Just my opinion, The Democratic race (long post) [View All]

[radfringe]

flame me if you want - here's how I see the race shaping up.. candidates are listed in alphabetical order and not by my preferences

Braun: Overall a good speaker, has good ideas, but she's not taken as a serious candidate. She does keep more than a few issues out in front and this is good.

Clark: Too early to place my bet. Upside of his entering the race is that he will attract moderate, independent and more than just a few conservatives. Downside, he took his time to declare his party affiliation and then more time to declare his candidacy - this could play as being indecisive or as someone who takes his time, considers the options/alertnatives before making a decision. He is new to the political game, it will be a few more weeks before we can tell if he is capable of playing the game.

Dean: For better or worse, Dean has shook up the Democratic party. His campaign has forced the other candidates to crawl out from the moderate and repug-lite swamp. I am wondering if he can keep it up or will he implode as the pressure grows.

Edwards: I don't think he will be able go the distance. His emphasis on being from the south, son of a working class family will only play so far. I think it is too early in his political career to have thrown his hat in the ring.

Gephardt: Too little noise too late. Trying to play both sides of the political fence at the same time. If he gets the nomination, I'll vote for him, but it won't be a pro-Gephardt vote it will be an anti-whistleass vote. Meanwhile, I think he'll be dropping out after New Hampshire.

Graham: Although he has good qualifications, I see him as being on the timid side, not much fire there to rally the support needed to get the nomination.

Kerry: When the candidates began to "unofficially" throw their hats into the ring, I had pegged Kerry for eventually getting the nomination. Now, I'm not so sure. I don't really understand what happened to his earlier momentum, but it's faded quite a bit. He's still in the running, but he will need to do some serious reconfiguring of his campaign.

Kuchinich: On the attack but not gaining ground. hate to say this, but the scuttlebutt in my neck of the woods is that Kuchinich is coming across as an angry garden gnome. He may make it to the Feb 3 primaries, but I think he'll drop out after that.

Lieberman: Repug-lite, trying too hard to attack the whistleass and still support a moderate/conservative agenda. He has moved to attack the other Dem candidates, but this is not playing well in Peoria. I seriously doubt he would take a second-seat as a VP candidate.

Sharpton: well, what can I say... He's the successor to Jesse Jackson. Making alot of noise, but I don't see him as a very viable candidate. he's shaping up to be a perrenial candidate for any available office

Horserace bet: going to be neck and neck between Dean and Clark. Kerry and Gephardt trailing on the inside rails. Alot is going to depend on future events (i.e. the economy tanking or not, Iraq-mess, terra-lerts/attacks etc.)
The underlying current is not which Democratic Candidate has the best agenda/appeal or which is most likely to be able to beat the whistleass. The underlying current is how bad will the Whistleass screw up and allow the doors to be flung wide open for a change. The 2004 election is the whistleass's to lose