***Mississippi Thread here (please post here)

[rodeodance]

Go to link for good graphs:


Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Mississippi preview: Obama and Clinton demographic strongholds
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4922142#4922142
4922142, Mississippi preview: Obama and Clinton demographic strongholds
Posted by usregimechange on Thu Mar-06-08 01:17 AM



Mississippi (03/11/2008 - 40 delegates)
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 1.8% - Much less than the national average = ++Obama
Black persons, percent, 2006: 37.1% (2nd highest in US) - Much higher than the national average = ++Obama
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 12.4% - Tied with national average = No advantage
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 16.9% - Less than national average = +Clinton
(Overall advantage: +++Obama)
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/28000.html


Obama Strongholds:


Hinds County (Jackson urban vote) is 65.9% Black, fewer 65+ elderly voters and is more educated with 27.2% with a Bachelors degree or higher.

Lafayette County (home of Ole Miss) is one the three intellectual havens of Mississippi - it is highly educated compared of the state with 31.1% of the population with a Bachelors degree or higher.

Madison County (North Jackson suburbs) the other intellectual oasis of Mississippi has 37.9% of the population with a Bachelor's degree or higher. Interestingly Hillary is campaigning here soon at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer Day Dinner. I am not sure why as the demographics do not favor her.

Oktibbeha County (home of Mississippi State University) is also highly educated and has less than 10% of individuals who are 65+ years old.

High African American western rural counties along the Mississippi river such as Claiborne County (84.6% Black), Holmes County (80.9%), Jefferson County (85.9%). There are a few in the east like Noxubee County.

Mississippi African American County Population Map



Clinton Strongholds:


Harrison County (Gulfport and Biloxi) and Jackson County are two coastal counties with high white populations (more than 70%).

DeSoto County (Memphis suburbs) has almost 80% white voters that are mostly not well educated but this may be a battleground as it also is wealthy and has fewer elderly citizens. This is a big Republican county which went to Bush by 72% in 2004.

Lee county (Tupelo) is mostly white (71%) and Bill Clinton will be campaign there soon.

Rural eastern Mississippi counties like Tishomingo County (95.4% white, old, low income, and less educated) and Itawamba County (92.5% white, less educated, and has more elderly).


Mississippi Population Map:



Mississippi 2004 Election Results by County:



Mississippi 2006 Election Results by County:





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[rodeodance]

1. Some other info

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Some other info
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4922142#4924294
4924294, Some other info
Posted by mohc on Thu Mar-06-08 07:56 AM

CD1 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 26.3% of the population
CD2 has 7 delegates, and blacks make up 63.5% of the population
CD3 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 33.3% of the population
CD4 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 22.3% of the population

And these percentages will be inflated in the primary. Whites are far more likely to be Republican, and blacks far more likely to be Democratic, than in the population at large. In 2004, only 14% of whites voted for Kerry, while 90% of blacks did. It is an open primary, so we could see some Republicans crossing over, but it is unlikely that it will be a large enough percentage to matter. In a 5 delegate district, one must receive more than 70% of the vote to split 4-1, and must get more than 85% to make it 5-0. The 5 delegate districts have a smaller black percentage so they will likely just go 3-2 for whomever wins the district. CD1 and CD3 will almost certainly go for Obama, even if by a small margin. Clinton has a shot at CD4, but Obama would still be favored. In a 7 delegate district one must get over 64.3% to split 5-2 and over 78.6% to split 6-1, and again 85% is needed to win all delegates. Obama will probably win 6-1, worst case 5-2. Statewide there are 4 PLEO delegates, a candidate would need 62.5% statewide to split 3-1, so this will either be 2-2 or 3-1 for Obama. There are 7 at-large delegates as well, and the splits here are the same as above for the 7 delegate district. Even in a worst case scenario this would be 4-3 for Obama, but he certainly could get 5-2.

