Note On CA Recall Polls [View All]

[David__77]

I have never before seen such varying polls in a political race as we have seen with regard to the recall campaign in California. There is much hoopla in the media concerning a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showing the recall ahead by "63%" to "35%" and Schwarzenegger leading his nearest competitor, Cruz Bustamante, by 15 points.

We simply cannot give polls much credence in this case. I tend to believe that the reality is much closer to the LA Times poll, which shows the recall a very close race, or to the Field poll, which shows a half as small lead for the yes on recall vote. Even Schwarzenegger's own "internal" polls only show the actor leading by seven points at most. And, these "internal" polls are in part for the purpose of motivating a sense of momentum for media consumption.

The recall election will be pretty close, as will the successor election. We will be seeing other polls in the next few days which will be telling a different story than the one described by this CNN poll. In ALL polls, momentum is moving in the governor's direction. In the previous CNN poll, the recall was leading by "69%" to "24%"(!!!). Schwarzenegger led by a larger margin in the previous poll as well, at the same time other polls showed Bustamante with a lead.

So, before we get too concerned about any one poll, I just wanted to reiterate for Californians, that the most important thing is to make sure that all of your friends vote and that we mobilize our constituency to vote to block the Republicans:

No On Recall!
Yes On Bustamate!