Why to watch: The first of a handful of round-robin games that’ll decide the Big East championship, and one of ten BCS bowl berths, makes for a wild Friday night game in what’s become something of a grudge match. The Bulls became a national story by beating Auburn three weeks ago, but can become the story of the first month of 2007 by upsetting West Virginia for a second straight year. The biggest game in USF history is also expected to attract the biggest crowd in the school’s history, a likely first-ever sellout that has students camping out in tents for the few remaining tickets. In terms of electricity and anticipation for an up-and-coming program, expect a scene that mirrors last November’s game between Louisville and Rutgers. The Mountaineers are steamrolling everything in their path, winning four games by an average of 30 points with the same formula of Patrick White and Steve Slaton that continues to work so well. If West Virginia has any hopes of competing for national championship consideration, it has to handle one of the few ranked teams on the schedule, particularly with so many pollsters glued to the tube Friday night. With Louisville running a fade route, a win over South Florida would make the ‘eers the prohibitive favorite to win the conference.
Why West Virginia might win: Has anyone been paying attention to the transformation of Jeff Casteel’s defense? While the offensive stars get all the pub, the D sort of gets lost in the shuffle. The unit that was maligned a year ago has had at least three sacks in all four games and is No. 15 in the country in total defense. Led by linebackers Mortty Ivy, Marc Magro, and Reed Williams, the Mountaineers have been flying to the ball, creating turnovers, and making life easier for a secondary that’s still developing. South Florida QB Matt Grothe is a sparkplug, but his supporting cast is just average and his line will have trouble with the West Virginia pass rush. If the Mountaineers land a few blows early, the Bulls will labor to mount a comeback against an underrated defense that’s gaining confidence every week.
Why South Florida might win: West Virginia is all about the speed, but South Florida is the one program on the schedule that can neutralize the burners with a swarming D that ranks in the top ten nationally in total defense, pass efficiency defense, turnover margin, sacks, and tackles for loss. Since becoming a starter early in 2005, Slaton has been held under 100 yards rushing just four times, twice by the Bulls, including last November’s 43-yard career low-point. USF can also contain White with the shutdown tandem of CBs Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams, and the edge rushing of DE George Selvie, who leads the nation in sacks. West Virginia won’t be contained all night, but it’ll snap off half the big plays it normally creates against lesser defenses.
Who to watch: In a nip-and-tuck game that could go either way, don’t be surprised if the kickers/punters, West Virginia’s Pat McAfee and South Florida’s Delbert Alvarado, play a huge part in the outcome. Advantage Mountaineers. Alvarado, in particular, bears watching after responding to four missed field goals in the Auburn game by going 3-of-3 in Saturday’s win over North Carolina. If called upon late to win the game, can he be for USF what Jeremy Ito was to Rutgers in last year’s upset of Louisville?
What will happen: In a potential bear trap game with North Carolina, South Florida remained focused and destroyed the Heels 37-10, a clear sign that these Bulls are for real. They’ll add another brick in the wall Friday night, getting some late-game heroics from Grothe and the defense that empty the stands at Raymond James Stadium and raise the ante for the program.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 28 … West Virginia 24
http://cfn.scout.com/2/650789.html Wrong! We're gonna kill 'em.