A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

[WillE]

												
A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

TruthIsAll

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm
												
A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

TruthIsAll

In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a
miracle over-the-head catch. He implicitly calculated the
mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack of the bat
using his built-in computer. 

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/mayscatch.jpg

Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory
equation changes over time as the dynamics of the electorate
change. The current election equation is a recursive function
of the prior. It's all in the MATH.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ExposingEndemicElectionFraudSince1968.htm

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all
since 1968. Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and
total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008);
estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the
recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election
voter turnout. 

The returning voter mix is calculated using the following
methods -depending on the objective: 

Method 1 
The Final NEP adjusts the mix to force a match to the recorded
vote. This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the
current, are fraud-free. The process of matching to the
official vote required that millions of phantom Bush phantoms
came to vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeds
100%). The official vote counts cannot be correct. 

Method 2 
The mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include
millions of uncounted votes. 

Method 3(True Vote) 
The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and
current election. The cumulative impact of earlier elections
is not taken into account. 

Method 4 (Recursive True Vote)
The problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating
endemic fraud of each election is eliminated. 

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially
derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast
in the previous election are reduced by voter mortality and
turnout in the current election and new voters are added to
the mix. 

The model used Final National Exit Poll vote shares – except
for 2004 when the vote shares were radically changed to match
the official tally. Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were
used to calculate the True Vote. 

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen
(2000 and 2004) and
probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. 

In order to match the official vote, there had to be an
average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of
Republicans. 

The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush
were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. 

The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and
Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise. 

In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m. 
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million. 
There were 6 million uncounted votes.

In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million vote landslide with 61.8% of
the vote. 
His True Vote share was 57.6%. 
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m. 
He won the True Vote by 4.5 million. 
There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.

In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker. 
There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m. 
He won the True Vote by over 20 million. 
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes. 
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.

In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m. 
He won the True Vote by 16 million. 
There were 8.7 million uncounted votes. 
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million. 
He won the True Vote by 4 million. 
There were 5.4 million uncounted votes. 
But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote. 

In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million. 

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded
vote. It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter
split. 

There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes. 
HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched? 

In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m. 
He won the True Vote by over 20 million. 
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded
vote.
It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8076_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_12627_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8143_image001.gif

In mathematical terms, 
TV(i,j) = TV(i-1,k)* VS(k,j), k=1,4; j=1,3
where TV(i,j) = True Vote Cast for candidate (j) in election
(i),
VS(k,j) = Share of Candidate j shares of Returning and new
voters (k). 

2008 True Vote
TV(2008,1)= Obama = 58.2%
TV(2008,2)= McCain= 40.3%
TV(2008,3)= Other = 1.5%%

2004 True Vote
TV(2004,1)= Kerry = 53.6%
TV(2004,2)= Bush  = 45.4%
TV(2004,3)= Other =  1.3%

Obama Vote shares
VS(1,1)= 73% of DNV
VS(2,1)= 89% of Kerry
VS(3,1)= 17% of Bush
VS(4,1)= 66% of Other

McCain Vote Shares
VS(1,2)= 27% of DNV
VS(2,2)=  9% of Kerry
VS(3,2)= 82% of Bush
VS(4,2)= 24% of Other

Other Vote Shares
VS(1,3)=  0% of DNV
VS(2,3)=  2% of Kerry
VS(3,3)=  1% of Bush
VS(4,3)= 10% of Other


2008 
Likely voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of
Registered voter (RV) polls. LV polls do not include many
newly registered voters. In the last 5 elections, Democrats
won new voters by a 15% average margin. Obviously, LV polls
understate the Democratic vote in high-turnout elections. 

In 2004, there were 22 million new voters. Kerry won the group
by nearly 20%. Obama won new voters by 71-27%. 

Pre-election Likely Voter tracking polls had Obama leading by
50-43% before undecided voters were allocated (UVA).

Pre-election Registered Voter polls had Obama leading by
53-40% before UVA. With UVA, Obama was leading by 57-42%.

Based on the 2004 recorded vote, Obama had 55.2%.
Obama won the True Vote (below) with 58.2%.


	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	2008	Final NEP Vote shares
2004	2004	2004	2008	2008	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	16.44	11.9%	73%	27%	0%
Kerry	67.13	59.03	63.77	61.86	61.86	47.1%	89%	9%	2%
Bush	56.96	62.04	54.11	52.49	52.49	39.9%	17%	82%	1%
Other	1.65	1.23	1.57	1.52	1.52	1.2%	66%	26%	8%

Total	125.74	122.30	119.45	115.87	132.31	100%	58.09%	40.48%	1.43%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	76.86	53.56	1.90
Kerry	53.39%	48.27%				Record	52.87%	45.60%	1.53%
Bush	45.30%	50.73%				131.46	69.50	59.95	2.01
Other	1.31%	1.00%							

2004 
Bush had an 48% approval rating on Election Day. There were 22
million new voters - mostly Democratic. Returning Gore voters
were out for blood. Nader voters were defecting to Kerry. It
should have been a slam-dunk. And it was. Kerry won the True
Vote by a landslide. But only the recorded vote counts. And
Bush "won" by 3 million recorded votes.

