Ezra Klein: The incredible deal Republicans have accidentally offered the Democrats

[Pirate Smile]

Wonkbook: The GOP's dual-trigger nightmare

by Ezra Klein

Imagine if the Democrats offered Republicans a deficit deal that had more than $3 in tax increases for every $1 in spending cuts, assigned most of those spending cuts to the Pentagon, and didn't take a dime from Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare beneficiaries. Republicans would laugh at them. But without quite realizing it, that's the deal Republicans have now offered to the Democrats.

In August, Republicans scored what they thought was a big win by persuading Democrats to accept a trigger that consisted only of spending cuts. The price they paid was 1) concentrating the cuts on the Pentagon while exempting Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare beneficiaries, and 2) delaying the cuts until January 1, 2013. That was, they figured, a win, as it eschewed taxes. Grover Norquist's pledge remained unbroken.
But 12 years earlier, George W. Bush had set a trigger of his own. In order to pass his tax cuts using the 51-vote budget reconciliation process, he had agreed to let them sunset in 2010. A last-minute deal extended them until the end of 2012.

So now there are two triggers. One is an extremely progressive spending trigger worth $1.2 trillion that goes off on January 1, 2013. The other is an extremely progressive tax trigger worth $3.8 trillion that goes off on...January 1, 2013. If you count reduced interest payments, the two policies alone would reduce future deficits by about $6 trillion. That's far more than anything the supercommittee came close to discussing. It's distributed far more progressively than anything the Democrats have even considered proposing. And all that needs to happen for it to pass is, well, nothing.

Republicans can't stop these triggers on their own. They need Senate Democrats and President Obama to join them in passing an alternative, or they need House and Senate Democrats to join them in overturning President Obama's veto of their alternative. So the only way for Republicans to avoid this dual-trigger nightmare is to somehow convince Democrats to bail them out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-the-gops-dual-trigger-nightmare/2011/11/23/gIQA1BmxnN_blog.html

[babylonsister]

1. Love it-rec'd! nt

[DevonRex]

2. That's exactly what happened. Thanks. Nt

[dkf]

3. Which is why I kept asking why we were talking about taxing the top 1% when there is a lot more in

The sunset of the Bush cuts.

All that fighting was lame. Doing nothing is the best result.

[ProSense]

10. Here's

"Which is why I kept asking why we were talking about taxing the top 1% when there is a lot more in"

...the reason.

[Beavker]

50. The Bush cuts were supposed to be temporary

We should have been done with those last year, and given the current situation we should be now talking about the 1% or a transaction tax to put us over the hump.

If the cuts were allowed to expire, we may not have even got to this pathetic point.

[PatrynXX]

61. which is why

the deficit skyrocketed. obama blinked. he really shouldn't have

[scuciti]

74. Believe it when I see it.

Exactly. Besides, I am afraid that Obama will start negotiating with himself and by the time this kicks in he will have thrown social security and medicare cuts into the deal, taken out 75% of the defense cuts and extended the bush tax cuts another 3 years. I voted for him and donated to him and really and truly believed in Obama at one time but as a progressive I am now very jaded.

[lunatica]

101. So you joined so you could throw Obama under the bus before he does anything?

Enjoy your stay.

[Vincardog]

86. We should be now talking about the 1% AND a transaction tax to put us over the hump by a lot

a 1% financial TRANSACTION TAX would raise A lot OF MONEY.
It would also curb a lot of the wall street abuses we see,
which is why the GOP will oppose it at every turn.
It is also why you won't see any "serious" Democrats proposing it.

[lunatica]

102. Keep kicking your heels

and having a tantrum. It's so becoming.

[Exultant Democracy]

4. "Republicans can't stop these triggers on their own." They will have plenty of democratic help

no way the blue dogs don't go over on defense spending and the bush tax cuts.

[Life Long Dem]

7. And then Obama veto's any bill.

[Exultant Democracy]

34. Not if it is the same Obama who has been president for the last 3 years.

[Life Long Dem]

35. Compromising is compromising.

Veto's are veto's. Two different animals.

[Exultant Democracy]

36. Well we will find out after the election, triggered spending don't cuts kick until 2013

I guess we will have to wait an see, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Life Long Dem]

39. Yeah

The sky falling remains to be seen.

[robinlynne]

43. We saw it already. These are now the Obama tax cuts.

[fascisthunter]

47. there is history of Obama's actions that lend doubt to your quip

[Tarheel_Dem]

64. And the millions who got their unemployment extended "lends doubt" to your snark.

The president's critics on the left and the right can't accept that they were played. :hi:

[TheKentuckian]

83. We traded two years at 750 billion for one year at 65 billion and you think someone else got played?

That is some pretty hellish interest when you can't get revenues.

