How Al Gore May Still Become President (DKos Diary)

[lildreamer316]

by NYPopulist
Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:52:14 PM PST
Based on the title of the diary, I'm sure many of you are thinking, "Yeah, yeah, another Gore supporter who has yet to face reality and concede he isn't running." Well not quite; in fact, I've moved on and have since come to support Obama (though I very much like Edwards). That all being said, however, it seems as though it is becoming more and more likely that Al Gore may still become the Democratic nominee come August 2008. But how can that be, you ask? Follow me below the fold for an explanation.


The simple fact remains that a majority of delegates must be received in order to win the party nomination. Thus, Hillary, Obama, or Edwards must receive at least 2209 of the 4372 delegates. What does that have anything to do with Gore you might ask? Well, consider this: a three-way race emerges and none of the three major candidates obtain a majority of delegates. That, of course, would result in a brokered convention, an idea that until recently I had thought was little more than a political scientist's fantasy.

I'll be honest: I thought anything less than an outright Edwards win in Iowa would virtually knock him out of the race. Seemingly, though, I was wrong. On the contrary, Edwards seems to be enjoying quite a bounce from his 2nd place finish - he has tacked on nine points to his national numbers over the past week. Likewise, he's creeping up to 20% in recent New Hampshire polls. In short, if Edwards has a better-than-expected showing in New Hampshire, this will be a three-person race. Also, as Chris Bowers noted earlier today, Clinton will have a significant share of the delegate count regardless of how she does in the early states, especially with her automatic win in Michigan later this month. Finally, although they will not accumulate a significant number of delegates, Richardson and Kucinich will accumulate some votes at the convention, especially if they hang around through February 5

More at link...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/7/21724/47161

[rodbailey]

1. Some hope is better

than no hope. I think a lot of us have envisioned this scenario as we went somewhat happily along on our quest to get Gore's name on primary ballots one way or another - only to have all the primary possibilities dashed by rumors and orders from web masters. The NH thing is the latest in that category. I still have seen no really credible source that Gore might endorse anyone and, I'm now wondering if the Bradely endorsement of Obama was what was on the grape-vine that folks were picking up and thought it might be Gore doing the endorsing. Anyway, it's been that kind of primary season so far. As with some of the rest of you, I've kind of moved on (although I'd be back to Gore in a second if there was movement of some sort); I just signed up with the local Obama group and will be attending my first meeting (organization for the GOTV effort) this Saturday. If we can have a decent showing for him here in NY (Hillary's home, of course) that might really get us a long way toward that brokered convention which seems to be the last, best hope to get Gore on the Dem. ticket. So, just call me fickle, but I figured I had to put my energies somewhere that they might lead to someone at the top of the ticket other than a Clinton. Thanks for the post.

[rosesaylavee]

2. Oh, thanks for this post!

I have not moved on... in fact can't really put myself in anyone's camp. I don't particularly like any of the top three and was just warming up to Dodd and Biden when they pulled the plug.

I will probably vote for whoever appears to be in third place when my primary rolls around... maybe. Who knows. But this was a great thing to read and I am hoping for a brokered convention.

[lildreamer316]

14. Me too.

It would make history...

[rosesaylavee]

3. Eh, don't look now but the Biden supporters

are hoping for a brokered convention too. They even have a group of peeps who are going to lobby Biden to re-enter the race. Where be our peeps? Lots of lurkers - not a lot of posters.

[SharonRB]

4. I just haven't had much to say lately, Rose, but I'm still here

I was in the same position you were in -- I had finally landed on Dodd or Biden (Biden most recently), and then POOF! they were gone. I'm for Edwards now, but it doesn't matter much, since I can't vote for either him or Obama in our stupid primary. Uncommitted will get my vote and I'll hope for the best -- that Hillary doesn't get Michigan handed to her on a silver platter. As of now our delegates won't even be seated, but we'll see what happens down the road.

[rosesaylavee]

8. I am so sorry about Michigan.

If more people vote uncommitted, what happens to the delegates? Have not been following it that closely. I know HRC is planning on cleaning up there and having enough delegates just from that to send her on to the convention.

Nice sig line btw. Garnered a donation for your boss over the weekend. Do I get commission?

