Bush Administration Welcomes the Kyrgyz Revolution [View All]

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BUSH ADMINISTRATION WELCOMES THE KYRGYZ REVOLUTION


Kyrgyzstan’s revolution is widely welcomed in Washington, and has some American policy planners contemplating the possibility of regime change in other Central Asian nations, especially Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The tendency among Bush administration supporters is to see Kyrgyzstan, where Bishkek protesters pushed President Askar Akayev from power on March 24, as part of the trend toward genuine democracy in the former Soviet Union, closely linked to Georgia’s Rose Revolution in 2003, and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004. . In the Bush administration view, all three revolutions are, at their core, reactions against the "managed democracy" model of government, in which the trappings of a democratic system is grafted on to an authoritarian-minded leadership structure. .

Events in Kyrgyzstan help justify Washington’s pursuit of the "Bush Doctrine," or the globalization of American democratic values, Bush administration supporters contend. Many of those associated with the Republican Party establishment believe the Bush Doctrine served as a major source of inspiration for Kyrgyzstan’s popular protest movement, which began amid allegations of vote-manipulation during the country’s recent parliamentary election. .

Just a few years ago, Washington embraced Akayev as an ally, portraying him as the leader of Central Asia’s most progressive government. Indeed, Kyrgyzstan was at one point hailed as an "island of democracy." But the very event that brought the United States and Kyrgyzstan closer together, the September 11 terrorist tragedy, also prompted Akayev to embrace an increasingly authoritarian governing style. Faced with a rising threat presented by Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, Akayev sought to stifle political opposition. At the same time, his administration tolerated widespread corruption, while members of family accumulated vast fortunes by using political influence to establish extensive business networks....cont'd


By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., a Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and co-author and editor of Eurasia in Balance (Ashgate, 2005).

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav022905.shtml

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Who do these neocons think they're kidding?
Of course this has NOTHING to do with our oil/gas interests along the Caspian Sea, and related pipelines.
More propaganda (notice how the 'war on terror' follows the oil/gas and other resource development) >

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Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline: not yet finished and already threatened

The long-delayed 1000-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to transport 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian to the Turkish port of Ceyhan is progressing toward completion as early as 2005. But even before the construction is finished, terrorist elements may already be planning attacks on this high quality target.

According to Azerbaijan’s National Security Minister, Namiq Abbasov, the country’s special services had obtained information that regional insurgents and members of al Qaeda are planning acts of sabotage designed to derail construction of the pipeline. If true, this means that the BTC, which traverses some of the world’s most unstable regions, could be a target of a new terrorist campaign to disrupt the flow of much needed oil from the Caspian Sea to Western markets. The pipeline could provide livelihood for many people in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia as well as stimulate economic activity in eastern Turkey, and it will make a contribution to enhancing world energy security by developing a non-OPEC oil source. Therefore, failure of the countries involved to ensure the security of the project will have severe implications on the future of the region as well as global energy markets at large.

Who has an interest in damaging the pipeline? Of all the countries in the region Iran is perhaps the state actor with the strongest motivation to impede the BTC project. Engulfed by U.S. forces in both its neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran is agitated by growing U.S. military presence in Central Asia and views the U.S. led war on terror as an American pretext to penetrate the region and seize control over Caspian oil. To disrupt the flow of oil in the BTC pipeline Iran could use its web of proxies and the terrorist groups it sponsors. Iran is not only a major oil producing country but also a stepping stone between the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. As such, it would like to see Caspian oil flowing through its territory rather than through Turkey. It is therefore offering an alternative route which runs from Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan along the eastern Caspian shore, through Turkmenistan and on to the Iranian border. From there the pipeline would run across the eastern part of Iran to the Persian Gulf terminal at Bandar Abbas. If the construction of the BTC pipeline is completed and the pipeline operates well, it will make very little sense for Iran to carry out its plan. However, if the flow of oil in the BTC pipeline is interrupted due to sabotage, there will be strong incentive for major oil companies to seek an alternative route.

Other players who would like to see the project fail are terrorist groups operating along the pipeline route. Such groups strive to weaken the governments they oppose by denying them revenue from the pipeline. The Turks, for example, are a long way away from reaching a settlement with the Kurds and are involved in fighting with the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK). Until the Kurdish issue is resolved, Kurdish groups might want to derail the project. The PKK has already attacked pipelines as recently as last month. Turkish television reported that on October 24 a remote controled device was detonated on a pipeline in the Garzan region. Two days later the PKK bombed an oil pipeline in southeastern Turkey. In addition there is increasing threat by Islamist groups operating in the Caucasus such as the Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Chechen separatists and Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami. The later group seeks to seize power and supplant existing governments with Sharia-based Caliphate for the purpose of jihad against the west. The head of the Kazakh National Security Committee Nartai Dutbayev said that the Hizb has recently increased its clandestine activities in Kazakhstan and poses "a real threat to Kazakhstan's security." In early September, Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, publicly admitted that Hizb-ut-Tahrir is making significant inroads in his country.

In the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh the conflict between Armenian and Azeris still goes on. Armenian nationalists might decide to attack the BTC in order to hurt Azerbaijan, which derives most of its income from oil sales.

Much of the stability along the BTC corridor would depend on Russia. Russia is not supportive of BTC. It sees it as a U.S. plot to gain control over the Caucasus and cut all links between Moscow of the former Soviet states, building an economic infrastructure that would prevent the former Soviet states to ever reunite with Russia. Moscow also views BTC as a way to weaken its position as major supplier of oil to the European markets. In a recent article at Asia Times Online, John Helmer refers to the BTC project as an effort “to redraw the geography of the Caucasus on an anti-Russian map.”

Another problem BTC poses Russia has to do with its tense relations with Georgia. As it is, the Georgia suffers from many domestic problems: it is emerging from a civil war and is rife with corruption, but perhaps its most serious problem is the growing likelihood of war with Russia over the two breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The August 8 Moscow News quotes Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili: “If war begins it will be a war between Georgia and Russia, not between the Georgians and Ossetians. … We are very close to a war (with Russia), the population must be prepared.” ...cont'd

http://www.iags.org/n1104041.htm
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REGIONAL DATEBOOK

March 24-26: Russian President Vladimir Putin to make a two-day visit to Armenia to hold talks with Robert Kocharian and participate in a ceremony marking the start of the "Year of Russia" in Armenia

March 29: US First Lady Laura Bush heads to Afghanistan

March 30-31: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili visits Kazakhstan for talks with counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev; talks expected to cover regional issues, bilateral cooperation, including Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline

March 30-31: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visits Poland for talks with counterpart Aleksander Kwasniewski on bilateral, regional issues