Might Energy Efficiency Lead to Higher CO2 Emissions? [View All]

[GliderGuider]

This is a twist on the Jevons Paradox that I hadn't run into before. To me it makes intuitive sense.

Energy Efficiency Leads to Higher CO2 Emissions?

A simple definition of peak oil:

Peak oil occurs when efficiency improvements fail to support the price increase needed for marginal production increase.

To unpack that: on the efficiency side, if the efficiency of a process doubles, then the energy needed to deliver the energy service halves allowing twice the price to be paid for the energy without impact. If America doubled the nation's vehicle fleet efficiency, $6 gas wouldn't seem so bad. On the production side, higher prices allow resources previously too expensive to be produced to be mobilised into reserves and produced. $100 oil opens the doors for Canadian tar sands and ultra deep water oil.

Hmmm..... Greater energy efficiency (especially for oil) leads to continued consumption at higher prices, the higher prices make more money available for production, resulting in continued production, which in turn results in higher CO2 emissions. If we had lower efficiency, usage would fall off faster as the price rose.

Lets all pray for a limit to energy efficiency??? It seems a rather paradoxical position for energy oriented environmentalists. Anyone care to poke a hole in it?