Reply #10: The public wanted to fire Carter. [View All]

[Silverhair]

To win over Carter all Reagan had to do was reassue people that he would not blow up the world. Under Carter inflation was in the high teens and unemployment was at 9+%, (Economists invented a new word for his economy - stagflation. Stagnation & inflation compined.) and internationally America had been and was continuing to be humiliated. The Soviets had brought numberous countries into their orbit. In the 1980 election, my father, who had been a Democrat all of his life, voted for Reagan.

In the 1984 election Mondale blew it big time. He promised to raise taxes. That isn't going to win a lot of votes. He picked Ferraro as his running mate. Picking a woman VP is what I call a multiplier move. If you are already strong in the polls, it makes you stronger. If you are behind in the polls, it puts you further behind. It is a move that has to be made from strength. Mondale was behind in the polls, and so it looked like a campaign stunt to many people. It was like he was saying, "Jerry, save my campaign."

Not was it even a bold move. He had been asked by a reporter if he would consider a woman running mate. He had answered that he would, and thereby set the expectations. Once he had said that, if he had picked a man it would have looked to many like he wouldn't really consider a woman. He handled it poorly, closing out his options too early.

Also, he had been Carter's VP, and was too tainted. People didn't want Carterism back. (Dad voted Reagan again.)

Sorry if that offends anyone. My intention is for that to be an objective analysis. It does not mean I am happy about it.

Reagan was beatable, but not by Carter's VP, and definately not with the campaign he ran.

Dean seems to be making one of the mistakes of Mondale. His promise to repeal GWB's tax cut will be used by the Reps as an promise to raise taxes.

I think Clark is our best shot. No, he doesn't have the ideologial purity that most here would like, but I think he can win.

If we Dems take another defeat in 04, we will lose even our ability to filibuster in the Senate. (Then W will be able to appoint whomever he pleases as a judge.) Typically the party that wins the presidency picks up seats in the congress in both houses. We have more at risk than the Reps because we have more Senators up for election than they do.