To match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust
the returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit
Poll to an impossible 43/37% - which meant there were 52.6m
returning Bush voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in
2000. Approximately 48 million were still alive and 47 million
voted in 2004. 

However, just changing the mix was not sufficient to match
Bush's official 62 million  tally. The exit pollsters also had
to raise Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP. His share of
new voters jumped from 41% to 45%; Gore voters from 8% to 10%;
Bush voters from 90% to 91%. It makes no sense to apply the
bogus Final 2004 NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares to
calculate the True Vote. The 12:22am update (13047
respondents) shares are used.

The sensitivity analyses tables confirmed a Kerry landslide.
In the worst case returning vote scenario (Gore 90%, Bush
98%), Kerry wins by 7.8 million votes. In the worst case vote
share scenario, Kerry had 8% of returning Bush voters and 55%
share of new voters. He wins by 9.4 million votes.

According to the Final NEP, Bush needed an impossible 112%
turnout of returning Bush 2000 voters to match the official
vote. Gore turnout had to be 95%.


	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	2004	12:22am NEP vote shares
2000	2000	2000	2004	2004	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	22.56	15.6%	57%	41%	2%
Gore	55.79	51.00	53.00	51.94	51.94	42.5%	91%	8%	1%
Bush	51.05	50.46	48.50	47.53	47.53	38.9%	10%	90%	0%
Other	3.99	3.96	3.79	3.71	3.71	3.0%	64%	17%	19%

Total	110.83	105.42	105.28	103.18	125.74	100%	53.39%	45.30%	1.31%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	67.13	56.96	1.65
Gore	50.34%	48.38%				Record	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
Bush	46.06%	47.86%				122.30	59.03	62.04	1.23
Other	3.60%	3.76%							

2000 
Gore was running coming off a prior Clinton landslide. On
Election Day 2000, Slick Willie still enjoyed high approval
ratings - despite that cheap cigar.

There were 5.4 million net (of stiffed) uncounted votes.
Figure 75% to Gore. Do the math. He won the True Vote by
approximately 5.5 million.


	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	2000	Final NEP vote shares
1996	1996	1996	2000	2000	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	15.05	9.1%	52%	43%	5%
Clinton	56.34	47.40	53.53	51.39	51.39	48.7%	82%	15%	3%
Dole	39.03	39.20	37.08	35.60	35.60	33.8%	7%	91%	2%
Perot	9.64	9.68	9.16	8.79	8.79	8.3%	39%	49%	12%

Total	105.02	96.28	99.77	95.78	110.83	100%	50.34%	46.06%	3.60%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	55.79	51.05	3.99
Clinton	53.65%	49.23%				Record	48.38%	47.86%	3.76%
Dole	37.17%	40.71%				105.42	51.00	50.46	3.96
Perot	9.18%	10.05%							

1996 
Clinton enjoyed high popularity in a recovering economy; the
deficit was turning into a surplus. He had won a major
landslide in 1992 with Independent Perot capturing 20% of the
vote (most would have gone to Poppy Bush). In 1996, Perot had
just 10%. Approximately 42% of returning 1992 Perot voters
defected to Dole and 32% to Clinton. Clinton's True Vote share
increased from 51.8% to 53.6%.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1996	Final NEP vote shares
1992	1992	1992	1996	1996	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Dole	Perot
DNV	-	-	-	-	9.83	1.1%	55%	33%	12%
Clinton	59.07	44.91	56.12	49.39	49.39	51.3%	85%	9%	6%
Bush	35.12	39.11	33.36	29.36	29.36	30.5%	13%	82%	5%
Perot	19.67	20.41	18.69	16.45	16.45	17.1%	32%	42%	26%

Total	113.87	104.42	108.17	95.19	105.02	100%	53.65%	37.17%	9.18%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	56.34	39.03	9.64
Clinton	51.88%	43.01%				Record	49.23%	40.71%	10.05%
Bush	30.84%	37.45%				96.28	47.40	39.20	9.68

1992 
Bush was running as a very unpopular incumbent (S&L,
Iran-Contra, exploding deficit, imploding economy. Clinton was
poised to win late undecideds. Perot was running as a strong
Independent candidate - mostly pulling votes from Bush. It was
a major landslide, much bigger than the official 6 million
vote margin. The True Vote model indicates that Clinton had
52%, Perot 17%, Bush 31%. Without Perot, it probably would
have been 57-43%.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1992	Final NEP vote shares 
1988	1988	1988	1992	1992	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Bush	Perot
DNV	-	-	-	-	18.70	8.9%	46%	25%	29%
Dukakis	51.67	41.81	49.09	48.11	48.11	46.1%	83%	5%	12%
Bush	49.52	48.89	47.04	46.10	46.10	44.1%	21%	59%	20%
Other	1.03	0.90	0.98	0.96	0.96	0.9%	32%	30%	38%