[Tarheel_Dem]

90. Deal with it!

:rofl:

[TheKentuckian]

97. We all will for decades in various unpleasant ways.

Its hilarious! Hardy har har!

[Life Long Dem]

96. Really.

Some think the sky has fallen when millions continued to receive their unemployment checks. Arguing with some here is like arguing with the Fox News team.

[truedelphi]

69. There are people who compromise in a manner

That gets a better deal. And then there is Obama, who just as portrayed in that one political cartoon, is throwing in the poker hand before the dealer has even finished.

[SharksBreath]

79. In the 2010 budget negotiations he could have told the Democratic Congress.

Yeah. It was still a Democratic Congress that he would veto any bill that had the Bush tax cuts in it.

He didn't. The Congress could have fought the battle over the Bush tax cuts before the 2010 elections.

They didn't.

Like most here. I'll believe it when I see it.

Never in a million years would I have thought a Democratic Congress would let the GOP put a gun to their head and pass the Bush tax cuts.

If at anytime Obama should have shut the government down it was then.

Because he didn't the Republicans put another gun to the Dems head over the Debt ceiling.

He's in campaign mode now which means you can't believe a damn word he says.

[DCBob]

16. New legislation will have to be written and passed in both chambers and signed by the POTUS.

This new legislation will have be considered something better by both sides and the President than what is already in the trigger. That is very very unlikely in our current political climate. The path of least resistance is what most likely will happen.

[Pirate Smile]

17. Doing nothing is this Congress' fall back position on everything -

mainly because Republicans view any compromise as evil.

[DCBob]

18. Yes, the path of least resistance is most likely.... ie "do nothing".

which in this case is the best thing to do. Congress will have finally gotten it right by "doing nothing"! I suspect their poll numbers might even go up.

[Historic NY]

55. Well then we should just primary them........shouldn't we.

[harmonicon]

78. You beat me to it.

I find the entire premise of the article to be completely silly. Those tax cuts should have expired, and they would have if it weren't for Democrats voting to extend them. I see no reason why it will be any different in a year.

I wouldn't just blame blue dogs - I think it's probably most dems.

[Enrique]

5. sorry, I stopped believing in ponies

when this doesn't come about this way, anyone who believed it would will be castigated as being unrealistic, including by Ezra Klein. They'll explain to us why we "can't" cut defense, and why tax increases are "impossible".

So here, I'm being realistic, just like the Obama fans wants me to be. This is bullshit.

[Exultant Democracy]

6. If it is too good to be true...

[jefferson_dem]

9. Dismss imaginary ponies, which are bullshit. But definiltely take a real life one when it's offered.

Viva la difference.

[Pirate Smile]

13. I think the more realistic outcome is some sort of tax reform. Republicans think they are going to

win the White House, Senate & House so they can write everything exactly how they want - slash taxes and decimate Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.

The main point is that Democrats have a lot more leverage then normal - and they should use it.

The Republican idea that, while we have such a massive deficit & debt, any tax reform needs to be "neutral", as in doesn't raise more revenue then we already raise now, is insane. Dems should insist any tax reform be progressive AND raise a lot more revenue.

I think it really means nothing will happen until after the 2012 election.

The defense cuts battle is going to be very interesting. Republicans will show how empty all their words are about cutting spending. They really don't care at all. It is only helpful as an excuse to kill off social welfare programs. We all know that. Some Dems in Congress are likely to be a big problem - like they were with Gitmo.

Realistic is fine with me.

I thought it was an interesting point that if we do nothing, that means there is $6 trillion right there.

[quiller4]

59. Not very many Rs still think they have a chance at the Senate

and some are seriously swetting losing the House yet again.

The timing of the triggers is key. They go into effect before the inauguration either of a re-elected Obama (likely) or a newly elected Republican (significantly less likely).

[alcibiades_mystery]

48. People like you believed the Supercommittee was a scheme to cut social security

So, which is it?

Apparently, you've been wrong before.

So, really, which is it?

[rury]

8. Oh, yeah! The GOP clowns have painted themselves into

a corner!!

[DCBob]

11. So is Outrage Brigade convinced yet??

somehow I doubt it.

[Hutzpa]

12. Not when you have some refusing to believe the article

if this had come from the republican talking point I believe some here would have jumped
on it saying "you see, we knew Obama is/was yada yada yada....."

