When will the "Baby Bust" happen?

[FormerDittoHead]

Everyone in the financial world has been talking this up for DECADES.

Putting aside the Republican "truth" that no one ever loses money investing in the stock market, there's a time to reap, and there's a time to sow.

The market's been fundamentally overvalued since the early 90's.

Currently, as the baby boomers are saving their money into their 401k's, the net balance of money flow into the market is positive.

Come retirement time, however, the trend will reverse, and if the law of supply and demand still works, the market will decline. My prediction is that, considering fund managers, this decline will happen quickly, precipitated by some "event" or "realization" or some other explaination the financial talking heads will use.

Until then, people investing (note: not speculating or day trading, I'm talking about overall market performance) in the stock market are playing a game of "chicken" only the loser will be the ones who stay ON the road...

The question is: when (if) do YOU think this time will come?

[silverlib]

1. I wish I knew -

Then I wouldn't have to worry about a thing.

My guess is 5 years, but then I'm great at getting in on a good deal, but I have never known when to get out.

[thoughtanarchist]

2. The market is driven

by a plethora of factors; much, much more than just boomers putting into or drawing from their 401k's. Your doomsday scenario is possible, but will likely not happen. More likely is that the effect you describe may produce a slight drag, but I wouldn't expect it to have more profound ripples in the market as a whole.

[Zynx]

3. This is an overestimated problem.

There will be plenty of new money to soak up the outflows.