Reply #6: Look at the alternative [View All]

[happyslug]

Will this administration WITHDRAW FROM IRAQ? According to people who have researched the matter the US Army will go into terminal decline to to lack of new recruits sometime in 2006 (Rough Estimate depends on how the fighting continues in Iraq AND if the US expands the War ti include Iran). Thus basically the Army will be done by 2006.

I believe that had The US had the draft at the time of 9/11 Bush could NOT have gone into Iraq (Afghanistan yes, but not Iraq) because the Draft means more people would know someone in the military and thus oppose sending the troops to war. This is the main reason the GOP oppose the raft, a draft makes it harder to send the Troops anywhere Corporate America wants the US to intervene. A draft would complicate such commitments, that a mercenary army (which is what the US has at the present time) does not have to really worry about.

Thus the problem for Bush is come 2006 you will see a situation like Israel had in Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s. Israel was unwilling to send in Israeli troops (Who tend to be reservists), but with no one enlisting for "Regular" troops service do to the ongoing losses in Lebanon Israel was forced to withdraw. (I know the Israeli Army is not form the same way as the US Army and most of the losses Israel suffered in the Lebanese war was among its allies in South Lebanon. Those allies were formed into the South Lebanese Army which became less and less Christian and more and more hired mercenary Moslem's as the occupation lasted. Even with the Switch to Mercenary Muslims the Israelis could NOT recruit the troops needed to hold Lebanon so Israel Abandoned southern Lebanon).

Back on track, my point is the US Army will "crack" sometime in 2006 do to lack of recruits. The US does not have the option of hiring a local mercenary army to do its work (Like how Israel Recruited the South Lebanon Army). The attempts have been failures except for the Kurds who want to fight for an independent Kurdistan (and thus willing to help the US against their fellow Iraqis but not really willing to fight to keep Iraq whole under US Control). Thus unless the insurgency dies down within the next year (And that is NOT expected) Bush will have to make a choice, pull out of Iraq OR institute the Draft. Bush wants NEITHER, but come 2006 he will have to choose, and I fear he will opt for the Draft rather than pull out of Iraq.

One last comment, I see the draft being first for "Skill" positions, i.e. Medical personal, Computer people, Linguists who generally NOT be in the line of fire (and the Draft will be justified on that ground, i.e. we need these people BUT they will not be fired upon). Once the Skill draft is implemented than a secondary Draft to built back up the Reserves and National Guard "To help the States" (Yes after destroying the Guard, Bush will "save" the Guard with the draft so that the states can have the Guard for Emergencies). It is only after the Draft is imposed to "save" the Guard will the draft be extended to the Regular Army (Through this may take Months instead of years, so watch how it works out).