The future of Science Fiction

[YankeyMCC]

What will be the future of the genre?

Right now I personally think that the best Science Fiction is found in the short story category via the few remaining magazines like Asimov's and online ezines.

More and more science fiction novels are being published and according to Gardner Dozois the percentage of media related novels, like Trek novels, is not rising very much. Will there ever be another block buster novel like "Stranger in a Strange Land" or the Foundation Trilogy or "Dune"? Or will the plethora of authors and novels drown each other out in the noise?

It seems more and more blockbuster movies are science fiction or fantasy related, but they are still a small percentage of the movies released. Yet, whatever you think of how well the LoTR movies did in being faithful to the story it is hard to argue the special effects success. Technology seems likely to be able to make more and more fantastic settings practical and of high quality. I think it would be better sign for getting quality science fiction movies if each one didn't have to be a blockbuster, it would be healthier to be able to get quality science fiction movies out that just like in other genres only had to make money not blow out the boxoffice to justify more being made.

This same technology in special effects will make TV production more economical as well.

Technology in general is likely to affect science fiction significantly, it seems a natural connection. What new media will we see emerging as a significant source of science fiction stories? ebooks, continued growth of fanzines and ezines?

[Enraged_Ape]

1. More LaHaye-type books

Except presented as science-fiction rather than religio-nut fiction. And then they will be presented as non-fiction.

Unfortunately, as this country seems to be retreating rapidly back to the Dark Ages, I see less and less advances in technology that would spur great leaps in the imagination of science-fiction. The excitement about high tech that drove the Gernsback era and the great science fiction of the '60s and the '70s appears to be long behind us.

[phantom power]

2. well, some things come in cycles. Technology optimism versus

technology pessimism. The 70s gave rise to a lot of techno-pessimism. Dystopian books and movies were prevelant then.

Beginning with the Reagan era, there was a resurgance of techno-optimism. For example, David Brin.

I would say we're in for a resurgance of pessimism. Or, at least skepticism. Things are going to be difficult in the coming decades, and that will be reflected in literature.

Certainly, there are technology or science themes that come and go. The 1980s saw a lot of fascination with computers, and human-computer relations. The 1990s saw a lot of fascination with nano-tech. In the 1970s, I would say it was biology and ecology.

I think it's more difficult to predict these themes, since it's hard to predict where technology and science will take us.

[YankeyMCC]

3. Ah...

"I think it's more difficult to predict these themes, since it's hard to predict where technology and science will take us."

Very true...but still I think you're point will make for an interesting tangent.

So perhaps it's a bit sadist of me but I'm going to ask people to mkae those predictions :) What technologies do people think will be the focus of science fiction fasination.

Seems like the nanotech fasination spurred a lot of "Far Future" type stores.

I thinking that perhaps with the surge in attention that the latest gen of solar system probes, like Cassini, will spur a focus on more solar system bound technology and futures. But then perhaps that's wishful thinking on my part (not just that the pessimism mentioned above wont dampen things) because I enjoy those stories the most.

[phantom power]

4. I think we'll see a return to ecological disaster themes.

Either that, or something that represents escapism from *real* ecological disasters. On the other hand, maybe that never really stopped. John Barnes and Bruce Sterling did some good stories with that in recent years.

"Programmable matter" is a recent development. I see that a few authors have already done some stories with that.

I expect a lot of new science in the biotech arena. But then, people have been doing stories on biotech subjects for decades, going back at least to John Varley.

Emergent phenomena, the origins of order (apologies to Stuart Kauffman). I don't think a whole lot has been done with that. As a quantitative science, it's relatively undeveloped.