Reply #1: If there is a war, all Persian Gulf oil will be cut off for the duration of the conflict. [View All]

[Selatius]

Because nobody is going to run the Hormuz Strait without fear of being sunk by Russian anti-ship Sunburn missiles sold to Iran some years back. Iran sits prominently above the Strait and could easily fire down on any ship crossing through.

This will send oil prices skyrocketing into space, and the US economy will be brought to its knees with the worst oil price shock in recorded history. The EU economy would suffer terribly as well, including the rest of the world.

Worse yet, it may provoke the splintering of Iraq, since many Shia militias are influenced by Iran. With Baghdad in chaos, Turkey may take matters into their own hands in terms of dealing with the Kurds and launch a full-scale invasion to keep a lid on the Kurds who will find Baghdad is no longer keeping them in check.

In Baghdad, expect Iranian scud missiles to land on the Green Zone, perhaps several dozens of them. No telling how many American servicemen are going to get bombed. Worse yet, Shia militias may attempt to overrun the Green Zone in the name of killing the "infidels."