Reply #39: Global PV production is expected to exceed 1.1 GW in 2005 [View All]

[jpak]

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=20124

Global electrical generating capacity in 2002 was 3464 GW

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/electric.html#IntlCapacity

So new PV capacity in 2005 will represent ~0.03% of total global generating capacity.

Global PV production is growing exponentially at ~40% per year and is expected to grow to 4.3 GW per year by 2020. Total global installed PV capacity is also expected to exceed 200 GW by 2020..

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/2004/indicator12.htm
http://eeru.open.ac.uk/natta/techupdates.html

Global installed wind capacity is currently 49 GW and is expected to grow to ~500 GW by 2020.

http://www.windustry.com/basics/01-introduction.htm

In contrast, new global nuclear capacity increased by 2.2 GW per year from 2000 - 2005 or ~0.06% of global generating capacity in 2005.

Global nuclear capacity will peak at ~364 GW in 2010 and decline to 349 GW by 2020.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/forecast/gencap.html

On balance:

Global installed PV capacity will grow from the current 3.5 GW to ~200 GW by 2020.

Global installed wind turbine capacity will grow from ~50 to ~500 GW between 2005 and 2020.

Global nuclear capacity will experience a net decrease of 15 GW between 2005 and 2020.

Global PV and Wind capacity in 2020 (~700 GW) will exceed global nuclear generating capacity (350 GW) by a factor of 2.

Doesn't look like the world is "clearly going nuclear" to me...