So my completely unreliable predictions would be:
CD1: 3 - 2 Obama
CD2: 6 - 1 Obama
CD3: 3 - 2 Obama
CD4: 3 - 2 Obama
PLEO: 2 - 2
At-large: 5 - 2 Obama
Total: 22 - 11 Obama

[rodeodance]

2. Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4928582#4928582
4928582, Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.
Posted by Maddy McCall on Thu Mar-06-08 12:46 PM

In studies on the status of women, Mississippi ranks FIFTY-FIRST. At the bottom.

Mississippi only created a Status of Women commission in 2000, thanks to Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove, who listened to a group of women activists in the state. However, the state still refuses to fund the commission. So you have a commission of women who desire to study the status of women in the state, but the legislature won't allocate money to the commission to study this. This state commission has not even been given office space.

We have no women in Congress. There is a huge wage gap between men and women in the state. Women in Mississippi are at the bottom of the four socioeconomic indicators--health insurance, college education, business ownership, and poverty. On the composite index for reproductive rights and women's health, Mississippi is at the bottom.

http://www.iwpr.org/states2002/pdfs/USRIB.pdf

Mississippi wasn't ranked lowest just once. Mississippi CONSISTENTLY ranks fifty-first in the status of women. The bottom. Imagine as a woman living in a society like this.

When you rip into Hillary Clinton for her remarks about Mississippi...please keep in mind that she's right...and when you take her comments and attempt to defend the state as being somehow victimized by Hillary's comments, PLEASE keep in mind the women of my state, who are SUFFERING for the very reasons that Hillary mentioned.

[UALRBSofL]

4. rodeodance, I wonder if Hillary is putting much effort in Mississippi

I called the office in Jackson, spoke to someone who didn't have a clue. I asked him if they needed help caucusing or phone banking, he didn't know but said he had to go. The phone number in Jackson was just listed today. So I called the main number in VA and asked them what I could do to help. They transferred me to another number, left a message but they never called back. This is not good.

[rodeodance]

6. She is done there today and Friday. so is Bill.

[rodeodance]

7. damm.... not to organized are they!! another matter---go to this thread please

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4933933&mesg_id=4933933

[vireo]

14. You might try using the contact form at the web site

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/action/voltravel/?sc=2369

[rodeodance]

3. Lott Waits for Clinton's Apology and Gets One

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20 ...

Lott Waits for Clinton's Apology and Gets One

By Mary Ann Akers And Paul Kane
Thursday, October 25, 2007; Page A23

It's a good thing she apologized, because Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) was fixin' to give Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) a piece of his mind.

Lott was on the cusp of issuing a serious condemnation of the Democratic presidential front-runner for insulting the Magnolia State this week when his phone rang.

"To her credit, she called me and apologized," Lott told On the Hill.

Clinton chose wisely to make the quick apology after insulting Mississippians with a comment she made in an interview with Iowa's most important political reporter, the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen. Clinton was quoted expressing complete "shock" at learning that Iowa and Mississippi were the only states that have never elected a female governor or a female member of either chamber of Congress.

"How can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi?" she asked, implying the Hawkeye State is above such distinction. "That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism, that's not the openness I see in Iowa."

Lott was furious when aides notified him of the put-down. He said he wanted to sound off right away but instead paused and waited to read the entire context of her remarks, something he said he has learned to do the hard way because of his own various guffaw-inducing statements over the years. (Those include not just his praise of the 1948 Dixiecrat presidential candidate Strom Thurmond, but also his comments after Clinton won her Senate race in 2000 that "maybe lightning will strike" her and she would die before getting sworn into the chamber.) "I understand that we sometimes say what we don't always mean to say," Lott said.

Still, he is a little disturbed that Clinton views Mississippi as politically sexist. He noted that the last two lieutenant governors have been women and that the first female jurist was recently appointed to the state's U.S. District Court.

Plus, Lott added, who is Clinton to talk? "Having lived in Arkansas, which is something of a whipping boy, too, she knows better than that," Lott said.