Feel sorry for Obama having to deal with disgruntle SOB's within the democratic party.

[DCBob]

14. So Ezra is now on their shit list...

maybe they will put him on ignore.

[Hutzpa]

15. I won't put it pass them

if that's what their pea brain call for, sure without a doubt....:rofl:

[Number23]

40. "Feel sorry for Obama having to deal with disgruntle SOB's within the democratic party."

You say "disgruntled." I say "demented" and "disturbed."

[Tarheel_Dem]

65. All those "d's" sound like possible symptoms of ODS. I wonder if the CDC has classified it yet?

;)

[freshwest]

33. Has M$M quit shilling for the GOP? Of course not, look at the great results they get.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Awesome

I know a lot is likely to happen between now and then, but I'd be totally fine with this deficit reduction outcome and personally would be willing to pay a little more to help my Country.

I mean, wow, was this shrewd negotiations or what though? The best thing that could happen for our country would be for Congress to do nothing.

[Nordmadr]

20. ...an interesting related article...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/CutYourTaxes/what-if-the-bush-tax-cuts-expired.aspx

[SkyDaddy7]

21. NOT TRUE!!!

Folks on DU have declared the deal with triggers was another failure for Obama...And they said the Republicans were playing chess while Obama was playing checkers...So, FACTS BE DAMNED DU has spoken!!

This article should be on the Greatest Threads page but I guess that is reserved for Obama bashing articles only.

[Vattel]

24. Um, where is the success story here?

600 billion in cuts to domestic spending in a terrible economy? Yay Obama! 600 billion in cuts to defense? Great, but Obama doesn't want that. Letting the Bush tax cuts expire means, of course, that the middle class tax cuts go away with the tax cuts on the wealthy. I'm actually sympathetic to the idea that that would be a good thing, but it's not what Obama wants.

[DCBob]

26. maybe you didnt read this part:

"Imagine if the Democrats offered Republicans a deficit deal that had more than $3 in tax increases for every $1 in spending cuts, assigned most of those spending cuts to the Pentagon, and didn't take a dime from Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare beneficiaries. Republicans would laugh at them. But without quite realizing it, that's the deal Republicans have now offered to the Democrats."

[Vattel]

28. How are the Republicans offering to let the Bush tax cuts expire?

[DCBob]

30. I dont think they are. We will see how this all plays out..

but I think the Democrats hold the best cards now and if played right it could be a nice outcome.

[quaker bill]

49. They expire on their own

The Republicans inability to compromise and work a deal is the offer and the only one needed.

[Vattel]

75. That's my point. They will expire on their own.

That is a good thing, of course. The question is whether we should be celebrating if it turns out that the automatic cuts become a reality. I'm all for cutting defense, but not for cutting 600 billion from domestic spending.

[quaker bill]

98. The point is not the cuts

as they will only begin after the election. The point is and always was to take this question to the people. The only way this does not get fixed is of people decide on divided government again in 2012. The point always was to make this issue very clear.

If the people pick republicans, it will get fixed, defense spending will be back, tax cuts will remain, and the only path to balance will be to slice domestic spending to almost nothing and hit current beneficiaries of the social programs.

If the people pick democrats, it will get fixed, defense will ramp down, some domestic spending will be cut, taxes will increase on the 1 to 2 percent at the top, and current benefits will be protected.

If they pick a mix, the quagmire continues, tax cuts expire and the automatic cuts take their toll.

The people get to pick.

[formercia]

32. Tax cuts only concern people who have to pay Taxes.

Like people who have a job. Tax cuts mean nothing to the unemployed.

[SkyDaddy7]

93. No, that is what you want Obama to be, nothing more. Nt.

[DCBob]

25. So much more thrilling for them to bash the President.

I think they are addicted to it.

[Tarheel_Dem]

66. ODS is a real & crippling disease.

:hi:

[SkyDaddy7]

94. ADDICTED TO BASHING OBAMA...SO TRUE! Nt.

[Historic NY]

56. +1

[Harmony Blue]

22. Very encouraging news

Lets hope the pressure is kept up.

[The Magistrate]

23. If Played Right, Ma'am, This Could Indeed Turn Out Very well

[tblue37]

27. knr

[ieoeja]

29. Bad things keep happening to pols who take on the MIC.

Two Kennedys died. Carter's presidency was sabotaged.

