Chris Cillizza: President Obama’s base of support remains solid heading into 2012

[alp227]

Everyone knows that President Obama has a problem with his political base heading into 2012. Except that he doesn’t.

One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied with his actions (or inaction) on some of its priorities — including single-payer health insurance, the extension of the George W. Bush tax cuts and whether to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

(...)

“There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s reelection chances: Nobody has a more solid 44 percent base than he does,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart wrote in a not-entirely-uncritical memo assessing the state of political affairs a year out from the election.

As evidence, Hart noted that in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama takes 44 percent in a three-way race with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) running as an independent; has a 44 percent job approval rating; and has a 45 percent positive personal rating. In the same survey, 45 percent said they “probably” will vote for Obama in 2012.

full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/president-obamas-base-of-support-remains-solid-heading-into-2012/2011/11/20/gIQAj7K5fN_story.html

[SidDithers]

1. K&R. Facts are good...nt

Sid

[Tx4obama]

2. K&R :) n/t

[Number23]

3. That first line says it all

Everyone knows that President Obama has a problem with his political base heading into 2012. Except that he doesn’t.

Of course this will be ignored, drowned out, minimized, and flat out dismissed by those determined to ignore, drown out, minimize and dismiss this president.

But facts is facts. And it's great to see them here to counteract the non-stop squeals from those desperately trying to prove that they are some type of a majority. Somewhere. About something.

[Vattel]

30. Enough with the paranoia.

Most liberals will vote for Obama. Big surprise. Do a poll of DUers and you'll be lucky to get one person who denies that.

[TheWraith]

32. It's not about just voting. The vast majority of liberals approve of Obama's job performance.

But you'll be lucky to find practically anyone in the blogosphere who will admit that.

[Vattel]

35. It's such a silly thing to argue about, don't you think?

Polls suggest that the vast majority of those who describe themselves as liberals at least somewhat approve of Obama's performance. BFD. Who cares? Why should anyone care?

[Number23]

36. Many of us don't care

But there are large numbers of "liberals" who have spent a considerable amount of time (and some have made a considerable amount of money) claiming that no "REAL" liberal could support this president.

So until those folks stop spouting, the rest of us will just keep informing them that they have no idea what the hell they are talking about.

[Vattel]

40. "real liberal" and "support" are very vague expressions,

and that's why you will get even people who do know what the hell they are talking about disagreeing with you about whether a real liberal could support Obama. I avoid semantic debates of that sort like the plague.

[Arctic Dave]

4. All is good! Remain calm! Don't panic! Ignore the man behind the curtain!

Yawn.

[Scurrilous]

5. K & R

:thumbsup:

[roguevalley]

6. who are they going to vote for? If he had a primary challenger

of any stature he would find out how much support he had.

[Skittles]

7. CORRECT

but the corporatists would NEVER allow that

[Number23]

8. Don't you think the lack of primary challenger speaks to his support more than just about

anything else? If he wasn't supported by vast margins of Democrats, err.... wouldn't they have gotten someone else??

[alp227]

9. The 1980 primary was nearly split between Carter and Kennedy...

then Carter would lose to Reagan and we all know where US history went from there.

[SkyDaddy7]

12. EXACTLY!

Democrats have not yet learned what the Republicans have known for the past +30yrs that sticking together & taking small political gains when you can is the best path to get what you want in American Politics...Instead many in the Democratic Party CRY CRY CRY when they don't get EVERYTHING they want and they would rather stand on what they call "principal" & not get anything done for the working class & minority's rights instead of doing what is needed to get what they can.

Another example of this was in 2000 when many of the same Democrats decided to "send a message or punish" the Democrats/Al Gore by voting for Nader...The damage caused in 1980 was bad & long lasting but nothing compared to the damage done due to the 2000 "Protest Vote"...When will these Democrats learn change takes time & it takes having a political backbone! Having a "political backbone" does not mean committing political suicide by trying to destroy your own party after just 4yrs in office...Having a "Political Backbone" means being able to stick together for the long term in order to get what you want over time!

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. +1

:applause:

[TheKentuckian]

23. The small advances come with a hefty price tag of getting stuck with what I directly oppose.

Made worse by the small advances themselves being often rigged up with Trojan poison pills to create a great deal of entropy.

It is most certainly what has been done than what wasn't accomplished that draws my ire. The assimilation of lots of traditional conservative ideology and methodology isn't endearing either.

I also don't think, as a coalition, we are honest with ourselves. The first and maybe most fundamental is that we are a coalition rather than one group with the normal disagreements on strategies, tactics, and methodology on how to reach common goals.
Just openly accepting the reality would be a healing process. While it can't be expected to resolve the disagreements, it would go a long way in how the debate is processed and consequentially handled by the participants and take some of the toxic but essentially inherent questioning of motives out of most of the dialog.

We have a freewheeling range of ideologies spanning from thinking the Republicans are generally correct but are varying reasons incompetent and kinda loopy to at least socialists with folks that can range from rigged top down authoritarian all the way to the fence of anarchy on civil liberties that cross all the points on the other axis.

It is a very, very complex assortment of world views and ideologies to even pretend we have blended into one political organism. Just the little shift from playing one with a constant war in the background to a conscience acceptance of a from many we are one.
I also think that there can only be so much division and arrive at a tolerable direction, much less a destination. From a strictly ideological standpoint, those that generally feel the Republicans are correct on structural issues and the role of government should be putting their own house in order to create the ability to have reasoned debate on the governing of our country even with a more honest internal assessment of what Democrats actually are.

