Is Northern Ireland a sustainable political unit in the long-term?

[Wat_Tyler]

Aside from the fact that a united Ireland is the goal of most of us here, let's think about how sustainable Northern Ireland is. Can Britain sustain 19,000 troops and what must amount to billions in subsidies to a sluggish economy and society over say, the next hundred years? Is the Province an artificial creation that has been sustained purely by the will of politicians? Can a political unit established on artificial boundaries that do not take into account economic realities last? What happens to Northern Ireland if the Republic does not re-absorb it? Is there, regardless of the possibility of reunification, a long-term future for Northern Ireland?

[DaveinMD]

1. its a certainty

that NI will be part of Ireland one day. It may not happen in our lifetime, but it will happen at some point.

[mrgorth]

2. No.

[Donkeyboy75]

3. Hmmm.

I would venture to guess that the situation is too dynamic to make accurate long term predictions. But, I think that ROI will be less and less willing as time goes on to take the economic burden off of the UK's hands. So, what then? The Brits can't just kick NI out of their kingdom, and if ROI doesn't want NI...then it's back to your question. And before you think I'm insane, a similar thing is happening in Korea. The 70s and 80s saw a huge movement towards a unified Korea...and then it looked like things were actually moving in that direction. Politicians against the Sunshine Policy mentioned the economics, and viola! SOME support vanished.

I would see it play out like this: the Brits make a major misstep in NI, public backlash makes them want to wash their hands of NI. I would envision a deal where the UK forks over some big bucks to grease the wheels and pass NI over to Ireland. Then...violence.