Reply #46: We are talking ENERGY, and how that will affect ALL OF US. [View All]

[happyslug]

As to farmers, they are some of the largest users of oil in the US. Not because they like spending money of oil and riding tractors all over the place, but they need to just to be able to farm and break even.

The problem is that oil will go up (you may see some drops in price but those will be only temporary, the overall trend is UP). This is going ot put a squeeze on most people (not just farmers). I doubt anyone is making a killing in the food production and distribution system, but given the overall systems dependence on oil prices WILL go up just so each part can stay in business. Thus I foresee a slow increase in food (Please note the recent increase in food prices had more to do with inflation than oil, bush and Company prefers inflation over the banks and Wall Street taking a hit over the recent Credit Crunch).

In my mind, is what alternative are out there for farmers? About 15 years ago I read an Article that even then if you are farming less then 50 Acres a horse is more cost effective then a tractor (The article did NOT go into if such a farmer could LIVE on what those 50 acres produced, just that it was more cost effective). Horses were used through WWII (the three point hitch was NOT introduced onto American farms till 1939, even through invented in England in 1926). The three point hitch lead to the replacement of the Horse by Tractors after WWII (Yes, I know tractors have been used since the 1850s, steam then gasoline after 1900, but none could replace the horse till after the introduction of the three point hitch in 1939 and do to WWII, the switch could NOT take place till after WWII).

LEts look at the alternatives to diesel and gasoline powered tractors.. The horse is the best known. A horse limitations are while known, slower in speed, need more on hand work (i.e. MUST be groomed and feed every time it is used and feed even on days it is NOT used). Both the Horse and operator must be trained in what both are expected do (Unlike the tractor where only the operator has to be trained).

Please note: The large grain farms of the Great Plains went to Tractors early do to the size of its crop (and no need for any of the auxiliaries a three point hitch would provide). Tractors were also used to haul large loads whenever a truck was NOT capable or available, but on most farms the horse was competitive till after WWII. Mules were viewed as even better than horses. Oxen were more temperamental and slower but less picky on food (As big as the post-WWII switch over to Tractors from horses, was the earlier late 1800s switch over from oxen to mules do to mules greater speed, and efficiencies on the farm). My point is animal power is an alternative we have to look at, but the price will be higher prices on food do to the fact any animal powered farming system requires MORE HUMAN input as while as Animal input. If animals are an option, it will be to smaller farms which will require HIGHER prices for crops so to support the farmer on the smaller farms.

The other alternatives are NOT as nice. If Solar or Nuclear power is the main replacement for oil, then you have to convert the electricity made by each system to a system that can be used on a tractor. Direct hook up of power is a limited option (i.e. if the mechanism being used is able to hook right up to a power line). On most farms such direct hookup are not feasible. That leaves some way to stored the electrical power. One way is to store the power in Batteries (255 Efficiency) fuel cells (50% Efficiency) and fly wheels (90% efficiency). The most expensive and most efficient is fly wheels, but fly wheels are just that huge spinning wheels used to store electrical power. Fly wheels have been used by NASA in space for decades, but if they break they break in space where no one is near. On the ground, a tractors move side to side (much more than a car on a highway), tips over etc. Much more likely for an accident and release of the fly wheel. It is a disaster waiting to happen. Fuel cells, while not as efficient, are much safer in an accident. For this reason I foresee fuel cells being the electrical power storage device of the future for ground transportation especially tractors that do NOT go on flat roads.

Another way to "store" electrical energy, is to store such energy in liquid form i.e. use the electrical power to make Ethanol and use the Ethanol as a fuel. This system has the advantage of NOT needing to be recharged, all you have to do went empty is fill the tractor up (but the fuel will be a lot higher then it is now).

The real kicker in this system is that "Peak Oil" looks to be following a standard statistical Curve (i.e a "Bell Curve" for it is shaped like a bell). Under that curve it took us 145 years to get to peak production and will take us about 145 years to get back to zero production. Peak seems to have occurred in 2005, which is 145 years after 1860 (1859 was the year Drake did his first oil well, but I used 1860 for ease of addition). Thus for the over the next 100 years prices will be affected by what oil is pump, the amount pump will drop over time, but it will still be a factor. Thus a conversion to bio-fuel may be the best choice in the short run, while a combination horse/Electrical system may be better in the long run. Prices will slowly go up, but sooner or later the fact oil is disappearing will become the largest single factor. How soon this occurs is unknown and unknowable but Government can step in and take the lead on this subject. In many ways that should be the big issue this year, but none of Politicians running for President has mentioned it, and never will for most people have NOT even thought about what we should do.

Thus the real point is we MUST discuss options, including look backward at how people did things before oil AND looking forward on how to do farming given what we will have over the next 100 years.