SC: Grinch 38 (+30), Mitt 15 (-1), Cain 13 (-19). IA: Grinch 28 (+16), Paul 13 (+4), Mitt 12 (-7)

[jefferson_dem]

SC POLL: Grinch 38 (+30), Mittens 15 (-1), Cain13 (-19)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html#polls

IA POLL: Grinch 28 (+16), Paul 13 (+4), Mittens 12 (-7)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html#polls

[AlinPA]

1. It really looks like it's going to be Gingrich now.

[BeyondGeography]

2. They really are fucking with Romney

Gotta give the crazies credit on that one.

[AlinPA]

3. He is finished. Gingrich will take the nomination and they will choose a VP who appears sane.

[WI_DEM]

6. Perhaps Huntsman?

[AlinPA]

8. That's it.

[Renew Deal]

16. Never

For a number of reasons. Probably someone more stable than Gingrich though.

[AlinPA]

17. He would appeal to more Americans in the general election, but can't win the primary:

Why Huntsman can’t win the republican primaries:
1. He supported civil unions as Governor of Utah
2. He said he would not use federal powers to block a law legalizing same-sex marriage.
3. He threatened to veto a bill repealing in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants.
4. He signed a bill giving illegal aliens access to “driving-privilege cards”.
5. He supports granting more H-1B visas to foreigners
6. He has not taken an anti-immigrant or anti-Hispanic stance.
7. He signed the Western Climate Initiative, by which Utah joined with other governments in agreeing to pursue targets for reduced production of greenhouse gases.
8. He appeared in an advertisement sponsored by Environmental Defense, in which he said, “Now it’s time for Congress to act by capping greenhouse-gas pollution"
9. He worked in the Obama administration as an ambassador to China
10. He is a Mormon
11. He said he believes in science
12. He said he believes in evolution.
13. He has said that President Obama is an American citizen.
14. He is too rational, too normal, too genteel for most of today’s conservatives.

[Renew Deal]

19. He has no natural voter base that matters in a GE

He's from Utah which brings no new votes into their column. Most people in the rest of the country don't know who he is. He doesn't counterbalance Newts newtness enough. And I think there are people that are going to have personal issues with him.

[DCBob]

26. Gingrich needs a female VP to offset his past performance.

Maybe Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina or Liz Cheney (heaven forbid!)

[WI_DEM]

4. Who would ever have thought that Newt Gingrich would be the GOP front runner for president?

[DCBob]

20. He's always been a favorite of the RW talk radio crowd.

Its not really all that surprising given the losers that he is competing against.

[JoePhilly]

5. Cain's adultery sends his supporters to adulterer Gingrich .... bwahahahahha!!

[thereismore]

23. Yes, but Grinch is white. nt

[davidpdx]

7. Here's how I think it will play out.

I think Gingrich wins Iowa. Santorum and Batwitch drop out.

New Hampshire goes to Mittens despite the UL's endorsement. Huntsman and Cain drop out.

South Carolina goes for Gingrich. Perry drops out. The race comes down to Mittens and Gingrich, but Paul refuses to drop out.

[AlinPA]

11. And Gingrich wins and they pick Huntsman VP as WI_DEM suggests above.

[WI_DEM]

13. It will come down to Florida. Just like '08 if Mitt doesn't win FL he's finished.

[davidpdx]

31. Well the latest poll has Newt up by a mile in Florida

So you are right on that one. I liked the question Chris Matthews asked the other day. What if three different candidates win the first three states, will the party intervene? It is totally likely it could happen.

[nevergiveup]

9. Grinch will have about 10 days of glory

and then Romney will by default resume his very weak front of the pack status. It is already written. Romney will be the nominee.

[ProSense]

10. What

a mess!

:rofl:

[bullwinkle428]

12. "Bum of the Month" Club!

:rofl:

[WI_DEM]

14. All these 'independents' claim they want cooperation and an end to partisan fighting

and the GOP just might nominate the guy who impeached President Bill Clinton while he himself was having an affair behind his then wife's back! LOL! and later had to resign his speakership and from congress when it came out because he was a hypocrite.

[Renew Deal]

15. Romney has stayed on the sidelines for a little too long

Now he needs to claw back.

[sufrommich]

18. Hard as it is for me to believe ,it does indeed look like

Gingrich will be the last man standing.Crazy.

[jzodda]

21. I never thought he had much of a chance...until now!

I mean it was bad enough with all his "baggage" but once he took that trip to Greece and his top staffers abandoned his campaign I thought it was 100% all over with him. In some ways this is more a reflection on Mitt than on Newt. The right seems to have an anybody but Mitt viewpoint which leads to a new front runner as others fall aside.

I think a race between Newt and Obama will be very very interesting. Since he has the baggage and a past that most of us are already familiar with plus being right of Mitt-I think that this will make Obama's re-election all the easier. Not to say we should be complacent but I do not think Newt is electable unless 2012 is a very terrible year for the US economically. That's Newts only chance I believe and probably what he is hoping for.

[thereismore]

22. I agree. Mittens would be more formidable, but the repigs hate him too much. nt

[CoffeeCat]

24. The problem with Newt...

...is that he is an incredibly skilled and talented orator--and a master of history and
economics. He knows a shit ton--and he can win a debate against anyone.

Yes, his ideas are batshit, and the thought of having him as President is revolting.

Most of us understand that he is batshit crazy.

However, Americans have a very short attention span. They won't remember that he was practically
run out of DC and that his "Contract on America" was miserable failure. They won't remember
that he had affairs and left his dying wife.

What will be front and center--will be his speeches. He could sell a bottle of Evian to a drowning man.This is what scares me. He's like the devil. He can make the most radical,
sociopathic ideas sound reasonable. And he will express those ideas with such
eloquence--using historical references, light humor, and plenty of knowledge about
the topics discussed. He will prey on fears and our current economic uncertainty.

Very powerful stuff.

Obama is operating from a position of weakness--due to the bad economy. Not a good position
for the Democrats--with a lethal showman like Newt sauntering around the country for months
and months.

:scared:

[Robbins]

25. 2012

Some republicans think we want Romney as nominee.No we don't.Romney Is toughest opporent although I believe he could be beaten.With Gingrich the chances of winning
goes up higely.

Gingrich IS emerging as strong contender In Iowa.And Is now challenging Romney IN NH.If Romney loses NH he Is toast.SC Is unlikly to vote for Romney.Even If romeny wins
the NH primary he could still lose the nomination.If Gingrich wins Iowa and SC and Romney can win Nevada as well as NH It all comes down to Florida.Just like In 2008
the winner of the Florida primary will likely be Obama's opporent In November.

[beac]

29. But does Gingrich REALLY want the job?

I think (based on his own past statements) that he's only in it to re-charge his "street cred" and sell his books/scams/services.

He likes to take Greek luxury vacations, spend like a king at Tiffany's and work the easy 15-hour week of an "historian" for hire. I don't think he's up for the tough and thankless 24/7 job of POTUS.

I'll bet he finds some "time w/my family"/health reason to drop out if it really looks like he might take the nomination.

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Has a primary season ever been so volatile before?

For either party? Were there just huge numbers of undecided Repub voters, and as some make up their mind, it boosts one candidate? Or are they following the 'playing soccer for the first time' model, where they all zoom to the spot the ball is/was just at simultaneously?

[ellisonz]

28. Poor Mittens...

:(

[agentS]

30. Wow! They REALLY hate Ronmney!

If even Paul and Cain are polling better than him, and he's been spending millions on ads and campaign staff...
what does that say about his campaign skills?