Total	102.22	91.60	97.11	95.17	113.87	100%	51.88%	30.84%	17.28%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	59.07	35.12	19.67
Dukakis	50.55%	45.65%				Record	43.01%	37.45%	19.54%
Bush	48.44%	53.37%				104.42	44.91	39.11	20.41

1988
This was the beginning of the Bush reign of terror. The
Iran-Contra scandal. along with a sliding economy, had taken
it's toll on Reagan/Bush. Dukakis was the early favorite. But
this was a Bush running; the Mighty Wurlitzer was in place.
CNN ambushed Dukakis in the first question of the first debate
by letting Willie Horton loose. But Dukakis may have won
anyway. If the 10.6 million (net of stuffed) uncounted votes
had been counted, it would have been much closer than the
bogus official 7 million Bush margin. And the unadjusted exit
polls showed a dead-heat.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1988	Final NEP vote shares 
1984	1984	1984	1988	1988	Turnout	Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	11.25	0.7%	47%	51%	2%
Mondale	43.81	37.58	41.62	39.12	39.12	42.7%	92%	7%	1%
Reagan	57.44	54.46	54.57	51.30	51.30	56.0%	19%	80%	1%
Other	0.62	0.62	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.6%	49%	50%	1%

Total	101.88	92.65	96.78	90.98	102.22	100%	50.55%	48.44%	1.01%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	51.67	49.52	1.03
Mondale	43.00%	40.56%				Record	45.65%	53.37%	0.98%
Reagan	56.39%	58.77%				91.60	41.81	48.89	0.90


1984
It was a landslide. No cheating was necessary.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1984	Required to match recorded
1980	1980	1980	1984	1984	Turnout	Mix	Mondale	Reagan	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	17.89	9.3%	31%	68%	1%
Carter	39.71	35.48	37.72	35.83	35.83	38.7%	82%	18%	0%
Reagan	46.14	43.90	43.84	41.64	41.64	44.9%	11%	88%	1%
Anderson 7.22	7.19	6.86	6.51	6.51	7.0%	49%	50%	1%

Total	93.07	86.58	88.41	83.99	101.88	100%	43.00%	56.39%	0.61%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	43.81	57.44	0.62
Carter	42.66%	40.99%				Record	40.56%	58.77%	0.67%
Reagan	49.58%	50.71%				92.65	37.58	54.46	0.62


1980
Carter wanted to do some good things: conserve energy; bring
peace to the ME. But Reagan and Poppy Bush worked out a deal
with the Ayatolla to hold off the release of the hostages
until Inauguration Day.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1980	Required to match recorded
1976	1976	1976	1980	1980	Turnout	Mix	Carter	Reagan	Anderson
DNV	-	-	-	-	15.64	10.6%	39%	44%	17%
Carter	45.56	40.83	43.29	40.69	40.69	47.0%	71%	22%	7%
Ford	39.65	39.15	37.67	35.41	35.41	40.9%	11%	83%	6%
Other	1.48	1.55	1.41	1.32	1.32	1.5%	44%	42%	14%

Total	86.70	81.53	82.36	77.42	93.07	100%	42.66%	49.58%	7.76%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	39.71	46.14	7.22
Carter	52.56%	50.08%				Record	40.99%	50.71%	8.30%
Ford	45.73%	48.02%				86.58	35.48	43.90	7.19

1976
America wanted a straight-shooter in the White House as an
antidote to the Nixon years.

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1976	Required to match recorded
1972	1972	1972	1976	1976	Turnout	Mix	Carter	Ford	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	10.11	6.1%	57%	40%	3%
McGovern 34.44	28.17	32.72	30.76	30.76	37.7%	92%	7%	1%
Nixon	48.90	47.17	46.46	43.67	43.67	53.6%	24%	74%	2%
Other	2.42	2.40	2.30	2.16	2.16	2.7%	58%	39%	3%

Total	85.77	77.74	81.48	76.59	86.70	100%	52.56%	45.73%	1.71%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	45.56	39.65	1.48
McGovern40.16%	36.24%				Record	50.08%	48.02%	1.90%
Nixon	57.02%	60.67%				81.53	40.83	39.15	1.55

1972
All those dirty tricks were unnecessary. But Rove learned from
the master- Donald Segretti. 

1968 
Was it the silent majority or the 6 million uncounted votes?
In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m. 
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million. 

	Cast 	Record	Alive	Voted 	1972	Required to match recorded
1968	1968	1968	1972	1972	Turnout	Mix	McGovern Nixon	Other
DNV	-	-	-	-	16.75	11.2%	43%	53%	4%
Humphrey 35.77	31.27	33.98	31.26	31.26	40.2%	71%	28%	1%
Nixon	33.08	31.78	31.43	28.91	28.91	37.2%	6%	89%	5%
Wallace	10.12	9.91	9.61	8.84	8.84	11.4%	40%	59%	1%

Total	78.97	72.97	75.02	69.02	85.77	100%	40.16%	57.02%	2.82%

	Cast	Recorded			Total	34.44	48.90	2.42
Humphrey45.30%	42.86%				Record	36.24%	60.67%	3.09%
Nixon	41.89%	43.56%				77.74	28.17	47.17	2.40