Ophelia may affect entire east coast now! [View All]

[msongs]

(glad to see this page is loading now)

according to NOAA ophelia as a tropical storm may shift west some and affect the entire east coast instead of heading out to sea off North Carolina:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 150257
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700
MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE
EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE
TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE
CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT
TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING
OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION
DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/150257.shtml

gonna be a wet week. Hope bushco know where the rain is coming from THIS time.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/liberaltshirts.htm