Reply #44: Sorry, you are wrong, and I will prove it. [View All]

[CoffeePlease1947]

"A criminal investigation into the mayor of that city won't somehow translate into Philly going for Republicans,"

You are wrong. You did not read. First off, Ashcroft has already said he is NOT being investagated. So there is some other reason for the bug.

Second, it would turn to the hands of the Republicans because he is up for re-election in a few weeks (not next year) against a Republican and is neck and neck in the polls.

Third, any competant mayor can get his party 35% of the vote to turn the state. A popular man like Katz can do at least that good.

As for your states and predictions, you are incorrect in terms of where those states stand now. Wisconsin lost about 500,000 jobs. Bush's ratings in that state are starting to look like Gray Davis's.

Iowa, maybe, but if Clark wins the nomination that balances it out. Further, it is likely that Clark may even carry other other states.

New Mexico, that is nicely in the hands of the Democrats now. Bill Richardson has a 65% approval rating and the state is 42% Hispanic. Enven the 80's Hispanics were voting 65% in favor of the most liberal candidate.

Florida, well, we won the state last time. Also, if Clark is nominated he will attrach votes in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts which are southern. He will also swing votes in the 18th congressional district that is heavily military.

Now let's through in the curve ball, or a few. Clark is also of Jewish decent, raised Baptist, and became Catholic when he married Gert. This are the leading religions in Florida. Let us also consider that the Hispanic population has grow about 2-3% every year since 2000.

Now consider a Clark/Richardson ticket and see how that plays into your electoral math. You will find it heavily in favor of the Democrats. For Gephardt and Dean, I agree with your view that we will lose all four of those state and many more.

Mike