If I was a pol, I would be very careful about taking on the MIC. One way I could imagine doing it is creating a trigger that would seriously deplete the MIC budget then work tirelessly to stop that trigger from happening, but make certain both sides had something that they absolutely, positively could never, ever agree upon.

I have been seriously wondering about this ever since the trigger went into place.

A Union general with the Army of the Potomac confided to an anti-war Senator that McClellan and his generals were just manuvering their army around in an effort to avoid Confederate troops while waiting for the politicians to give up on the war. The Senator promptly went to the President. He might have opposed the war, but he found the idea of the Army violating the orders of their civilian superiors to be far worse. Even Republicans might be chafing under the thumb of the MIC.

[Pirate Smile]

31. All right...that is creepy.

Good post but I hate that feeling of foreboding.

[Enthusiast]

70. Me too.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[uponit7771]

91. +1 "Even Republicans might be chafing under the thumb of the MIC" Bush made a deal with...

...the devil in regards to Iraq and now they are devouring the country from the inside

[rhett o rick]

37. How did the republicons let this happen? Sounds too good to be true. nm

[annabanana]

89. Self interested short sightedness? . . . . .n/t

[bullwinkle428]

38. K&R, but don't underestimate the Democrats' ability to fuck this up.

[DCBob]

73. yeah, theres always that possibility..

but I think the momentum is shifting to our side and the Dems know it and will use it.

[Bennyboy]

41. This would be awesome IF...

there were Democrats anywhere in DC.

[quakerboy]

67. Dont, worry, they will be back after thanksgiving

all 7 of them

[Richardo]

42. Delicious

:patriot:

[a2liberal]

44. "somehow convince Democrats to bail them out."

Watch them do exactly that, and for the Dems to advocate it as well. There'll be emergency legislation because the defense cuts will be deemed a "threat to national security". Those will be repealed or "delayed". Maybe the other triggered cuts will too as a token measure, maybe not.

[fascisthunter]

46. I wouldn't be surprised

[quakerboy]

68. You have it all wrong

Democrats will have to compromise. There will be no other choice. It will be absolutely imperative that they prevent these draconian cuts to offense spending. But in return for the R votes to pass that, they will have to give the Republicans another extension of the Bush/Obama tax cuts for the wealthy.

[Paka]

45. Ya gotta love it! n/t

[ejbr]

51. seeing how these Dems operate, I am not counting my chickens n/t

[Skittles]

105. CORRECT

[joshguitar]

52. saw this story yesterday and it made me laugh.

love it.

[Blue Owl]

53. Orange you glad you're not a republican?

Suck it, Boenher & Co.!

[lordsummerisle]

54. k&r n/t

[WestMichRad]

57. Aren't you forgetting something?

"Republicans can't stop these triggers on their own." Bullshit. This sounds great, but we should have learned from the past year that the Repugs will stop at nothing to try and gain leverage to get what they want. They'll take a must-pass bill (such as debt default - remember? It was less than 4 months ago!) and play brinksmanship with it. I expect them to refuse to support budget extensions, for example, unless the Dems and Obama are willing to capitulate by agreeing to renew the Bush tax cuts. (Didn't they do that just a year ago??) They can do this by not allowing the House to pass a budget extension. And if the Dems cave and "compromise" by renewing the regressive tax cuts for a couple more years, we'll get to see the pols play the whole stupid game again in a couple of years.

You'd think they would learn, but the Dems play right into the Repug's hands by agreeing to these compromise temporary measures, which let the Repugs use the same tactics again and again.

Face it, the Repugs have learned how to be very effective at blocking progress when they are the minority party, by shamelessly using any tactic needed to gum up the workings of government. Since they never really get called out on the carpet for doing these things, they'll keep at it. And as we should have learned in the recent past, the mechanics of our government don't work well when one party simply becomes obstructionist at all cost.

[neoconn]

58. I'm not to sure about that..

The last incident with the repugs holding the debt ceiling bill as hostage didn't sit to well with even the repug base (just tea party). I don't think that tactic will be used again until after an election year... Plus the world has changed enough with the rise of OWS and people are being more conscious about things. I really do think Obama played chess with the repugse and we will see this play out....

[Ikonoklast]

82. And in doing so, would get absolutely slaughtered in the polls.

The public is now wise to the Teabaggery Obstructionism, and polls show that voters are getting increasingly impatient for this Congress to get moving, move forward, and get something done, instead of playing the obstructionist game.

Every time they threaten to use that "Shut it all down!" tactic, they lose support among the voting public.

And if they refuse to actually try to get something of substance done, the party in control of the House will get hammered next fall.

