sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:28 PM
Original message |
Hillary is done, so is Guliani, Edwards is very much alive and Obama is the winner of the first bout |
|
That's pretty much my sypnosis of the Iowa Caucases, anyone else have a comment to make.
|
book_worm
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:29 PM
Response to Original message |
1. I wouldn't rule Hillary out just yet |
|
Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 04:30 PM by book_worm
but she does need to win NH, I think. Edwards has to do well in Nevada and win SC.
|
Forkboy
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:30 PM
Response to Original message |
2. I think ruling Hillary out is a fool's game. |
HiFructosePronSyrup
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:30 PM
Response to Original message |
3. I think that's about right. |
|
I think Hillary's still standing, but her knees are shaking.
|
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:32 PM
Original message |
Well third place is the boobie prize in the caucas |
|
Pretty much the kiss of death, if you don't believe me go ask John Edwards.
|
HiFructosePronSyrup
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:39 PM
Response to Original message |
14. Especially if you were up 29 points two months ago. |
|
No reason to ask John Edwards, look at Joe Lieberman.
But that said, never underestimate the power of a gaffe.
|
SteppingRazor
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message |
4. Hillary's done?! I definitely have to disagree with that part. |
|
The most recent polls still have her in the lead in NH. Sure, Obama will get a bounce, but that doesn't mean he's got NH locked up. Given the amount of cash and time he put in Iowa, I'd say Edwards will have more problems going on from here than Hillary will.
I agree that Giuliani's probably done -- as are Thompson and Paul.
I think this comes down to Obama or Clinton and Huckabee, McCain or Romney.
|
Cessna Invesco Palin
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message |
5. Hillary is far from done. |
|
I think anyone who believes that Iowa was the end of the game for her hasn't been paying attention. She WILL fight - and hard. Edwards is fucking toast. He's been campaigning in Iowa since I was in goddamn diapers. If he can't win in Iowa, he can't win anywhere. He's dead in NH, flatlined in SC, and doesn't have the organization or money to take him through super tuesday.
|
Va Lefty
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:33 PM
Response to Original message |
|
Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 04:34 PM by Va Lefty
but I think it is a huge mistake to count out Hillary. The Clintons have never been one to back out of a fight and they have a lot of money. If Hillary can finish at least 2nd in NH she will be a factor until at least "Super Tuesday".
|
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
9. But she was the unstoppable juggernaut that was destined for the whitehouse |
|
And now she sits with the boobie prize in Iowa this morning wondering what they'll do next.
|
Va Lefty
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
16. I agree she got knocked down |
|
but the winner hardly ever comes out of Iowa. Money and her organization should not be counted out. That being said Obama is now the front runner and odds on choice to win the nomination.
|
kimmerspixelated
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:36 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
32. But, I'm sorry to say, |
|
that she has a "failure is not an option" attitude about her...if you get my drift.
|
Ice4Clark
(466 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:35 PM
Response to Original message |
7. I was thinking about Bill Clinton's run in 1992 |
|
I don't believe he even campaigned in IA for the 1992 nomination because of Harkin. I also think he lost NH. He still won the nomination without these two primaries. So, I don't think Hill is done by a long shot. my thoughts.......
|
mrreowwr_kittty
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
15. I don't see a parallel between her run and Bill's |
|
She should have done MUCH better in IA than she did. She is a mega-celebrity, not an unknown Arkansas Governor.
I also don't think she's out of the game, though.
|
AndyA
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:36 PM
Response to Original message |
8. I think it's too early to cast Hillary aside. |
|
Ghouliani, yes. He's toast.
I honestly don't think McCain has much of a chance, but some seem to think he might.
Hillary is a smart lady, I will give her credit for that, and I'll bet she has a few things waiting in the wings still.
And Huckelberry is as big a hypocrite as any Republican. Talking about how America wants change. Yes, Gomer, America DOES want change. Change away from people like YOU. Change from the Republican/Evangelical hold that has crippled this nation during the Bush years.
Republicans are nothing if they are not hypocrites.
|
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
AndyA
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
22. But was she really unstoppable? Who said? The M$M? |
|
We know they have an agenda, and it's to shine the best light possible on the GOP, and make Dems look as bad as possible. Hillary is a lightening rod for Republicans, they really hate her. Nothing like Hillary on the ticket will get GOPers out and voting. They have a weak lineup, so they have to hope that something on the Dem side will create enough fear to get them out voting for the lousy candidate they put forth.
Hillary is the gal that can do that.
|
RL3AO
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:36 PM
Response to Original message |
10. Uh oh. Hill plays the fear card. |
|
Someone is getting desperate.
|
cali
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:36 PM
Response to Original message |
11. yep. Clinton is still very much alive |
|
Edwards is on his last legs- if he doesn't win or place a close second in NH, he's done. And Obama has a heck of a lot of momentum. Clinton has money and organization and is still polling well ahead nationally. Obama has money and organization, plus excitement and buzz. In NH, Edwards is way back in the polls and I don't see how he gets a bump when he really didn't beat Clinton so much as tie her. In SC, Edwards is even further back, and if Obama beats Clinton in NH, he'll be a strong favorite in SC.
