Could we lose the 2nd district?

[pscot]

Larsen has his shortcomings, but his opponent, John Koster is a cement head who believes all our problems can be solved with tax cuts for the rich and austerity for the rest of us. Jack Metcalf, the last Republican to hold this seat, was a pretty decent human being. Koster on the other hand, is a teabag-certified, modern Republican with all that that implies. Kos brings us the bad news:

WA-02: SUSA poll shows incumbent Dem trailing by four
The reasonably close numbers in the Washington 2nd district during the open primary last month has raised GOP hopes of an upset. This new poll from SurveyUSA should bolster those hopes. SUSA has Republican contender John Koster up four on incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen (50-46). The combined Dem total outstripped the GOP total by 53-47 in the late August primary, though Koster narrowly outpolled Larsen individually.

http://www.dailykos.com/

[Upton]

1. In danger of losing the 3rd district too..

this is Brian Baird's seat..

Meanwhile, a new KING 5 poll in the third Congressional district, finds Republican Jaime Herrera with 54% compared to Democrat Denny Heck with 41%.

http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/New-election-results-KING-5-poll-put-spotlight-on-two-Congressional-races-101516409.html

[quiller4]

2. Both polls were conducted by Survey USA and I really question the sample

I expect the 3rd to be close and Herrera probably has an edge but I doubt that the 2nd is in any danger.

[Upton]

3. I live in the 3rd

and this was always going to be a tough race for Heck. Plus the primary results weren't encouraging when you added up Republican versus Democratic votes. It's just a bad year. Still, I question SUSA too...a 13% margin for Herrera seems awful high to me..

[pscot]

4. Apparently the sample pollsters are looking at this year

differs significantly from the past. A diary over at Dkos noted more old folks are being sampled, partly because their numbers are increasing, and partly because they're more likely to vote. That's a judgement call to some degree. It's also a potentially self-fulfilling projection, if the story drives turnout.