And the Republican Teabaggers know it. They can read poll results. They see that doing nothing is rapidly becoming a losing strategy. The Teabaggers are losing theit grip on the Republican Party old-line stalwarts, you can see them becoming restive as they are chafing under the control of Norquist and Limbaugh.

[neoconn]

92. Absolutely!!

There are becoming less relevant as each day goes passes.

They played hardball but Obama played smart-ball. Obama knew they stonewalled everything and would likely continue in any form. Checkmate.....

[bertman]

60. Thanks for posting this. I'm going to take a wait-and-see attitude on this one, though. nt

[Firebrand Gary]

62. K&R

[digidigido]

63. Which is why the 2012 election is important

A different president could impact this, not to mention The Supreme's

[RainDog]

71. hopeful this happens... n/t

[Major Hogwash]

72. Who wants to play poker with President Obama now?

"Not me", "not me", "not me", "not me", "not me", "not me, either". <--- All 6 Republicans that were on the Super Duper Committee.

"Com'on guys, just one more hand. Let's bet on who controls the House in 2013." <--- Obama to entire Republican Party.

LoL

Don't call his bluff, he plays it rough!!

[scuciti]

76. know when to fold 'em.

Hmm, to pick up your analogy I half expect Obama to fold before any of this comes to pass. And he might throw SS and Medicare in the pot before he does. Saying that as a previous supporter , but as a progressive I am very jaded.

[droidamus2]

77. Interesting

The Republicans have been using 'do nothing' to hold on to any conservative legislative gains they made during Bush's 8 years and to stop any progressive legislation from being passed. So now Obama (or whoever came up with this plan) has put them in the position that 'doing nothing' actually works against what they want. Nice trick.

[civilisation]

80. These are now the Obama tax cuts,.

they should have already expired. (This should tell you how it will go in the future as well!)

These sunsets are not nearly enough. The military "cut" is only a cut to proposed budget growth! We need to have real cuts to the military, the military is not even used in budget debate any longer, as it is semi-holy in this fascist system. Obama can end the wars with no approval from congress or the senate. Bring all the troops home, and cut the military budget by 4/5ths! The military is supposed to protect the country, not enforce this NWO of banker/corporate fascism around the world.

[qb]

81. Damned be any DINO who sides with the Republicans.

:mad:

[DCBob]

84. and damned be any Democrat who is so short-sighted as not see this deal is good for all of us.

that is if the Presdent and the Dems in congress play this correctly.

[lonestarnot]

85. Tee hee!

:7 K & R!

[polichick]

87. Most likely, Dems will find a way to fuck this up - though it would be nice if they didn't.

[annabanana]

88. Now THAT'S chess!

Kudos for playing the long game.

[muriel_volestrangler]

95. Does anyone know a complete list of what expires at the end of 2012, with numbers?

This lists various things, but doesn't specify what the income tax rates and thresholds are:

• Marriage penalty equalization ends

• Dividends taxed at capital gains rates removed, taxed at regular rates now

• Capital gains low tax rates expires

• Removal of itemized deduction phase out for higher income Americans

• Removal of personal exemption phase out for higher income Americans

• Child care deduction limit of $3,000 reverts to $2,400

• Child credit reduces from $1,000 per child to $500 per child

• Low 10% tax bracket for low income Americans is eliminated

• Lower income tax rates and smaller brackets expires

• Refundable adoption credit and reduced deduction

• American Opportunity college education credit expires

• Major reduction in earned income credits and refunds

• Income tax exemption for debt forgiven on home foreclosures and repossessions

• Deduction for student loan interest ends

• Education IRA limit drops from $2,000 to $500

http://betweenthenumbers.net/2011/11/some-major-tax-breaks-expiring-in-2011-and-2012/

There's quite a lot there to expire if no agreement is achieved. Getting rid of all of that would probably be unpopular - in which case there's still negotiation and heavy pushing of the Democratic message to be done. It's not a simple "do nothing and people will like the result" situation.

[and-justice-for-all]

99. good!! nt

[midnight armadillo]

100. If the DoD budget goes to 2007 levels we will ALL DIE

Remember, that's what the failed supercommittee negotiations have brought us to. On top of Obama's $500 billion reduction in future Pentagon spending, the additional $500 in cuts will ramp us back a few years in spending.

This is the end of the free world.

[KoKo]

103. Ezra is "''DA MAN!" HUGE K&R...He Nails it....

:kick:

[KoKo]

104. Another Kic to the GREATEST PAGE!