Is the candidate you support the one you think will win the primaries? [View All]

[Donald Ian Rankin]

Something I've been wondering for a while is how optimistic people feel about the primaries for Democratic presidential candidate.

What I'm wondering is if the person you support in those primaries and the person you think is most likely to win those primaries are the same person, or not; and - a very different question indeed - do you think the person who you support is likely to win.

(To see the difference, imagine that you think your candidate has a 20% chance of winning, and there are 8 other candidates with a 10% chance each. Your candidate is the most likely to win, but still very unlikely to do so).



FWIW, I don't support any candidate in particular; I think Hillary Clinton is much the most likely to win, but that it's still more likely that she will lose.


I'm interested in how the appraisal of candidate X's chances differs between their supporters and others.

Who do you back? What do you think are their chances?