[rodeodance]

5. Obama launches negative radio ad in Mississippi to keep Women down!

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Obama launches negative radio ad in Mississippi
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4933933#4933933
4933933, Obama launches negative radio ad in Mississippi
Posted by carlotta on Thu Mar-06-08 05:31 PM

CNN) – Barack Obama’s campaign has debuted a new radio ad in Mississippi called "Respect," highlighting what they call “derogatory” remarks Hillary Clinton made about the state late last year.

The ad also argues that Obama will “practice his Christian faith by respecting us” — an apparent push-back against the false Muslim rumors that have dogged him throughout the campaign.

In the 30-second spot, former Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus, an Obama supporter, derides Clinton for comments she made last fall singling out the state’s record of electing female politicians.

<snip>

Mabus accuses the Clinton campaign of calling Mississippi voters “second class.”

“Now I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of people putting us down,” Mabus says in the ad. “Tired of politicians trying to divide our nation instead of lifting it up.”


Oh, brother. I'm so glad Obama's going to be practicing his Christian faith by respecting us. Does he mean it's Christian to keep women down?

[rodeodance]

10. You know Ray Mabus? The one defending Barack in Mississippi?

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject You know Ray Mabus? The one defending Barack in Mississippi?
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4936663#4936663
4936663, You know Ray Mabus? The one defending Barack in Mississippi?
Posted by Maddy McCall on Thu Mar-06-08 07:45 PM

The former governor of Mississippi?

Let me tell ya about this guy.

When Mabus' wife Julie went to her priest for counseling when the couple was having marital problems, Mabus taped her supposedly confidential session with her priest, and then used it against her in divorce court.

The guy is slime.

[rodeodance]

8. Clinton Campaign Announces Mississippi Co-Chairs State Rep. Flaggs and Former State Sen. Williamson

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=6403


3/6/2008
Clinton Campaign Announces Mississippi Co-Chairs State Rep. Flaggs and Former State Sen. Williamson Will Lead Statewide Efforts

The Clinton campaign today announced State Representative George Flaggs and Former State Senator Gloria Williamson will co-chair the campaign’s efforts in the Magnolia State. Flaggs and Williamson will mobilize grassroots support for Hillary leading up to Mississippi’s March 11 primary.

Representative Flaggs was elected to the Mississippi House of Representatives in 1988, and has been a tireless advocate for educational opportunities for all of Mississippi’s youth, and common sense juvenile justice reforms. As Chairman of the House Juvenile Justice Committee, Rep. Flaggs instituted the most comprehensive juvenile justice reform in Mississippi history.

"I’m very proud to stand up and support Hillary. I know she will stand up and deliver real changes for Mississippi families each day as president," said Rep. Flaggs. "Hillary Clinton is a fighter, and our country needs someone to fight for quality, affordable health care, to rebuild our middle class, and to bring our troops home from Iraq."

Former State Senator Gloria Williamson served in the Mississippi House of Representatives, representing Leake, Neshoba and Winston Counties.

"I'm thrilled to have this kind of support throughout Mississippi, and look forward to harnessing our grassroots momentum to bring out our support next week," Clinton said. "I believe Mississippi voters want someone who can help deliver affordable health care to everyone who needs it, jump start the economy, and be a strong commander in chief, and I intend to be a president for all of Mississippi."

[rodeodance]

9. Clinton's Mississippi comment blasted

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Clinton's Mississippi comment blasted
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4925833#4925833
4925833, Clinton's Mississippi comment blasted
Posted by BOSSHOG on Thu Mar-06-08 10:03 AM

BUT I THINK THIS IS MORE OF A REFLECTION ON THOSE DOING THE BLASTING THEN ON CLINTON.

Back in October Clinton said "I was shocked when I learned that Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman Governor, Senator, or member of congress." She went on to make disparaging comparisons between the two states. Not smart politics but a truthful observation.

http://www.sunherald.com/278/story/414671.html

So I guess those doing the blasting would rather maintain the status quo.