Sometimes the outrage isn't about how much but what's and how's that logically exclude or severely limit outcomes being sought by others in the coalition.
No one wants to be stuck with what they oppose.

There is a world of difference between as far and the correct direction. Sometimes I'm left despondent not because we only got 800 miles down the road. Hell, I didn't expect to get half that far in one hop. My problem is I'm trying to go in the opposite direction and had taken many trials and heartbreaks to get where we are now to end up further away again.

[roguevalley]

15. no. most sitting dems don't get primaried even when they deserve it.

[Number23]

17. I think the president's 70% approval amongst liberals,

80% approval amongst Democrats, and 90% approval among blacks proves that he most definitely deserves the party's nomination.

And he will get it.

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. Only one thing I'd change about the article:

One turn of a phrase makes all the difference, and we all know how perception can sometimes become reality. Chris speaks to this false reality dreamed up by the president's critics. Would have been nice had Cilliza pointed out the culprit of this perception problem.

"One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied......"

Should read......

"One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the professional left has falsely reported that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied......."

;)

[Enrique]

11. yes, Chris Cilliza is the only source we can trust

the whole MSM is out to get Obama and make him look bad, with the sole exception of Chris Cilliza. :sarcasm:

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[roguevalley]

16. any slagging of the left is bs.

[AtomicKitten]

24. That is a pertinent distinction.

The president's political demise has been grossly exaggerated.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. He's getting reelected

It will be a relatively close election, but he'll win, the other side just doesn't have anyone who can challenge him.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. Only one caveat I would add, and that is "if all the votes are counted".

We know many jurisdictions have been busy since the midterms trying to turn back voter rights, and where they've been successful, we know it will impact the president's base more than anyone else. But I certainly agree that if all the votes are counted, he will win. :hi:

[coalition_unwilling]

26. I actually think Obama will win in a landslide of LBJ proportions (albeit

without my vote), given that all the Repukes are disgusting, crazy or both.

[Obamakarma]

20. Obama's Base Is Pretty Solid

Chris Cillizza is spot on in his piece for W Post today. I have been waiting for someone to puncture this false media narrative that Obama's foundation is somehow rocky. Regardless of the very difficult economy and the near inability to govern given the inflexibility of the current generation of Republicans, his numbers have remained pretty firm. As a base from which to build on with an entire election year ahead of him, 44% looks pretty good to me...

[center rising]

21. Of course it's solid because

Where the hell else are liberals and Democrats going to go??

[Skittles]

31. CORRECT

[and-justice-for-all]

22. K&R...but do not be complacent.nt

[BlueIris]

25. If they want to gamble on this fiction, fine.

I am cringing in anticipation of the results.

[AtomicKitten]

27. Fiction? Pfft. Hardly.

----> Obama outpaces GOP rivals — and his own 2008 results — in small donations
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-outpaces-gop-rivals-and-his-own-2008-results-in-small-donations/2011/11/04/gIQANhTJWN_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

His imminent political demise has been grossly exaggerated by an opportunistic few who lob potshots like "fiction!!omg!!!elevens!!" - reminiscent of HClinton proclaiming that Obama just can't win.

[Number23]

28. These facts have been posted over and over and over and over and over and over again

At this point, it is PAINFULLY obvious that many here refuse to accept the reality(ies) of the situation. Which is that:

Obama enjoys strong liberal support
The number of Dems that want Obama primaried is minimal and is significantly lower than the number that wanted Clinton primaried
Obama has been raising money hand over fist from ORDINARY Americans
His support is weakest amongst Repubs and independents because they view him as TOO LIBERAL. Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of this president.
His support amongst blacks (the most loyal and among the most powerful block of Dem voters) has never dipped below 85% which is staggering.

I mean, if any of this is news to someone or something they are unwilling to accept, they need to be branded with a scarlet "D" for denial and summarily ignored.

[NorthCarolina]

29. The only thing keeping Obama propped up is fear of the wacko GOP candidates.

If a viable populist arrived on the scene, much of Obama's support would evaporate in a heart beat.

[Tarheel_Dem]

33. "The only thing keeping Obama propped up is fear of the wacko GOP candidates."

:spray:

No one's gonna arrive, and there's a good reason for it. ;) However, here's the "viable populist" alternative to save us all from the mean old Obama! :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x807942

And good luck to you! :rofl:

[Number23]

34. I'm sure that if Jesus popped up on the ballot, Obama's support would evaporate even faster

But since neither of these things have a chance of happening, exactly what is your point?

You and others in your zeal to tout this imaginary, all purpose "super liberal" challenger to the president always overlook one thing -- NONE HAVE CHOSEN TO RUN. Many of us believe that the president's strong support from every single block of the Democratic base is the reason for the lack of challenger.

Now, you are free to believe whatever it is that you wish. But for many of us, the lack of a serious "left" challenger to this president really says all that anyone needs to know about how Democrats, liberals, leftists and left-leaning moderates feel about this president.

[Anatos]

38. Now if only

there were such a thing as a "viable populist". The only thing keeping Obama afloat is his statesmanlike demeanor, his huge personal popularity, is incredibly apt foreign policy, and Republican obstructionism. If not for those things, he'd be toast, I'm sure.

[SadPanda]

37. Who other than Obama are we going to vote for? Gingrich? Perry? Romney? Cain, lol, haha?????

The reality is that the Republicans strategy from day 1 of the Obama Administration has been to divide and conquer. Now we punish them for that strategy.

[lynne]

39. That's great! However, the base alone can't elect any president -

- as you also need a good chunk of the independent vote to win an election.

While the base being solid is good, it's worthless without having the independents on board to seal the deal.