Reply #12: I hope Democrats realize the electoral significance of Virginia in 2008 [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

If we nominate Warner, that puts Virginia in play bigtime. And if we could somehow win Virginia, that changes the entire dynamic, essentially reversing the margin for error advantage from the GOP to our side. Basically, we would no longer need either Ohio or Florida. Kerry had 252 electoral votes. Virginia has 13. The magic number is 270. Admittedly, we would have to hold all of the Kerry states, including New Hampshire which Gore lost in 2000, but if that happened and we also won Virginia, then we would require only ONE of the following: New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado. Each of those states has at least 5 electoral votes, the magic over-the-top number.

Virginia has been trending slightly our way, but no chance we bump it over the top in 2008 minus a favorite son boost or a national mandate, which would make Virginia irrelevant anyway. Since Virginia has not been represented on a national ticket in quite a while, the favorite son boost should be considerable. Hardly surprising you have a Virginian (George Allen) as a potential nominee on each side. Here is the partisan chart, with relation to the national popular vote margin at right:

Virginia:
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican
'04: Bush (53.68 - 45.48) = + 5.74% Republican

I'm not sure we can project that 5.74 down another 2 points, or more, by 2008. If so, we might even be able to win Virginia with Warner in the VP slot. But that's doubtful, and would obviously depend on who topped the ticket. The traits dolstein's article hinted at atop this thread are vital to winning a state like Virginia. No one is going to wheel fake the NASCAR types and pretend to fit in. I don't threaten to guess what happens if Allen becomes the GOP frontrunner at the same time we're considering Warner. You would think dualing Virginians would default to GOP advantage, given the base instincts of the state. Warner was wise to forego a senate run versus an incumbent.