Help me a bit, please. (Dennis)

[frictionlessO]

Im a real wreck today on top of London, Andy and the usual suspects...

Nearly my entire family lives in Destin/Niceville FL. One of my sisters hubby is insisting on sitting it out. Now I cant post a map, but Niceville is set just enough to the NE quad of Dennis current cone of probability, that Im terrified for my sister and her family. My mom is taking her duaghter with them and my other sisters are getting out with their respective fams.

What I need to know is from some of you buffs how likely is it that they are in serious crap? Is this quite possibly one of the dumbest decision a person can make? To stay this late in the game, or is he actually being smart and not jumping the gun??

My Mom for the first time ever yesterday aske dme to make plans to come down in case Im needed for help cleaning up. though i dont know what I could actually do... She has never asked me to do this before as I live in NY and am totally afraid of flying. Even though we have had some serious emergencies wher I could have helped.

I guess im looking for some knowledge and reassurances and some good DU dirt on this storm... help a fellow DU'er out with some info and knowledgeable speculation if you can.

Thanks much...

[TroubleMan]

1. It depends

If they live in a mobile home or trailer park, they should not stay there.

If they live in a solid house or apartment that's not in an area that's prone to flooding, then they can sit it out. It's not that bad. They need to board up the windows or put up hurricane shutters. They should also stock up on gas, food (non-perishable), water, candles, lighters, and batteries. If they have a generator, make sure they get extra oil for it, because if you run it a lot, you need to change the oil every so often.

I went through two basically direct hits here in West Palm Beach. I was glad I was here in order to take care of things. IMHO if you are prepared it's more annoying than dangerous (but don't take it lightly).

Also, if any of them has a medical condition which requires regular medical treatment, like if they need dialysis or something, then they should leave or go to a shelter.

[frictionlessO]

2. Good stuff! Thanks! Im sure they know some of this...

The house is in a medium risk flood area, its two stories and about 20 yeras old.

I feel a little better, were your hits cat 3-5??

[TroubleMan]

3. Francis and Jeanne

The first one was a 4 and second one was a 3 (at the times they hit us). The Cat 3 was actually worse than the Cat 4, because it was moving really slowly. We had super strong winds for about 24 hours. It seemed like an eternity. Also, the ground was already saturated from the one before, so the flooding was worse.

[frictionlessO]

6. Ouch!

I went through one once but it was barely a cat 1, still lots of minor injuries and mobile homes trashed and trees down everywhere.

Thanks again!

[Baclava]

4. I'm not leaving...yet...have to wait and see what it does off Cuba

I live in Fort Walton Beach, 5mi from Niceville.
I rode out Ivan and didn't lose a shingle, although we were 30mi away from the eyewall. The power was off for about 4 days, though...lots of trees and roofs got damage around the neighboorhood.

The thing with this storm is the eye is really small, only about
15 mi wide...that's where the most intense winds are.

It would take a direct hit to do a lot of damage.
You roll the dice and take your chances...wobble, wobble...

[frictionlessO]

5. Yep its all about the wobble especially that last one.

Are ya military? My whole family is in one way or another.

I love that whole area but it freaks me out over how fast it has grown and is growing. I love visiting though and filling up on amberjack and seafood. I miss my family constantly even though we are fairly diverged in our political and spirtual beliefs.

Maybe next time Im down there my wife and I can buy you dinner or something?


edited to add, you keep your head down too and take much care. May FWB and Niceville come out on the western half... not fair, I know but....

[Baclava]

7. Ex AF

My retirement was last year right before Ivan.

Even got the required retiree fishing boat. It made it through Ivan fine too, stored high and dry at the marina. We'll see how my luck holds.

It's still cheap to live around here and my house doubled in price in the last year...the best part, everything's insured.

No worries mate....come on down and buy me a beer.

[frictionlessO]

8. Ok but you cant tell my family about my DU self!!

My gods they might not talk to me for hours... lol.

Hey if you're still posting on DU next time I go down (which might be next week;) then yep beer on me... and uh maybe if ya like me you cn atwist my arm into a spot of fishing or something...lol.

Boat? Officer? Pilot?

[Baclava]

9. Bite yur tongue

Enlisted corpsman.
3 years in a row of eating desert sands gave me some play money.

[HeeBGBz]

10. I have made no plans yet

Gulfport still doesn't seem to be where they are projecting a hit but the infrared sure looks like it will. I don't plan on going anywhere but I suppose that could change.

[Mutley]

11. If he hits as a cat4 there could be problems.

But if your family is used to hurricanes they should be okay. I've only been through a few myself, and they weren't that bad. The worst was Gloria waaaay back in the day when I was 6 or 7. I can't remember what cat it was when it hit but we had to go to a shelter. Scary stuff! The most recent was Isabelle, which was really only a tropical depression by the time it reached my area. But still a pretty bad storm for Maryland. We're so not used to that sort of thing around here.