Let's rationally discuss nuclear exchange scenarios... [View All]

[Lerkfish]

let's forego labeling anyone as having reynolds wrap headgear. With Sy Hersh's latest article, the specter of nuclear exchange with Iran has arisen in the public arena. Let's have a ranging discussion of how this would come about, what it would mean politically and logistically and what the short term and long term effects would be regarding our place in the world and their attitude towards us.

Please feel free to contribute and speculate. No matter how off the wall your concerns or ideas may be, rest assured you're likely more rational than the chimp now holding the nuclear "football".

I'll start:

1. Assume for now the US truly intends to use nuclear bunkerbuster bombs to take out centrifuge breeders and nuclear reactor sites.
A: How would they achieve this?
1) knocking out anti-aircraft batteries in Iran, probably with a faked defense of "civilian" aircraft.
2) launching bunker busters, which require flyovers, probably from Iraq permanent military bases.
3) under the cover of night, we'll likely find out AFTER the fact.
B: REPERCUSSIONS
1) STRATEGICALLY: all nuclear treaties would be rendered null and void with that one act.
a) any and all nations or groups (including terrorist groups) that posess weapons of nuclear, bio or chem nature could and may declare open season on the US and its private citizens. As this admin has proven with Katrina, and only inspecting 5% of cargo, etc., we would be a porous bordered target nation.
2) HEALTH: The resulting plume of bombing a nuclear plant, even with non nuclear bunker-busting bombs would make chernobyl look like diaper rash in comparison. At least chernobyl could be capped. There is no way to cap a blown crater. The damage will already be done in a matter of minutes.
3) DIPLOMATICALLY: The immediate reduction of our diplomatic influence globally to nothing. We're close to that already, but after this attack, we will not have any fiat to diplomatically achieve ANYTHING. our only actions thereafter will be draconian military solutions to all problems. And the rest of the world will not sit idly by while that happens.

ok, that's my start....what do the rest of you think?