The consortium ran several scenarios. Under the very limited recount that Gore had asked for, he would have lost to Bush by a very slight margin. If the recount had extended statewide, Gore would have won a very slight margin over Bush.
The articles that came out at the time gave the election to Gore in 7 of 9 recount scenarios. It is significant, though, that the limited recount Gore had asked for would have tossed it to Bush.
I was able to locate one reference to this here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/politics/12VOTE.html?ex=1081483200&en=c1335494e903607d&ei=5070You need to read to the end of the article to get the point, something the average Freeper and Bush apologist is unwilling or unable to do. They read the headlines and assumed that they'd read the whole article, and that is the reason they all insist on a total falsehood.