Both Clintons will be in Mississippi this week. The state's primary is next tuesday.

[rodeodance]

11. Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4928582#4928582
4928582, Hillary's right. Mississippi is the worst state for women in numerous studies.
Posted by Maddy McCall on Thu Mar-06-08 12:46 PM

In studies on the status of women, Mississippi ranks FIFTY-FIRST. At the bottom.

Mississippi only created a Status of Women commission in 2000, thanks to Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove, who listened to a group of women activists in the state. However, the state still refuses to fund the commission. So you have a commission of women who desire to study the status of women in the state, but the legislature won't allocate money to the commission to study this. This state commission has not even been given office space.

We have no women in Congress. There is a huge wage gap between men and women in the state. Women in Mississippi are at the bottom of the four socioeconomic indicators--health insurance, college education, business ownership, and poverty. On the composite index for reproductive rights and women's health, Mississippi is at the bottom.

http://www.iwpr.org/states2002/pdfs/USRIB.pdf

Mississippi wasn't ranked lowest just once. Mississippi CONSISTENTLY ranks fifty-first in the status of women. The bottom. Imagine as a woman living in a society like this.

When you rip into Hillary Clinton for her remarks about Mississippi...please keep in mind that she's right...and when you take her comments and attempt to defend the state as being somehow victimized by Hillary's comments, PLEASE keep in mind the women of my state, who are SUFFERING for the very reasons that Hillary mentioned.

[CarolNYC]

12. Hillary received warmly at J-J-H Dinner

Hillary Clinton Receives Surprisingly Warm Reception In Mississippi

Sen. Hillary Clinton received a surprisingly warm reception in her first campaign visit to Mississippi since her primary victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island. She spoke at the 26th Annual Jefferson-Jackson-Hamer Day Dinner at the Canton Multipurpose & Equine Center in Canton, Mississippi on Thursday night.

In her speech which was live streamed by Jackson television station WJTV she sounded confident and upbeat. She acknowledged that the Obama campaign has strong support in the state but emphasized that if she is elected she plans to do a lot for Mississippi. She talked a lot about the common problems that Arkansas and Mississippi have faced and told of her work in Arkansas to bring about better education and healthcare.

She received several standing ovations in her speech and the audience joined her in an Obama-like chant of “Yes we will! Yes we will! at the end.

http://bluesunbelt.com/?p=238

[rodeodance]

15. good comment on this thread;

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject I'm thrilled she had a good night!!
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4949188#4950803
4950803, I'm thrilled she had a good night!!
Posted by dbaker41 on Fri Mar-07-08 01:05 PM

The news coverage was very very positive. Good event. Plus, Bill is all over the state this week, and there's a lot of buzz about the campaign.

Go Hillary!!

[rodeodance]

16. 24. The TV station has vids of the townhall and the news report here:

wlucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Mar-07-08 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
24. The TV station has vids of the townhall and the news report here:

Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 12:23 PM by wlucinda
http://www.wjtv.com/gulfcoastwest/jtv/news.html

[rodeodance]

13. Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Hillary speaking live at a town meeting in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4947423#4947423
4947423, Hillary speaking live at a town meeting in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.
Posted by TacticalPeek on Fri Mar-07-08 10:46 AM

http://www.wjtv.com/gulfcoastwest/jtv/news/video/live_streaming.html

She was a hit at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer dinner in Canton last night.

:kick:
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4947423#4947423
4947423, Hillary speaking live at a town meeting in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.
Posted by TacticalPeek on Fri Mar-07-08 10:46 AM

http://www.wjtv.com/gulfcoastwest/jtv/news/video/live_streaming.html

She was a hit at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer dinner in Canton last night.

:kick:

[rodeodance]

17. "She was a hit at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer dinner in Canton last night."

