MY prediction on the Oct. 7th recall [View All]

[jeter]

My prediction is that Davis wins. Not because of this debate, but because of Bush's plunging popularity. Midterm type elections are hard to predict, because it is all about voter turnout. Case in point the 2002 midterms, the 1998 midterms, the 1994 midterms, etc. etc. etc.

Who are you angrier at?

That's what midterms come down to in the end. Now I know this isn't a typical midterm. But it is almost.

People are angry at Bush and opponents of his will come out. The Greens, Arianna's supporters, and Democrats. All of them are opposed to the midterm.

Polls are funny things. I still stand by my original argument that Arnold finishes third (after Bustemante and McClincock). His numbers in the polls are only at 25% they don't go up. They don't go down. They are stuck there. Frozen.

I am willing to bet every penny that I have that one-third to half of the people who say they are voting for Arnold are ignorant people who probably won't vote at all.

McClincock's supporters are more rabid. And if anything, Arnold divides his vote, not the other way around. Cruz will get about 30% to 35%.

This is how I see it breaking down:
Cruz 30 to 35%
McClincock 20 to 25%
Arnold 15 to 20%
Arianna 5 to 8%
Green 5 to 8%
Everyone else - the difference.

Davis will survive with about 50 to 55% voting AGAINST the recall.

California Republicans will retain their well deserved title as "the dumbest people on earth."

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