If Edwards couldn't win IA, it's hard to see how he can win any other state.
|
ccpup
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:37 PM
Response to Original message |
|
if you think one State decides everything and Hillary is out, you're either a political neophyte or unrealistically delusional.
Bill lost the first FIVE States in 1992 before winning Georgia and locking up the Nomination on Super Tuesday, so counting a Clinton out this early in the game while Obama runs his premature Victory Lap is not the wisest thing to do.
Which is, of course, what I hope Obama and his Advisers are doing. :evilgrin:
|
mondo joe
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message |
17. Those are pretty massive conclusions to draw from Iowa. I don't see how |
|
you can draw any of those conclusions in a meaningful way from just Iowa.
|
pnwmom
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
29. They sure are. Especially since she still has a massive lead in delegates, |
mondo joe
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #29 |
31. I guess it's human nature, but I find people drawing extreme conclusions from just |
|
the Iowa Caucuses. Ofcourse Chris Matthews was the nuttiest.
|
pnwmom
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
35. And if what he says isn't always bad enough |
|
he has that awful, awful, VOICE!
|
peoli
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message |
18. Obama will be the president |
|
take it to the bank. Eveyone else is over.
|
whatdoyouthink
(295 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
|
But One State - IS not a lock
I think this will go to at least Super Tue (30/30/30 Plus or Minus Top to Bottom)
A) would be a Shame - if one state - can call it
B) I've not heard The LADY Sing
C) Edwards has not Surrendered
D) or None of the Above
|
ronnykmarshall
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:46 PM
Response to Original message |
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
ronnykmarshall
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
|
There is no way that Hillary's toast. Sorry to be so blunt, I didn't mean to be so shitty .... but I'm tired of this whole Iowa votes ... America follows bullshit.
|
pinto
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:49 PM
Response to Original message |
20. It's a ways to go, yet. Buckle up. |
tritsofme
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:50 PM
Response to Original message |
21. I couldn't disagree more, with both sentiments. |
|
Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 04:52 PM by tritsofme
So far fewer people have cast ballots than there probably are people within a five mile radius of the office I'm typing this from.
Guiliani "skipped" Iowa and did not compete, his path to GOP nomination is a "big state" strategy, where he wins big delegate rich states like NY, NJ, IL, FL, CA ect and then wins the nomination.
Hillary is sitting on a pile of money and will not go down without a strong fight.
This isn't the end, its the beginning of the beginning.
|
theboss
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 04:58 PM
Response to Original message |
23. Hillary is bleeding but still ok...Guiliani is fine...Where does Edwards go from here? |
|
Hillary is hurt by finishing third, but there are still a lot of states that she can win. However, she has lost her chief strength which is the air of inevitability.
Guiliani is fine. He made a smart move by removing himself from Iowa. If he had campaigned at all and done that poorly, he would be in trouble.
Edwards' problem in 2008 is Edwards' problem from 2004. He can never get into a two-man race that he can win. He gets stuck in these three and four-person races where he inevitably finishes 2nd. He needs to actually win a state one of these days, and I honestly don't know what state that will be. He is the Ernie Els of Democratic Politics.
Romney is staggering as badly as Hillary but is still in it.
Thompson, I think, is done.
Honestly, McCain is the big winner in my view. The establishment Republicans need to make a stand against Huckabee and the Evangelicals. Romney was their guy, but he is not playing well right now. Thompson is not interested. And McCain is there ready to be whatever they want him to be.
Huckabee has a chance to be the McGovern on 2008 in that for Establishment Republicans, he is more dangerous than any Democrat. If Huckabee gets the nod, he might rebuild the Party into something unrecognizable to the Cheneys and Roves and Limbaughs and Wills and National Reviews of the world.
|
fuzzy otter pop
(266 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:13 PM
Response to Original message |
|
get used to it. focus on picking a candidate that represents you and can win.
|
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
pnwmom
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message |
28. Hillary still has a strong lead in actual delegates, despite losing in Iowa. |
|
So I wouldn't count her out yet.
|
PervezClinton
(123 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 06:00 PM
Response to Original message |
33. That sounds about right to me. |
Occam Bandage
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 06:02 PM
Response to Original message |
34. Hillary is far from done. Giuliani depends on who wins NH and SC. Stick a fork in Edwards. |
BooScout
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 08:00 PM
Response to Original message |
sasquatch
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-04-08 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
37. That's more of a question than a comment |
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Sat Jun 15th 2024, 05:47 PM
Response to Original message |