[rodeodance]

18. Mississippi: Obama 46, Hillary 40. Both lead 4:1 with their color, lose their gender

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Mississippi: Obama 46, Hillary 40. Both lead 4:1 with their color, lose their gender
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4962640#4962640
4962640, Mississippi: Obama 46, Hillary 40. Both lead 4:1 with their color, lose their gender
Posted by jackson_dem on Fri Mar-07-08 11:25 PM

The racial voting is disappointing.

Overall: 0 46, H 40
Blacks: O 67, H 16
Whites: H 72, O 18

Curiously Clinton leads by 5 among men but Obama leads women by 15. The opposite is usually true. Similarly Obama almost always wins the rethug vote and indie vote, and usually by lopsided margins, but here Clinton dominates among both while Obama leads by 17 among Democrats, a group who usually loses. However, much of this can be explained by the racial overlap in party identification in the South. The few places Hill has beaten Obama among rethugs have mostly been in the South. Obama's alleged "crossover appeal" apparently dissappeared overnight on 3/3. What really happened is he never had it. Much of the rethug and indie vote he attracted was from folks trying to beat the strongest Democratic candidate, Clinton. It was in the rethug interest to vote for Obama from Iowa to Wisconsin. With Hill on the ropes, though, it makes sense for rethugs to vote for Clinton to keep the race going to April 22 and hence the switch of about 20-25% of rethugs and indies to the Clinton camp, although Obama still won both groups on 3/4. PA is thankfully a closed primary but except the rethugs to be back in Obama's corner in full force in May.

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_37_265.aspx

[rodeodance]

20. Well you will be unpleasantly suprised then when Obama wins by twenty.

i am nasty---i am saving this so i can send it to him on Tues.
!!




Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Well you will be unpleasantly suprised then when Obama wins by twenty.
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4958733#4958964
4958964, Well you will be unpleasantly suprised then when Obama wins by twenty.
Posted by hnmnf on Fri Mar-07-08 07:37 PM

[rodeodance]

19. Bill Stumps For Hillary On Battered Coast

Forum Name Latest Breaking News
Topic subject Bill Stumps For Hillary On Battered Coast
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3216656#3216656
3216656, Bill Stumps For Hillary On Battered Coast
Posted by TacticalPeek on Sat Mar-08-08 08:48 PM

Source: AP

PASS CHRISTIAN, Miss. -- Former President Bill Clinton highlighted his wife's support for reforming national flood insurance and for rebuilding wetlands during a visit to Pass Christian.

The town was nearly wiped off the map by Hurricane Katrina and Clinton spoke there as he campaigned ahead of next week's Democratic presidential primary in Mississippi.
...

He reminded the audience at a high school that he and former President George H.W. Bush raised millions of dollars for Mississippi after the storm on Aug. 29, 2005.

Bill Clinton said George W. Bush's administration's response to the hurricane sent a message that "cronyism is more important than competence."

He was referring to the slow response under former Federal Emergency Management Agency director Michael Brown.


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/15543118/detail.html

[rodeodance]

21. Mississippi Primary Unlikely to Boost Obama Significantly--March 10* Hillary

and Bill have been there--I just hope they hold Obama to under 60% as that would be a decrease from WY. It will be a psychological boost for Hillary I think.



Mississippi Primary Unlikely to Boost Obama Significantly

Even a big win won't provide much more distance between him and Clinton
By Kenneth T. Walsh
Posted March 10, 2008


If the conventional wisdom is correct, Barack Obama will be celebrating another victory in a southern primary Tuesday night.

Obama leads Hillary Clinton in Mississippi's Democratic presidential contest by 58 percent to 34 percent, according to the latest American Research Group survey of likely voters. If he wins solidly, as expected, Obama will collect a majority of the 33 delegates at stake, but Clinton will garner a healthy share because the delegate allocation will be proportional, not winner take all.

So the pattern of the Democratic race won't change, with neither candidate able to mount a decisive surge week to week. Obama had 1,578 delegates to Clinton's 1,468 on Monday, according to the Associated Press. It will take 2,025 to win the nomination.

...

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/03/10/mississippi-primary-unlikely-to-boost-obama-significantly.html