NOVA wall to wall.

If Warner gets 3 of 4 or all 4 of the top races (Gov is a must), he's propelled out front in the non-Hillary crowd (I don't even think of her until some cable guy says her name).

Warner is in fighting form. He's earned politics like he learned business and he's just as good as he was when he raked in the bucks due to exceptional intelligence.

Kaine will win (better win my precinct or I get blamed :freak: ).

What's Warners task? To turn left on international issues and demand that we do what the Iraqi's want, leave.

He supported Iraq but can "get out of jail free" because he was a Governor. kerry and the rest in DC should have known. Warner was busy managing the best run state, by award, in the nation.

He'd just have to do it a couple of times, enough to get away from the stench and then walk away from the DLC.

Failing to do that, we'll still love him here but he won't fly nationally, not with a pissed off public.

Wonder if he has the audacity to pull this off.

[Virginian]

16. Fairfax - Rt 66.

I thought I heard Kaine say that plans to widen outbound Rt 66 were already drawn up. If that is so, then why not answer Kilgore's claim that HE will widen Rt 66 with the facts?

Commuting is a problem and I am afraid some of the uninformed may go for the right wing radical just to get to work faster.

Rt 66 was built with only two lanes in each direction through Arlington because if it had more than two, Arlington would never have approved any highway construction at all. That was nearly 25 years ago. I guess there must be some kind of limit on how long the road had to remain 2 lanes wide. Currently the road is limited to HOV 2 during rush hours. It makes for a very nice, fast commute for two or more people.

Ads here say that Kaine said he was against abortion in rural counties and pro choice in NOVA. I don't know how much clearer Kaine can state that he does not like abortion, or the death penalty, but will enforce the existing laws on them.

The Day Labor site in Herndon has gotten attention in ads by Kilgore and some of the other right wing radicals. I think Kaine needs to express in an ad what he said in the debate about this topic. The local jurisdiction has handled this the best way they know how. The Governor doesn't get in there and tamper with local ordinances and town council decisions. Illegal immigration is a national problem and should be addressed nationally so that town councils do not have to make these tough decisions. Jerry Kilgore keeps saying he trusts the people. Meddling in town politics does not sound like it.

[Frances]

17. Good post

I have a friend in Fairfax County who is pessimistic. She says there are lots of Kilgore ads in her single family, working class neighborhood. She is a going to vote for Kaine, but she is concerned about the number of immigrants. I think the Democrats need to get a focused message on that issue. In my opinion, Bush's support of work visas could work against the Republican party. Democrats need to say, as you do, that immigration is a national issue.

[Virginian]

18. Democrats need to say that immigration is a national issue.

Kaine has already said it in his debate. He has spelled out what he plans to do. He needs to put an ad out that explains his position. He needs to ask just what Kilgore would do, overturn a city council decision? By whose authority? Oh, that's right, by the authority of God.

I'm a Christian, but this God thing has got to go. God is a personal relationship, not a government sound bite. To me, these Republicans are blasphemous in taking the Lord's name in vain.

[spooky3]

23. N. Arlington residents do not want 66 widened.

Some obviously do, but most do not. Why should Arlington neighborhoods be further damaged by highways (and exhaust fumes) for people who drive through to commute so they can live in bigger houses? I don't think there was a negotiated end to the limit to the 2 lanes in each direction, for precisely this reason. And where would the widening stop? The easier it is to commute, the more building will go on, leading to more pressure for more lanes, then another road through Arlington, etc., etc., etc.

It would be far better to insist that funds be found to build Metro out to accommodate commuters immediately. We need to stop thinking like smaller midwestern cities that still have plenty of space close in and are not growing. We need to start modeling our transportation after bigger European cities.

[BamaLefty]

20. LOL

They let 17 year olds run for Governor in VA? If so, find me a house and sign me up. ;)

[autorank]

21. Better yet, I'll get you a Jet Stream...keep the age on the down low:;)

Anyway, I think the eminent founders of the Commonwealth were referring to 'mental age', no problemthere!

[BamaLefty]

22. Compared To The Three Stooges (Allen, J. Warner, and Kilgore),

I'd have to say that's true! ;)

[magnolia]

19. But...what about this.....

In the past seven Virginia gubernatorial elections -- going back to 1977 -- the winner has been of the OPPOSITE party of the president. Prediction: Kaine

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4989702

[Eurobabe]

25. He'll get Albemarle

We almost mopped the floor with Bu$h in our precinct (very repube) during 2004.