I think scores of Indpendents will move from Arnie to McLintock [View All]

[CMT]

I think that Cruz will not be the big beneficiary on the second ballot. I think Tom McClintock will be--and in the end this will help Cruz Bustamante.

Right now McClintock is polling around 15% in most polls. Arnold is between 35-40 percent and Cruz is between 25-32 percent.

I think the revelations regarding Arnold will hurt him with voters who still want Davis out and may think that Bustamante is no improvement. I think they will switch instead to McClintock especially more conservative independents and republicans who may have gotten on the Arnie bandwagon when it looked like he was a sure winner and before the extent of these revelations came out.

My guess is that McClintock could raise his vote total to about 20-22 percent. Various third party candidates will get about 6%. Bustamante should get at least 35-40% (after all this is California a traditionally democratic state). Arnie will get in the low to mid 30's.