[SharonRB]

9. Thanks!

Sorry, no commissions, just lots of thanks!

Right now the DNC says our delegates won't get seated at all. Supposedly, that could change depending on the eventual candidate, but no one knows for sure at this point.

If there are at least 15% uncommitted votes in a particular precinct (or district, I'm not sure which), then there will be uncommitted delegates in proportion to the votes received. The more uncommitted delegates we get, the better. Those delegates, if seated, can vote for whoever they want at the convention. None of them will be voting for Hillary. She will have her own delegates since she's still on the ballot. I can see her spin already next week if she gets the delegates she expects. It will be very embarrassing if she gets any less than 60% of the votes, but I think it's possible if we get a big turnout of non-Hillary people.

[rodbailey]

5. Speaking of a brokered convention,

I was listening to Ed Shultz on radio today and the reports are that the Clinton people are starting to put pressure on the super delegates to come over to her so that she can pick up some delegates that way and, perhaps, force a brokered convention if Obama keeps rolling through the primaries like it looks like he will in NH tomorrow. Shultz's opinion was that that would really tee off a lot of regular primary voters pulling the lever for ABC, only to have her get a state's super delegates on her side by calling in political IOU's or worse. One caller suggested that if it was a brokered convention, then the Gore/Obama team might really be the ticket that gets selected. (That was music to my ears, but lots of folks have that as their dream team.) Shultz was almost speechless for a moment when the caller suggested that. I think his response was something along the lines of "Hmmm, ... interesting." Guess he hasn't been reading blogs here and there that are still looking to Gore to lead us out of the wilderness.

[rosesaylavee]

10. Rod, I have to ask this.

Which one is ABC? I regretfully admit my ignorance. Or does it just refer broadly to the top three in the polls?

[SharonRB]

11. ABC is "anybody but Clinton"

[rosesaylavee]

12. Ahhhh. I get it now.

[TheDoorbellRang]

6. God, what a wonderful dream

I've been floundering, wondering who to give my tepid support to. Like Rose and Sharon, Biden or Dodd were my second choices. Guess I'll just continue to wait and see...wait and see...

BTW, thanks so much lildreamer, for keeping the posts coming here. It's a very small refuge from the insanity that has spread thru GD.

[lildreamer316]

13. My pleasure.

I really don't know what else to do. I, for some reason, am not getting a good feeling about either Obama or Clinton, and Edwards...I like, but just am not very solid on either.
Guess I'm hard-headed.:shrug:

[Tuesday Afternoon]

7. Thanks for this.

Keep the faith. I can not get excited about anyone else. GORE is the man for me.

[lildreamer316]

15. ..

:hug: Me either..Gore all the way.

[GigiMommy]

16. Me too...

Had coffee with a friend this week and he asked me who am I voting for in the MI primary. I told him that the man I wanted isn't on the ballot and WAS NEVER on the ballot. I want Gore. I STILL want Gore. I need to know MORE about Clinton/Edwards/Obama's positions. I feel flustered & frustrated.

[rosesaylavee]

17. Right there with you - extremely frustrated.

Been toying with voting who ever is in third place when the Illinois primary rolls around. A brokered convention appears to be the only way to get Gore to step into the fray. And its turning out I dislike all three equally now - so I guess I got that going for me.

Welcome to the AG forum!

[SharonRB]

18. Hey, GiGi!

I'm voting Uncommitted -- as far as I'm concerned, if you're not a Hillary supporter, it's the only way to go. I'm so mad at Markos for starting this whole campaign over at Kos for Michigan people to vote for Romney. It's a stupid idea.

[GigiMommy]

19. Hi Sharon!!

:hi: I'm voting Uncommitted and I told my friend about that too. I know many people who are SO confused about this whole thing. They still don't really know why some candidates aren't on the ballot. And it's funny, I used "hang out" at Daily Kos all the time. Now, not so much. I like it here at DU.

[SharonRB]

20. I hang out here more, but I try to at least read a little at Kos

everyday -- there's just too much to read and I don't have time.

It's more like a conversation here and I've made a lot of friends. Glad I got you to start posting.

That thread where Markos is trying to get us to vote for Romney got enormous! I had no time to read all of the responses.