Sabato's Crystal Ball - Virginia Senate Race

[Catchawave]

He's a rw hack, isn't he? I believe this may have been written well before Webb officially entered the race.

Sabato also gives the rundowns on the House races too at:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/senate/?state=VA

Virginia
Outlook: Likely Republican


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Latest Update:

Suddenly, this one has turned interesting. It is not so much that Republican Senator George Allen is not still favored for reelection. Rather, he has two ardent, energetic Democratic foes who will face off against each other in a June 13 Democratic primary: wealth business man Harris Miller and former Reagan Navy Secretary Jim Webb. Miller seems to be the choice of a good portion of the Democratic Party establishment, while Webb is viewed as a high-risk/high-reward opponent for Allen. It is far from clear which one will actually win the nomination.

What is clear is that Allen is continuing to campaign across the country for the presidency in 2008, and to run simultaneously for reelection in Virginia. This is beginning to attract substantial criticism, as it is becoming obvious that Allen hopes he will not serve out his second Senate term. Virginia has been moving away from the Republicans for several years, for a combination of demographic and political reasons, and the state is no longer as conservative as Allen. It will be fascinating to watch whether Webb or Miller can begin to "draw some blood" and force Allen to stay in the Old Dominion and spend his money on the reelection race instead of the presidential contest. Allen is engaged in a high-wire act with two separate wires, and anyone--even an accomplished athlete--can tumble to the ground in these circumstances.

Background

If former Democratic Governor Mark Warner had challenged one-term Republican Senator George Allen, Allen would have a very tough road to reelection. However, Warner has now announced he will not run, so Allen and Warner can both devote their time and money to the 2008 race for President.

Yet it will be interesting to see if the Democrats can come up with a credible nominee against Allen--one that will keep him tied down to Virginia and spending at least a few million dollars of his war chest. A prominent name has now emerged in Harris Miller, a wealthy businessman in the technology field, who is head of the ITAA. Miller is a good friend of former Gov. Warner and was the former Democratic chairman for the gargantuan Fairfax County in Northern Virginia. Miller starts out the race as a heavy underdog, but he has some strengths. He is articulate, knows the issues, will be well-funded, and apparently will be the nominee of a resurgent party in The Old Dominion. In this case, it may not be a matter of winning, but rather how well a challenger can do.

The Republican electorate for 2008 will be watching this race closely to see how Allen road-tests his presidential seams.

[Midlodemocrat]

1. If you read the link I posted from Time, Sabato is giving

Webb and Allen each 40% of the vote.

[TheVirginian]

2. Sabato is very anti-Allen.

Sabato has been critical of Allen since Allen was governor, and he has continued it when discussing both Allen's '06 and '08 candidacies.

[Eurobabe]

3. Larry Sabato is a major blowhard

I'm sorry to say he's associated with my alma mater.

[AX10]

4. I'll read it.